The 2022-2023 Line-Up Prediction Thread...

[Okie_Pat]

I had some time over lunch today to go back and do some research on recruiting rankings the past several years. To anyone asking why we have dropped off some this might give some insight. Recruiting happens in cycles due to scholarships and rosters needs. Similar to what Lee said, recruiting has become more balanced with talent being spread out more, but with that being said OK State has only had 2 top 3 recruiting classes in the last 12 years. This information is based on FLO's rankings.

Recruiting class rankings
2010 #13
2011 #5
2012 #4
2013 #8
2014 #4
2015 #2
2016 #12
2017 #5
2018 #12
2019 #13
2020 #1
2021 #6
2022 #? Probably not in the top 10 with the loss of Anthony Ferrari

Flo's Big Board Rankings for current/potential starters on the roster.
2016 Wyatt Sheet #52
2017 Daton Fix #1
2018 Travis Wittlake #6
2019 Reece Witcraft #24
2020 Dustin Plott #11
2020 Trevor Mastrogiovanni #13
2020 Luke Surber #63
2020 Konner Doucet #89
2021 Victor Voinovich #12
2021 Kyle Haas #18
2021 Carter Young #19
2021 Travis Mastrogiovanni #39
2022 Jordan William #12

In the last 7 years OK State has only had 2 top 10 recruits with Fix and Wittlake. If you want to include AJ Ferrari who was ranked #10 in the 2020 rankings and didn't wrestle his senior year so probably would of been ranked at the top, then we would have 3 top 10 recruits.

I am not concerned with the recruiting class rankings because there are so many variables. But I am with concerned with the current roster individual recruiting rankings. It was said earlier that we are getting good wrestlers, but not great wrestlers. I think this sums up that statement pretty well. We have good wrestlers on our roster with talent, but not enough of the top talent needed to be chasing titles every year. I don't think its a stretch to be wanting to land a top 10 recruit every year with a couple of guys who can develop into AA's. This would make up a roster of 4 or 5 top 10 guys that have a good chance of placing in the top 4 with a few fringe guys who can AA. That's a championship team.

 

[leecothran]

Top 30 in a recruiting class typically means you're top 3 in your weight class.

 

[chasepollard]

Think it's important to note that outside of Spencer Lee, Iowa has the same number of champions in the last 5 years as we do. Actually if you exclude Lee we have one more. They do have a team title, which is a big differentiator.

Also outside of a very small handful of guys... Who has been as dominant as those mentioned from our last run? Spencer Lee, Gable Stevenson, Alex Dieringer, Zain Retherford and Bo Nickal is about all I can think of, really. The sport has grown and the talent is much more evenly spread out now than it used to be. Guys that are really good and may win multiple titles really just get exceptional at one or two things.. and it's usually defense... And that wins for them. Think of Dean Heil or Roman Bravo Young. Neither of those guys were exceptionally dominant... Just really really good at a couple of things that people can't beat.

I would take a team title and ZERO individual titles, for the record.

Yeah, I agree about dominance of then and now. The sport is putting out a more broad level of talent in my opinion? I just don't see how we can't put it together well enough to have a champ with another finalist or two and a few more AA? That right there with the right combo of bonus and when they leave the winners side is enough to be in a serious hunt.

 

[leecothran]

I would take a team title and ZERO individual titles, for the record.

Yeah, I agree about dominance of then and now. The sport is putting out a more broad level of talent in my opinion? I just don't see how we can't put it together well enough to have a champ with another finalist or two and a few more AA? That right there with the right combo of bonus and when they leave the winners side is enough to be in a serious hunt.

I mean seriously the last few years has come down to not being healthy enough. Whole lot of "ifs" here but if you have a healthy Boo Lewallen and a healthy Preston Weigel and a healthy Jacobe Smith and a healthy Chandler Rogers and a healthy Travis Wittlake and a healthy Trevor Mastro and a healthy on and on and on and on.

That's the thing. Need to stay healthy. Don't think it's about training harder or changing styles.

