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Coronavirus: What’s next?

You literally have know way of knowing if I do or not but don’t believe me believe Dr. Fuaci.
I do though, because experts haven't come to a consensus on whether it will slow down or not in the Summer. However, we do have past viral illnesses to base the assumption on.
 
I've been told the best scientists in the world can't answer that until warmer weather. No questioning you, but Just curious the source?
He's just hoping he's right, he literally wants America to fail. This global pandemic is the only shot he has of his party gaining power. He's hoping for millions of Americans to die, just to stick it to conservatives.
 
Direct Quote today from Dr. Fauci:

“The wild card here is that this is a brand new virus, this novel coronavirus, and we do not know if it’s going to diminish as the weather gets warm. We can’t count on that,” he said.
Oh look. @Pokeabear caught lying again. #HateToSeeIt
 
Me looking for @Pokeabear after he gets called out for lying in back-to-back posts.

giphy.gif
 
What? He literally said you were wrong.
Ho lee shieet. You are frustratingly stupid, or I'm being trolled.

Let me recap this for you:

I say the weather COULD slow the virus.

It could flame out during the summer and bounce back in the fall just in time for football season.

You say the weather has NO AFFECT on the virus.

The weather has no affect on this virus!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I say, experts DON'T AGREE if it will have an affect or not.

You have no way of knowing this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Experts don't agree on whether it will slow down or not in warmer weather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But most other viral illnesses suggest it will slow down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You imply Dr. Fauci said the weather has no affect on the virus.

You literally have know way of knowing if I do or not but don’t believe me believe Dr. Fuaci.

Dr. Fauci says we don't know if the weather has any affect on the virus.

You spoke in an absolute, and you were absolutely wrong. Own up to being wrong for once in your life dude.
 
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“We have to assume that the virus will continue to have the capacity to spread,” Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s health emergencies program, said at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva. “It’s a false hope to say, yes, that it will disappear like the flu.”

“We hope it does. That would be a godsend,” he added. “But we can’t make that assumption. And there is no evidence.” https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/its...-the-flu-who-says.html?recirc=taboolainternal

Ones job is being held by the President who is obsessed with how this will affect his election. The other works for the WHO.
Do you still not see how that proves my point, and not yours? You claimed the weather has "NO AFFECT" on the virus. Literally no one else is claiming that. Even your link that you provided suggests that the weather could have an affect on it. But of course the WHO is treating it like it won't wane in the summer at all, as they should.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...virus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/

Viruses that cause influenza or milder coronavirus colds do tend to subside in warmer months because these types of viruses have what scientists refer to as “seasonality,” so the president’s comments have some scientific backing. But it’s highly uncertain that SARS-CoV-2 will behave the same way. Those currently studying the disease say their research is too early to predict how the virus will respond to changing weather. (See how coronavirus compares to flu, Ebola and other outbreaks.)

“I hope it will show seasonality, but it’s hard to know,” says Stuart Weston, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, where the virus is being actively studied.
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-covid-19-coronavirus-and-seasonality/

Dr Michael Skinner, Reader in Virology, Imperial College London, said:

“My considered opinion (with no guarantees until we know more) is that its physical nature means that it will probably become seasonal when it eventually settles down to the normal patterns of transmission we see for the other human respiratory coronaviruses (i.e. in a population that consists of immune and immunologically naive individuals).

https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2020-03-10-coronavirus-seasons-what-we-know-dont-know

The short answer is that a summertime lull in this coronavirus is possible – but it’s far from a sure thing, and any benefits might be limited.
 
What about Italy?

One of my good friends and co-workers lives in Milan, and I spent about 30 minutes this morning talking to him about it (since as of today Austin now has 4 confirmed cases, all in the last 12 hours). I was always skeptical that western countries/governments would have the willpower to do what China has done to lock down Wuhan's province....it sounds like they may not be far behind. According to my friend:

- as we know, literally nothing is open across Italy other than groceries, pharmacies, and (in a very limited function) post offices and some banks
- if he or his wife want to leave their house, they must have paperwork with them that specifies the reason they are outside their home
- he has 100% given up driving his vehicle, because police checkpoints every few blocks make vehicle transportation impossible (since the goal is to ensure random idiots don't take the virus outside of Lombardy)
- they can't even take walks in parks or empty areas, as police/military patrols intercept them and send them back home
- when he walks to the grocery store, the people have to queue up outside (and far apart from one another) while the limited # of shoppers inside do their thing and exit/enter 1-by-1....according to him this is very time consuming

Basically his views are that as long as basic essentials like food is available, this situation is better than what could happen although it's becoming increasingly restricted by government/city officials daily and there are concerns it is out of control to some extent. He is also disturbed about how fragile our social/cultural system is in times like this, how quickly things can degrade and of course the underlying fear of the infection permeating the city.
 
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"We have to "assume" and "We can't make that assumption" and "there is no evidence yet" and "We hope"

is F*CKING LIGHT YEARS AWAY FROM the weather will have no effect on this virus (absolute statement)
 
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Yes my succulent and simple statement was meant to correct the false assumptions that the weather would take care of it propagated by the White House. It won’t. Glad you agree.
You were wrong, I’m even more embarrassed for you now. How far you going to dig yourself into this hole?
 
My wife is a RN at Children's Hospital Los Angeles. She just told me they have their first confirmed case there.
 
My wife is a RN at Children's Hospital Los Angeles. She just told me they have their first confirmed case there.
My sister works at Stanford Children's in San Fran area and they had a lady give birth then test positive. Kinda of a crazy ordeal.
 
