ADVERTISEMENT

NCAA qualifications

O

Orangebomber

All-Big12
May 29, 2001
1,670
88
48
Is it to early to start looking at qualifications? Can someone understands the new system comment?

125 - ranked so I would assume he has a good chance. Highest ranked Big 12
133 - Does he have to win the Big 12? Tough chore with Brewer
141 - Chances are improving. Is he highest ranked Big 12?
149 - Should be in
157 - similar to 141
165 - Should be in
174 - Crutchmer should give us a chance
184 - looking good but still work to do
197 - doubt we qualify
HWT - Should be in

I am thinking our best bet is 9
 
I think we get 9 at least and there is a chance for 10. We would need Bean to improve a bit and get the third seed at big 12s. If he is third seed he would face Smith from WV who he lost to 3-1 in the dual. If he is fourth seed he faces Gadsen first, and I only think Big 12 gets 2 from 197.
 
I would agree with April that we will have 9 qualify. Doubtful at 197 but anything is possible. He would have to beat Gadsen or J'Den Cox in his first match which is not about to happen even through my orange colored glasses.
 
Obe, I know it feels wrong, but Missouri is now in the Mac. As of now the big 12 has 2 spots at 97. Gadsen will be 1 seed and smith will probably be the 2. It all comes down to where OSU and ou are seeded. I haven't checked ou results lately, so not sure how it will go. If bean, assuming the spot is his, gets the 3 seed I think he has a chance to win. If he is the 4 and gets Gadsen then he's not qualifying.




I just went and looked at Bean and Dixons results. I'm assuming those are the guys to follow. Bean has had rough schedule lately, 4 of last 6 were against Schiller, cox and Gadsen. He has dixon and Woods of Wyoming coming up. If he can win those I think he could get 3 seed. Also noticed Schafer majored him in Reno. This weight is an enigma to me. Dixon had a nice win over Boykin of NC State. Boykin looked promising earlier, but has seemed to struggle a bit lately. He did not wrestle for them this weekend, not sure what's up there. It will be interesting to see if he wrestles when the pokes got out to NC.
This post was edited on 1/26 5:18 PM by april racer
 
April, you are correct Old thinking by an old thinker. We do have the 2nd bedlam at OU to defeat Dixon which would give him the third seed and he would not have to face Gadsen in the first round. This makes that match very important to both wrestlers.
 
I think he needs to beat Dixon in Bedlam to get the third seed. Dixon has an official record of 3-4 according to the OU website. He lost to Jake smith of West Va. 0-4,md Michel Boykin of NC State 11-0, MD Michael Oxley of Hofstra 12-1, dec. Brent Dempsey of American 7-3, lost to Austin Schafer 1-3, lost to J.Eblen of Mo. 1-3 and lost to Scott Owen of Cornell 5-6.
Surely, a head up win over Dixon would earn him the 3 seed.
 
Originally posted by knoblock:
Would 9 give the Pokes any chance at the NCAA's?
Click to expand...
10 won't give us any better chance than 9 because I don't see 197 scoring any points. I would think you need 4-6 all americans depending on the number of wrestlers in the finals and bonus point. The current problem is we don't seem to score a lot of bonus points. Penn State won the SS and I don't think they had a champion but they scored a lot of bonus points.
 
For OSU to have a chance at nationals we would have to have so many things go out way. Next year is the year we have a good chance. Iowa is so balanced and minny has 4 potential finalists with some other AAs in play. For the pokes to make a run, kindig and Marsden would both need to make finals, AD would need to bonus all the way through and we would need klimara, Heil, Collica, Crutchmer and Boyd to AA. It is not out of the question for iowa to have 10 AAs, I don't think it will happen, but there isn't one guy on the team I would be surprised by. So not only do we need an amazing run we need to have some teams underperform. All that being said, come march I will have my orange tinted glasses on and be downing my orange kool aid by the keg and rooting for that exact thing to happen.

Also as far as the PSU scoring all that bonus at the SS was a bit of an anomy. Kade Moss had 10 matches and scored over 20 points.

I agree that there isn't much difference addind the 20 guy, but it would be great for him and if he could pull off s couple wins it could help.
 
Never one to look reality in the face and accept it I hold out hope for a strong second half of the season and to peaking right before nationals. Truthfully, my train of expectations left the station fairly empty. However, I would like to tap into that keg of orange kool aid that April is drinking. After several healthy slugs of it I can foresee the following happening.