 

[biocowboy]

We have had some bigger recruits not pan out.Yes they were ranked high but for whatever reason they were not character people.Marstellar and AJ are 2 huge misses.

 

[Harleycowboy]

I would take a team title and ZERO individual titles, for the record.

Yeah, I agree about dominance of then and now. The sport is putting out a more broad level of talent in my opinion? I just don't see how we can't put it together well enough to have a champ with another finalist or two and a few more AA? That right there with the right combo of bonus and when they leave the winners side is enough to be in a serious hunt.

The explanation involves bad luck ( injuries, losing AJ meant losing Anthony but a real hard loss was Angelo), RTC lacking and wrestlers who are good recruits not developing to what I called real good wrestlers. Probably lots of others things also. I'll say this again I think the Program needs some real good things to happen because this blow after blow year after year. Hell if things continue like they are even Lee and Dugan might be posting negative stuff.

 

[leecothran]

The explanation involves bad luck ( injuries, losing AJ meant losing Anthony but a real hard loss was Angelo), RTC lacking and wrestlers who are good recruits not developing to what I called real good wrestlers. Probably lots of others things also. I'll say this again I think the Program needs some real good things to happen because this blow after blow year after year. Hell if things continue like they are even Lee and Dugan might be posting negative stuff.

I for sure don't think that everything is perfect and that we don't need some things to change. There are absolutely some things that need to get better. Including the things you mention with development and getting guys to keep their heads on straight. Plus the injury issue. Need to work the transfer portal better.

I just don't think that recruiting is the issue. Recruiting has been pretty good, all things considered.

The RTC issue is being sorted out. We are in the middle of freestyle season right now so you're not going to see any movement. But with a commitment to it I am sure we will see some changes come fall.

 

[chasepollard]

I mean seriously the last few years has come down to not being healthy enough. Whole lot of "ifs" here but if you have a healthy Boo Lewallen and a healthy Preston Weigel and a healthy Jacobe Smith and a healthy Chandler Rogers and a healthy Travis Wittlake and a healthy Trevor Mastro and a healthy on and on and on and on.

That's the thing. Need to stay healthy. Don't think it's about training harder or changing styles.

I can recognize the injury bug. But, at what point do you look at why injuries are happening at a rapid rate?

I know that nutrition and training can help with injuries.

 

[leecothran]

I can recognize the injury bug. But, at what point do you look at why injuries are happening at a rapid rate?

I know that nutrition and training can help with injuries.

Yeah totally agree I think that's an important question. Is it strength and conditioning? We have one of the best in the business in Calcagno. Is it overtraining during the season? I think that's part of it.

I'm not a doctor or an expert though so ultimately it's all just a guess.

 

[osu2082]

We get plenty of top tier talent to come to our program. Lee brings up a good point that we need to do better in the portal as that is a new game changer in all college sports.

The biggest single issue has been our lack of an RTC. The reasons have been hashed plenty of times. The good news is we are taking steps to rectify this issue. Once we can have an RTC in the realm of our competition we will see the same issues. I know we all wish it would happen quicker but things are moving which we all need to get behind.

We all need to pitch in as we can. $5, $10 a month or whatever. It will help solve the issues we are cussing and discussing here IMO.

 

[Okie_Pat]

InterMat Wrestling updated their '22-'23 preseason rankings today. They have Mechler at 157, Sheets at 165, Plott at 174, Wittlake at 184 and Haas at 197.

 

[lawpoke87]

Those rankings paint a bleak picture for Cowboy wrestling this season.

 

[Never Say Die]

InterMat Wrestling updated their '22-'23 preseason rankings today. They have Mechler at 157, Sheets at 165, Plott at 174, Wittlake at 184 and Haas at 197.

Wonder where they got their info?

 

[ionel]

Those rankings paint a bleak picture for Cowboy wrestling this season.

Why so?

 

[Old Number Nine]

Why so?

