I think I found why Pubs are talking about Virginia

[aix_xpert]

Virginia doesn't break out the party affiliation for its early ballot data. However, they do break out ballot data by congressional district. Virginia has 11 congressional districts: 5 are Republican held (1,2,5,6,9) and Dems have 6 (3,4,7,8,10,11). If you compare the vote counts by district, something very interesting shows up. Every Republican district has already surpassed 50% of their 2020 total vote. Not 1 Democrat-held district has reached 50% yet. Now many of the Dem districts have a larger denominator based on the vote totals from 2020 and there is no guarantee that Republican-held districts voted Republican in this election. Nor do I think it will be enough for the Pubs to carry the state. But it is an interesting phenomenon which would likely indicate higher enthusiasm for the Pubs out the gate. Full numbers and sourcing below. (Rounding applied)

Republican Districts: (Total votes as of yesterday/Final Total for 2020)

CD1: 163K/293K - 55.6%
CD2: 116K/220K - 52.7%
CD5: 136K/233K - 58.4%
CD6: 122K/211K - 57.8%
CD9: 114K/173K - 65.9%

Democrat Districts:

CD3: 80K/224K - 35.7%
CD4: 112K/258K - 43.4%
CD7: 124K/287K - 43.2%
CD8: 125K/304K - 41.1%
CD10: 133K/334K - 39.8%
CD11: 134K/282K - 47.5%

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[2012Bearcat]

Republicans have much more voter enthusiasm that Democrats this election cycle. The people are starting to wake up to the MSM and they no longer believe their BS.

 

[OUSOONER67]

Republicans have much more voter enthusiasm that Democrats this election cycle. The people are starting to wake up to the MSM and they no longer believe their BS.

Not having any money and paying higher prices for everything is a strong motivator for change. A lot of people tell me their business is struggling and that its the worst they have seen it in 30 to 40 yrs and many are an inch away from having to close up for good.

 

[LAY THE WOODY]

Have we not seen so many bankruptcies since the sleepy administration took the helm? I don't think so.

 

[skylinepoke]

I believe the Pubs have a realistic chance in Virginia. I see where Trump is trying to set up a rally in the Norfolk area next week which is unusual for the dem State.
If Trump could win Virginia, he can let the Dems cheat in a couple of swing states and still break even in the electoral college.

 

[fatman76]

Not having any money and paying higher prices for everything is a strong motivator for change. A lot of people tell me their business is struggling and that its the worst they have seen it in 30 to 40 yrs and many are an inch away from having to close up for good.

First year since 2012 my company won’t hit bonus.

And I know that sounds like “first world problems” but when you get a source of income for over a decade it hardly feels “extra”.

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

Not having any money and paying higher prices for everything is a strong motivator for change. A lot of people tell me their business is struggling and that its the worst they have seen it in 30 to 40 yrs and many are an inch away from having to close up for good.

Morgan-Chase tells me we see an all time record $1.1 trillion in credit card debt. People are running up debt so they can eat, not buy patio furniture. my_20mills told us the middle class is now doing better than under Trump. I still haven't stopped laughing!!!!!

 

[LAY THE WOODY]

First year since 2012 my company won’t hit bonus.

And I know that sounds like “first world problems” but when you get a source of income for over a decade it hardly feels “extra”.

Workin folk understand this. Then there's Obama, sleepy and kamalla folk. Waiting on them stimulus checks!

 

[iasooner24]

Greed Nude Eeeel

 

[tlwwake]

Virginia, New Hampshire, and New Mexico are in play…

 

[aix_xpert]

As of 10/26, Congressional District 11 passed the 50% mark vs. their 2020 turnout. That's the first of the Dem districts to do so, but is a very blue districts (2-1 Dem in the 2022 election). No other Dem district is there yet. Every Repub district had passed the 50% marker 3 days ago.

Dems have a huge numbers advantage in Virginia, so this results may not result in a win, but the turnout differences there and in NV have to be promising to the Repubs nationally.