Eddie Klimara will continue to improve and will attain All-American status, something that he almost achieved last year.
I expect Gary Wayne to qualify and get some valuable points for us at the tournament. Dean Heil appears on the cusp of several big wins and will also AA.

I can not drink enough Kool-Aid to predict that Kindig will again be in the finals. If I had to pick one wrestler currently ranked in the top eight at a weight that might not AA it would be Josh. Josh has done everything asked of him and more and is a talented wrestler but my feeling is that he is a 141 pounder and always has been. I pray that I am wrong in this assessment.

No doubt that Collica is undersized at 157 but I expect him to wrestle well and pick up some wins and points at Nationals. I do not think there is anyone within a major decision of Alex and he will repeat as National champion with a lot of bonus points.

Kyle Crutchmer will win some points for us at nationals and may have it in him to upset higher ranked wrestlers.
Nolan Boyd is the hardest worker on the team and he has gone a long way this year in improving his skills to go with his innate drive and heart. Too many strong wrestlers at the top in this weight and he may have to wait until next year to explode into a finals contender.

Austin Marsden despite a little slump in his last two matches will All-American and could be in finals.

Does the above vault us into contention. No but I look for a strong showing leading to a very high finish next year.
 
Hopefully Iowa tanks at the end of the year...because they look strong and I too, wouldn't be surprised by any weight achieving AA status. They might actually AA at ten weights if the tourney was held this weekend.

We could have a disappointing March this year? 33, 41, 74 and 97 seem like a reach to score many points. 57 and 84 are not likely to AA. 49 Wrestles everybody too close, and he could underachieve. Really, as it stands at this moment, the only sure fire AAs are 165 and HWT.

Now, by March, my views would most definitely change...they always do. The week before the tourney I will claim that we have a chance to AA at 8 or 9 weights with three champs. How I truly feel about march at this point;

125 - AA
133 - points
141 - points
149 - AA
157 - AA
165 - Champ
174 - points
184 - AA
197 - ?
Hwt - AA
 
Chase the one thing I strongly disagree with are your thoughts on 74. The one thing I have been waiting for is the spot to get settled, it appears it has.. Now KC needs to get as much mat time as possible. In his first action in almost a month he lost by 1 point on the road to the sixth ranked wrestler. He then beat another ranked wrestler on the road. This weight has gone from one I thought was a major hole to borderline AA. It is a very top heavy weight, but if he can land the 9 or 10 seed I think he has a chance.

Also I wonder how much of anything he has been able to do if he was on crutches.
 
Like you, I've gone from "nothing" at NCAAs to, "he's gonna score some points!" But, I am not to the point where I will trick myself into thinking he is an AA yet.

Give me a break, Jamaal Parks broke me on "sure fire" AAs.
 
So are you guys hearing anything about the Big 12 not being a qualifier? Was told that if 2 would get auto berths at 197, the NCAA will only put out 27 auto bids instead of 29 and there will be 6 at large berths which every Big 12 wrestlers will have to compete for. So stealing berths is not a guarantee this year.
 
I'm not sure what the deal with big 12 qualifying is, but I think that I had remembered the proposal incorrectly. I found the proposal and it sounds like it was that the winners of the weights would not automatically qualify. I was thinking that we would not get automatic spots based on gold and silver qualifications. If that is the case I don't think it really affect the conference much anyway. There is not a weight now nor do I ever foresee a situation where the big 12 does not have a gold or silver level wrestler at each weight.
 
from SHP via themat: Why Seeding Matters and How It Works


This year, any bids earned by the Big 12 will go to the at-large pool. Every Big 12 wrestler, including Alex Dieringer, will have to earn an at-large bid, however, if the Big 12 would otherwise earn two automatic qualifiers at a weight, there would instead by 27 automatic bids and 6 at-large bids at that weight.

Results in prior years' NCAA Championships counts for exactly 0% in the allocation of automatic bids. The three metrics that matter are winning percentage, coaches' ranking, and RPI, all of which have equal weight. The thresholds move up and down in conjunction with each other to determine the location of the 29 automatic bids at each weight class, minus whatever the Big 12 would otherwise earn.
 
I believe we will have more than one wrestler who does not achieve Gold and/or Silver status and would have to be selected as an at large. Gary Wayne Harding would be one that would probably not achieve that status . His overall record is good but RPI and ranking would not be. Obviously, 197 would be another. The conference tournament in Ames is superfluous as it has been for several years.
 
Ok, I read it again and now I see that the proposal is big 12 only gets at large bids. If that is still the situation, why not compete in WCC if possible?
 