Trevor - 11
Fix - 2
Young - 13
Voinovich - 18
Melcher - 33
Sheets - 16
Plott - 4
Whitlake - 17
Haas - 32
Surber - 14

Two AA's; same as last year

 

[ionel]

Trevor - 11
Fix - 2
Young - 13
Voinovich - 18
Melcher - 33
Sheets - 16
Plott - 4
Whitlake - 17
Haas - 32
Surber - 14

Two AA's; same as last year

These are simply rankings based on where they finished last year so if only 2 AAs last year then only 2 starting this season top 8. We know all the issues last year, I think letting guys eat and bump up might be a good thing. There's only 1 final year senior in the lineup so this can/should be a fun year just watching how guys develop, top 5 would be nice but why not just enjoy watching guys wrestle and improve this year. I see 2 guys who could via for a title and 4 others who could AA, gonna be tough as always.

 

[lawpoke87]

Why so?

Only two projected AAs. That’s a very bleak year for OSU wrestling unless our standards have changed. We’ve been saying “wait until next year” for a long time now. We’re long overdue for it to be “next year”.

 

[Wrassler17]

That lineup is projected to have 2 AAs and finish 11th with 37 points at Nationals. I think Carter Young will also AA. He had 2 issues last year (w/strength & on bottom) and should have been redshirted. I think he fixes those this year and gets on the podium. If he does, we'll probably finish top 10.

Mastro, Surber & Wittlake (up 2 weights) have a shot, but they'll need to have break through performances. Right now the odds are against them IMO. Voinovich, Mechler & Haas are unknowns, but I'm anxious to see what they can do. Sheets @ 165 might have some problems.

 

[oberebo]

The predictions are no worse than last year and we had multiple injuries that caused real problems or would have finished higher than predicted. With injuries taken care of for the most part I can see 3-4 AA's this year with strong showings from others. I believe for sure that Fix, Plott will AA and both could be in the finals. Mastro at 125 and Young could both AA both as mentioned both will have to do better on the mat and if they have not been working their butts off on getting off the bottom they should have. Witlake was obviously injured last year and if they anticipated him going up two spots to
184 then the weight coach and he should be working right now to make that change. If they are he could surprise at 184 with added strength and better shape. There will be a battle at 149 but in my mind it will be Gfeller. I really do not see any one dropping down to challenge him. It will be a battle-royal at 157 to replace Wyatt if he goes up to 165 but whoever emerges will be more than adequate at that weight. It will probably come down to either Williams or Voinovich. The weak weight in the lineup could be 197. It will be most likely Haas and that will be a tough weight to make his debut.
My opinion is that Surber at heavy will improve by leaps and bounds with added weight and truly good wrestling skills he could place in the top eight and I believe he will.
Is all of the above good enough to place in the top 5? No, I do not believe so but will we place higher than last year, Yes I believe so and I will be in my regular seats every match and at the Big 12 and Nationals cheering on the Cowboys!!

 

[Inky29]

So how is Wittlake going to handle going up two classes? Has he been cutting that much in the past? I know at one point he wrestled 174, years ago, is getting to 184 going to be tough for him?

 

[alex1fly]

The training John Smith employs is noted as extremely different than Cael Sanderson. Penn St. seems to enjoy their playful practices?

I don't know how much I believe the reports that Cael has competitive dodgeball matches instead of technique clinics, but his wrestlers go on the record saying these things.

So do we overtrain and the best undertrains? I don't know? I do know we seem to suffer many injuries. Do we suffer more than others? I don't know?

@alex1fly I agree that I don't enjoy our "style" anymore. Oliver, Scott, Morrison, Pendelton, Erisman and the others of the post 2000's runs had an enjoying style to watch that looked like snipers. Somehow, that has moved into working ties and gutting out a TD to get a match into a short-time win or into overtime?

Glad I'm not the only one remembering things being different. Working ties has become WAY more common for our guys than taking shots. My parents and I used to joke about wrestlers that tie up all the time, calling them Iowa wrestlers or Minnesota wrestlers. Now we're the ones going for the ties by default.

