There are now an estimated 30,000 Wagner troops in Belarus, they have been there since "the attempted coup". I have thought from the start that the "coup" was a fake to give an excuse for these troops to be in Belarus, and to give them the appearance of being out of Russia's control, but whether that is true or not it really doesn't matter, they are there..... There have been two statements made lately that I thought were out of place at the time, the first was made by Belarusian President Victor Lukashenko when he stated that the tactical nuclear weapons Russia placed in his country were fully under his control. The second was Putin stating that "an attack on Belarus, is an attack on Russia"......those two statements are a setup. I think The Wagner military are going to try to take the Suwalki corridor. The corridor connects the Russian Enclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic to Belarus by land, it is NATO territory, but very lightly guarded, it runs through parts of Poland and the Baltic countries. Taking the corridor would be a win-win for Putin. Politically it could fracture NATO......are all NATO countries going to risk a direct confrontation with Russia for a small strip of land in the Baltic counties? It would test Article 5, An attack on any NATO member is an attack on all....... access to the corridor in some interpretations is considered Russia's right. If NATO did respond, Putin could say NATO started it by attacking Belarus and the only way Belarus could defend itself would be by using the Nuclear weapons.......Russia would keep their hands clean while Belarus carried out Nuclear strikes against NATO targets. Now, we know where the ten nuclear capable aircraft are that Russia moved to Belarus, and I am sure Russia only transferred a small number of weapons (probably only three or four). Belarus would disperse the aircraft ( and weapons) prior to moving in to the corridor, otherwise we would just take out the aircraft. My big concern would be whether NATO would be willing to take out these aircraft prior to them being dispersed. Once they are dispersed it would be almost impossible to know where they are. This whole scenario would really test NATO resolve to the limit........this was all just a thought