125 - Top six AA
133 - 2-4 points
141 - 2-4 points
149 - Top eight AA
157 - 1-2 points
165 - NCAA Champion
174 - 1-2 points
184 - 2-4 points
197 - Won't qualify
Hwt - Top six AA

OSU finishes in seventh place
 
The problem with the WWC is how weak that qualifier is. A few weights are probably on going to get the champion as a berth, so it is tough to steal a berth. Not sure what WV and Oklahoma are thinking at a few weights where even a good showing at Big 12 might not get certain wrestlers a berth. I think Iowa State is pretty solid at 6 weights and close with the other 4 but needing a little work. Ok State seems pretty solid at 7 also and 2 real close with 197 needing some work.
This post was edited on 2/3 8:53 AM by buf87
 
There seems to be some confusion on the Big 12 wrestlers. Bottom line is, they ALL have to earn at large spots. Not even conference champs are automatics. No more waiver as a four-team NCAA qualifying event, so the conference will not have locked up any spots going into the March 7 weekend. Makes it a little sticky for some Big 12 wrestlers who earn gold or silver status but have to wait and see if gold and silvers get upset at conference tournaments. If several upsets occurred at one weight, could be interesting. Some silvers could get left out.
 
Thanks for the clarification. I think April has been saying all along that there are no automatic qualifications for any wrestler in the Big 12. This is not to say that Gold wrestlers like Alex and Austin will not qualify but others like a Gary
Wayne Harding will find their path to the NCAA more difficult.
 
I agree - there definitely could be weights where a big XII guys just scrapes into being Silver, does fine at Big XIIs, and then misses St. Louis due to lots of upsets happening elsewhere. As a Big XII fan I'm going to be cheering hard for all the other tournaments to go to chalk.

I'm really disappointed with the Big XII for the lack of a release clearly explaining the situation and their plan for this year. I had been holding out hope they were waiting to hear back on getting this pushed out a year but that doesn't seem to be the case.

There are a lot of questions to answer - for example, for the purposes of being a Bronze qualifier for an at-large spot, if a wrestler finished third at a weight class where there were two Gold/Silver wrestlers, will they be considered to have finished one spot below automatic qualification? That's one of the determining legs for Bronze status.
 
It's really sad to think think it might take a couple of diserving wrestlers missing the NCAA for Smith and the rest of the "Big 12" wrestling coaches to finally do something about joining a wrestling conference. I guess this is as good a year as any for it to happen since we probably are not going to compete for the title anyway.
 
Ok, so now I got it. The big 12 lost automatic qualifier status, so that means the pool for automatic picks goes from 290 to 270 and there will now be 6 at-large picks per weight, 27 autos per weight. Below is the list of the conferences that have automatic qualifiers. For some of our wrestlers going to the west regional might be helpful. I will touch on the two guys that seem the most likely to suffer form the new arrangement.

GWH: There is only one ranked wrestler for the west regional currently ranked, Jade Raiser of Utah valley ranked 26. I have compared his matches to GWH and I don't see why GWH could not win this weight at the west regional and pick up one of auto bids. That being said, the way GWH is wrestling I would not be surprised to see him move up and be more secure for an at large.

Luke Bean: The west has 2 wrestlers ranked currently, Woods (15) and Rotert (20). One of the things needed for an at large pick is to achieve Bronze status. For that a wrestler must accomplish Two of the following:

Top 33 RPI (Rating Percentage Index) Note: To be considered for RPI ranking, a wrestler must have a minimum of 17 Division I matches at a given weight class.Top 33 coaches ranking (2/22/12 measure).700 winning percentage against all competitionOne win against a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via an earned positionQualifying event placement one below automatic qualification
It might help Beans chances if he placed at least third in the west regional.


Both of these wrestlers have tough weights at Big 12, Harding has Brewer and Hall, Bean has Gadsen and Smith. Even of they can pull off upsets of any of them it wilt guarantee them a spot like in the past, but if they did well at the west regional they might be able to grab one of the auto spots.

ACC, Big 10, EIWA, EWL, MAC, PAC 12, Suthern, and the west regional.
 