I mean seriously the last few years has come down to not being healthy enough. Whole lot of "ifs" here but if you have a healthy Boo Lewallen and a healthy Preston Weigel and a healthy Jacobe Smith and a healthy Chandler Rogers and a healthy Travis Wittlake and a healthy Trevor Mastro and a healthy on and on and on and on.

Gave me chills thinking about these scenarios, haha
Kaid Brock too. Also Joe Smith. Also Kaden. Dang, we've had quite the run of bad luck with injuries and burnout over the last 5 years.

 

[alex1fly]

The predictions are no worse than last year and we had multiple injuries that caused real problems or would have finished higher than predicted. With injuries taken care of for the most part I can see 3-4 AA's this year with strong showings from others. I believe for sure that Fix, Plott will AA and both could be in the finals. Mastro at 125 and Young could both AA both as mentioned both will have to do better on the mat and if they have not been working their butts off on getting off the bottom they should have. Witlake was obviously injured last year and if they anticipated him going up two spots to
184 then the weight coach and he should be working right now to make that change. If they are he could surprise at 184 with added strength and better shape. There will be a battle at 149 but in my mind it will be Gfeller. I really do not see any one dropping down to challenge him. It will be a battle-royal at 157 to replace Wyatt if he goes up to 165 but whoever emerges will be more than adequate at that weight. It will probably come down to either Williams or Voinovich. The weak weight in the lineup could be 197. It will be most likely Haas and that will be a tough weight to make his debut.
My opinion is that Surber at heavy will improve by leaps and bounds with added weight and truly good wrestling skills he could place in the top eight and I believe he will.
Is all of the above good enough to place in the top 5? No, I do not believe so but will we place higher than last year, Yes I believe so and I will be in my regular seats every match and at the Big 12 and Nationals cheering on the Cowboys!!

Gfeller?

 

[Inky29]

@oberebo Gfeller at 149? Did I miss something where he was coming back? I know he has an extra year (I think) but I thought he'd hung it up. I'd love to have him back.

 

[DPJ]

@oberebo Gfeller at 149? Did I miss something where he was coming back? I know he has an extra year (I think) but I thought he'd hung it up. I'd love to have him back.

Yeah, last I heard was that he had a baby on the way and he was moving on.

 

[Okie_Pat]

Gfeller is done, has taken a job and moved on. Voinovich is the guy at 149 and I think if Sheets is in the lineup he needs to stay at 157 if he has any chance to AA. Some studs from 157 are bumping up to 165 this year and that weight is stacked! I continue to believe that Surber should cut back down to his natural weight at 197 and let the rest of the guys wrestle at the weights they are used to. Wittlake is recovery from a major knee injury so I'm not sure how he is going to look period regardless if he's at 184 or 165. We haven't seen much of him yet, but I definitely think that Travis Mastro is being overlooked for the spot at 157 if we do bump everyone up.

 

[oberebo]

Gfeller is done, has taken a job and moved on. Voinovich is the guy at 149 and I think if Sheets is in the lineup he needs to stay at 157 if he has any chance to AA. Some studs from 157 are bumping up to 165 this year and that weight is stacked! I continue to believe that Surber should cut back down to his natural weight at 197 and let the rest of the guys wrestle at the weights they are used to. Wittlake is recovery from a major knee injury so I'm not sure how he is going to look period regardless if he's at 184 or 165. We haven't seen much of him yet, but I definitely think that Travis Mastro is being overlooked for the spot at 157 if we do bump everyone up.

 

[oberebo]

Did not know about Gfeller. He could have been a lot better than he showed so it is sad but that happens. So with him gone, I think it will be Voinovich at 149 and I agree Mastro would probably be at 157. I humbly disagree about Surber. He is tall enough to be a heavyweight and he has put on pounds and muscle to make that weight and he is the best option for us at that weight. However, if he does go down to 197 and I do not think he will, he would definitely be the best option there but in a much tougher weight class and while I think Doucet could be our heavyweight he IMO does not have as good a chance at that weight as does Surber to AA.