Really makes very little difference if we qualify 6 or 10 we only have 3 guys who will score any major points and even if Bean qualifies he will not score points. Boyd has no chance to AA the way he wrestles, Eddie who is certainly no shoe in to AA but should score some points and Kindig is certainly no guarantee either but should score some points also Marsden could be in the finals or he could lose in the round of 12 and not place. Alex is our only sure thing as I do not see him losing to anyone out there but outside Alex we are in BIG trouble this year. I will be more surprised if we finish top 10 than if we don`t finish in the top 10 with these 10 kids.
I guess the good news is we will finish well ahead of OU as they may only have 1 AA this year but there will not be much if any good news coming from St. Louis for this OSU team unless something changes drastically in the next few weeks.
You so called in the know guys were posting how much Shaffer and Boyd had improved over the off season and Shaffer can`t even make the starting line-up and Nolan looks like the same old no defense Nolan to me so not sure how much you insiders really know about this team.
 
Much of what you write is correct and on the subject of Schafer you have my complete agreement. If you are referring tome as one of the "insiders" I will readily admit that my early predictions are far from accurate. However, you are too hard on Nolan Boyd in my opinion. Yes, he still has room for improvement and still makes mistakes but he is also the type of wrestler and person who can shine in the spotlight. If you remember Stroh was ranked 6th the first time he and Nolan met and Nolan took him apart. This time out Nolan tried to out muscle him and it did not work. However, Stroh is a very good wrestler and despite Nolan's mistakes he lost by only one and they are 1-1 on the season.

I can and should take the heat but never said I was an insider just an ardent fan. You are correct Alex is the only sure bet but I still Eddie and Austin at the two ends of our lineup are good bets to AA. Dean Heil and Josh Kindig are on the bubble in my opinion as to whether they AA this year. Kyle Crutchmer is an outside shot to AA. We should have a lot of help coming in next year but I agree this year is not looking good for a top five finish. We may not be top ten but I prefer to believe we will be-that is not insider talk but fan optimism. I apologize for all the "insiders" that made comments to piss you off and I am sure they will strive to do better in the future.

LETS GO POKES!!!
 
First off not an insider either. Lots to respond to, and I hope thenot top 10 talk was hyperbole. People can be down on this team, but nobody can name 10 that will finish higher than the pokes. Even though it seems like a down year 8 of the 10 are ranked in the coaches top 20. Not a lot of teams can claim that. AD by himself would place top 20. I think GWH will sneak up there. Let's hold judgement until after nationals.

This post was edited on 2/8 9:34 AM by april racer
 
Originally posted by april racer:
Ok, so now I got it. The big 12 lost automatic qualifier status, so that means the pool for automatic picks goes from 290 to 270 and there will now be 6 at-large picks per weight, 27 autos per weight. Below is the list of the conferences that have automatic qualifiers. For some of our wrestlers going to the west regional might be helpful. I will touch on the two guys that seem the most likely to suffer form the new arrangement.
Click to expand...
Not quite...if the Big 12 would have earned 4 automatic bids, there will be 25 automatic bids and 8 at-larges, if 3, 26/7, if 2, 27/6, if 1, 28/5, and if the Big 12 would have otherwise been shut out at the weight, 29 autos and 4 at-larges.
 
You're a little off there. The Big XII lost automatic qualifier status several years ago, but was allowed to continue with an agreement that if there were no Silver/Gold level wrestlers at a weight class the champion would not receive an autobid, which almost happened at 125 a year or two ago. The change for this year (and I'm going partially off what SetonHallPirate has posted because I have never seen an official statement) is that any Silver/Gold spots earned by a Big XII wrestler will be held back in the at-large pool and not awarded until after all tournaments are over. Which means all Big XII wrestlers will be in the same at-large pool as anybody who gets upset elsewhere or was on the fringe of earning a spot. It shouldn't matter to anybody who is highly ranked, but it could mean that a fringe Silver guy who normally would have had a clear path to NCAAs could end up at home if there are a lot of upsets at conference tournaments.

But what that means for the at-large pool is that it will be different for individual weights - if there is a weight where only one Big XII wrestler is Silver/Gold then the pool will increase to 5. If there are two Silver/Gold Big XII guys it will increase to 6, and so on (again, this is based off the info from SHP). It isn't increasing by a set number of 2 for all weights.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

B

Predicted seeds for NCAAs?

Replies
69
Views
4K
34 and counting
lincolnhs
L
O

Rankings by Wrestlestat and Flo for Big 12 and Iowa 2/19/24

Replies
2
Views
461
34 and counting
bwel9339
bwel9339
M

B10 vs B12

Replies
3
Views
795
34 and counting
AZ poke
A
D

OK State vs Iowa Predictions

Replies
66
Views
5K
34 and counting
west2east
W
O

Bedlam matchups

Replies
81
Views
5K
34 and counting
Rdcldad
Rdcldad
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back