 

[leecothran]

Glad I'm not the only one remembering things being different. Working ties has become WAY more common for our guys than taking shots. My parents and I used to joke about wrestlers that tie up all the time, calling them Iowa wrestlers or Minnesota wrestlers. Now we're the ones going for the ties by default.

Gave me chills thinking about these scenarios, haha
Kaid Brock too. Also Joe Smith. Also Kaden. Dang, we've had quite the run of bad luck with injuries and burnout over the last 5 years.

That's the thing... Luck has to cycle back our way at some point!

And by "luck" I mean you control what you can. Training and having fun should be the most important things, in my opinion. If you can get those things tightened up, you're likely to reduce the burnout and the injury issues.

The talent is there. It just is. I know some people on here are expert talent scouts and think that top 30 p4p recruits aren't actually good... But come on. We've had the dudes. Just need to keep them in the game.

 

[alex1fly]

That's the thing... Luck has to cycle back our way at some point!

And by "luck" I mean you control what you can. Training and having fun should be the most important things, in my opinion. If you can get those things tightened up, you're likely to reduce the burnout and the injury issues.

The talent is there. It just is. I know some people on here are expert talent scouts and think that top 30 p4p recruits aren't actually good... But come on. We've had the dudes. Just need to keep them in the game.

Yeah imagine the lineup a few years ago with Gfeller and Joe Smith not burned out, Chandler not getting bumped out, Weigel not being hurt, Boo not being hurt, and Kaid not being hurt. I mean that's 6 potential AAs that basically sat out for several years. I've said it before but it's amazing that we've done as well as we have given the dramatic changes in the lineup.

 

[alex1fly]

@alex1fly I agree that I don't enjoy our "style" anymore. Oliver, Scott, Morrison, Pendelton, Erisman and the others of the post 2000's runs had an enjoying style to watch that looked like snipers.

I was thinking about this last night. Our style was pretty unique in the 90s and 2000s. Guys would come in and try to tie up, and we'd just bounce around them and get takedowns. We simply didn't engage with our opponents, just didn't let them get in there and work their offense. It was definitely a sharpshooter kind of mentality - keep your opponent away from you, and then get the takedown from space when they rush in or quickly do it in the tie-up. It's like we knew their game, and we didn't let them play it which was wildly successful. In contrast now Cael is the main one that knows the game and how to play around it, while we've relegated ourselves to just playing the game. I know that's a bunch of metaphorical talk but that's kind of how I remember it.

Guys that are really good and may win multiple titles really just get exceptional at one or two things.. and it's usually defense... And that wins for them. Think of Dean Heil or Roman Bravo Young. Neither of those guys were exceptionally dominant... Just really really good at a couple of things that people can't beat.

Good point. AJ too. Taken down once that entire year right? So great defense. And was among the strongest, if not the strongest, in the weight class so was able to get the 1 or 2 takedowns he needed for the big wins.

 

[chasepollard]

@alex1fly

It seems like Wrestling was changed by Askren and the funky scrambling. The only way to beat that guy was by not getting into a scramble...so don't shoot.

As the competition became more stout at scrambling, I think our style had to change? Scoring from distance almost meant you were going to have to scramble.

They era we are talking about was most definitely about being a sniper. Level changes, movement, opening...BOOM, in on a deep shot. But it also differed a bit with some of the talent from those times? I don't remember Johnny Thompson being a "slick" technician? He could be slick, but he was going to power double or force a shot into a snake. Kindig, same. Crutchmer, same. But, for the most part, you had a bunch of slick Wrestlers during that era.

Currently, I am not sure how you need to recruit, coach and Wrestle? IMO, scrambling ruined our style.

 

[leecothran]

Kaid Brock, Boo, a lot of those guys were really slick technical wrestlers. Dean Heil was elite in scrambles... So much so that they changed the damn rules on him.

 

[leecothran]

Level changes is what John Smith excelled at teaching forever and he taught the rest of the sport how to do it really well too.

Iowa has always been a forward motion, driving, domineering style.

Cael adapted a lot of his stuff from what Bobby Douglas was teaching him and obviously Bobby spent time in John's corner in the 80s along with the Schultz's.

There just aren't many secrets anymore. Aside from whatever Cael is doing to keep dudes from burning out and getting too injured.

Again... Our biggest weaknesses.

 

[vhsalum]

Level changes is what John Smith excelled at teaching forever and he taught the rest of the sport how to do it really well too.

Iowa has always been a forward motion, driving, domineering style.

Cael adapted a lot of his stuff from what Bobby Douglas was teaching him and obviously Bobby spent time in John's corner in the 80s along with the Schultz's.

There just aren't many secrets anymore. Aside from whatever Cael is doing to keep dudes from burning out and getting too injured.

Again... Our biggest weaknesses.

Has John or staff ever acknowledged that training needs to be addressed?

 

[lawpoke87]

Level changes is what John Smith excelled at teaching forever and he taught the rest of the sport how to do it really well too.

Iowa has always been a forward motion, driving, domineering style.

Cael adapted a lot of his stuff from what Bobby Douglas was teaching him and obviously Bobby spent time in John's corner in the 80s along with the Schultz's.

There just aren't many secrets anymore. Aside from whatever Cael is doing to keep dudes from burning out and getting too injured.

Again... Our biggest weaknesses.

Hard to imagine other programs won’t start copying Cael’s training methods. Heck….maybe they have. The success speaks for itself.

 

[osu2082]

Cael is an elite developer. He turns high level prospects into national championships and many into just monsters on the mat.

Whether that is just the RTC, his mental approach, training approach or a combination of the above it has elevated that program well above everyone else.

If we don’t bridge that gap it will only grow wider. The positive news (and we need to continue) is there are signs we are learning and evolving. John has said he needs to re-evaluate his approach and we are finally seeing some movement on the RTC.

For all cowboy fans we need this to work and get behind it.

 

[alex1fly]

Level changes is what John Smith excelled at teaching forever and he taught the rest of the sport how to do it really well too.

Iowa has always been a forward motion, driving, domineering style.

Cael adapted a lot of his stuff from what Bobby Douglas was teaching him and obviously Bobby spent time in John's corner in the 80s along with the Schultz's.

There just aren't many secrets anymore. Aside from whatever Cael is doing to keep dudes from burning out and getting too injured.

Again... Our biggest weaknesses.

Just being heady, it'd be interesting to predict the next pioneering "thing" in wrestling that nobody else is doing yet but will help folks reign supreme for a while. John Smith had level changes and the low single. Cael has his training methods. What's next?

 

[leecothran]

Just being heady, it'd be interesting to predict the next pioneering "thing" in wrestling that nobody else is doing yet but will help folks reign supreme for a while. John Smith had level changes and the low single. Cael has his training methods. What's next?

I think rule changes are also going to play a big part in this. There's some push to try to help protect guy's knees and other ligaments as the "funky style" can lead to guys getting into precarious positions... we've been on the bad end of that a few times. I think that diving over a guy's back and grabbing an ankle should be stalling... I don't think that just pushing a guy out of bounds a la Austin Desanto should be rewarded. The biggest evolutions honestly might just come from rules changes.

I also have a theory that it will be athletes that compete across multiple grappling sports. Spencer Lee is obviously well trained in Judo... Steve Mocco was a junior national champion and I think world medalist in Judo. Those that train Jiu-Jitsu, Judo... even footwork heavy sports like fencing or taekwondo... I think folks who excel in those sports will excel in wrestling.

 

[je55m00r3]

guys who could be competitive.

This level of fan expectation says a lot about the state of program.

 

[ionel]

Hard to imagine other programs won’t start copying Cael’s training methods. Heck….maybe they have. The success speaks for itself.

Cael's wasn't just training methods, he significantly raised the level of operating outside of the rules, took what Brands was doing & raised it to another level.