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I get the moronic takes early on. But at this point anyone that believes this is fear mongering is a nut job. Manipulate economies? I’m sure there is a secret society out there who wants to shit tank the economy and cancel any kind of social events. In a pandemic this is what you do. Best case is it’s an overreaction. You do that because you don’t want a worst case where you neglect and it spreads and is deadlier than anticipated.

in a pandemic this isn't what you do. We've had plenty of them over the last decade, and we haven't over-reacted in this capacity.

It just might be that this one is actually that bad.
 
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in a pandemic this isn't what you do. We've had plenty of them over the last decade, and we haven't over-reacted in this capacity.

It just might be that this one is actually that bad.
Maybe. Last one was H1N1 in 2009. And CDC had estimates that anywhere between 157k to 575k died worldwide the first year of circulation. So if they are overreacting they either think this one could have potential to be worse. Or they just want to prevent as many deaths as the last one brought. Regardless I would rather overreact vs later wish more would have been done.
 
Maybe. Last one was H1N1 in 2009. And CDC had estimates that anywhere between 157k to 575k died worldwide the first year of circulation. So if they are overreacting they either think this one could have potential to be worse. Or they just want to prevent as many deaths as the last one brought. Regardless I would rather overreact vs later wish more would have been done.
Even if the economy collapses and you lose your job, your vehicles, and your house?
 
Can always get a new job, vehicle, and house. Hard to get a new mom, dad, grandma/grandpa, or sick family member.
You do realize what a collapsed economy means don't you? Have you journeyed through the grocery store aisles lately?

That, except a lot worse. Over an extended period of time? Venezuela.

No food. Starving families.

All over a virus. Do you shut everything down during flu season? If you don't, you don't love your family.
 
You do realize what a collapsed economy means don't you? Have you journeyed through the grocery store aisles lately?

That, except a lot worse. Over an extended period of time? Venezuela.

No food. Starving families.

All over a virus. Do you shut everything down during flu season? If you don't, you don't love your family.
I went to reasors today. It was the exact same as any other time. And the economy isn’t collapsing. Each of these entities canceling events and seasons are doing it because they deem it necessary. Everything happening now will shorten the spread and exposure and get things back to normal faster. That or it turns into World War Z and it doesn’t matter anyway
 
I went to reasors today. It was the exact same as any other time. And the economy isn’t collapsing. Each of these entities canceling events and seasons are doing it because they deem it necessary. Everything happening now will shorten the spread and exposure and get things back to normal faster. That or it turns into World War Z and it doesn’t matter anyway
I hope you're right.
 
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Here are some encouraging words from a friend who has been thru this ...

My mission team brought the Swine Flu to the USA from our medical mission to Oaxaca. Most of us got it and unknowingly spread it. I watched people die. Here’s the difference:
1-There was regional panic but there wasn’t social media.
2-The gotcha media wasn’t hurling drama at our President at the time. They praised him when he waited after 100 US children died to call a national health emergency.
3. Young people were put in ICU and several healthy athletes developed serious pneumonia’s requiring drain tubes. Our California hospitals were challenged to say the least. Many of us saw the inefficiencies of our system, but we didn’t try to spread Obama panic on our blackberries. We worked around it and helped each other. We went on living, working, traveling, and gathering. We accepted the new virus as endemic (it’s with us) We closed nursing homes to non-essential visitors and protected the vulnerable. (CDC) estimates that swine flu infected nearly 61 million people in the United States and caused 12,469 deaths. Worldwide. Up to 575,400 people died from pandemic swine flu.
4. There wasn’t such a strong delusion and a hunger for even more.
 
Here are some encouraging words from a friend who has been thru this ...

My mission team brought the Swine Flu to the USA from our medical mission to Oaxaca. Most of us got it and unknowingly spread it. I watched people die. Here’s the difference:
1-There was regional panic but there wasn’t social media.
2-The gotcha media wasn’t hurling drama at our President at the time. They praised him when he waited after 100 US children died to call a national health emergency.
3. Young people were put in ICU and several healthy athletes developed serious pneumonia’s requiring drain tubes. Our California hospitals were challenged to say the least. Many of us saw the inefficiencies of our system, but we didn’t try to spread Obama panic on our blackberries. We worked around it and helped each other. We went on living, working, traveling, and gathering. We accepted the new virus as endemic (it’s with us) We closed nursing homes to non-essential visitors and protected the vulnerable. (CDC) estimates that swine flu infected nearly 61 million people in the United States and caused 12,469 deaths. Worldwide. Up to 575,400 people died from pandemic swine flu.
4. There wasn’t such a strong delusion and a hunger for even more.
Your friend sounds like a real impartial judge. Did he share this story with you between discussion of the latest revelations about pizzagate?
 
One of my good friends and co-workers lives in Milan, and I spent about 30 minutes this morning talking to him about it (since as of today Austin now has 4 confirmed cases, all in the last 12 hours). I was always skeptical that western countries/governments would have the willpower to do what China has done to lock down Wuhan's province....it sounds like they may not be far behind. According to my friend:

- as we know, literally nothing is open across Italy other than groceries, pharmacies, and (in a very limited function) post offices and some banks
- if he or his wife want to leave their house, they must have paperwork with them that specifies the reason they are outside their home
- he has 100% given up driving his vehicle, because police checkpoints every few blocks make vehicle transportation impossible (since the goal is to ensure random idiots don't take the virus outside of Lombardy)
- they can't even take walks in parks or empty areas, as police/military patrols intercept them and send them back home
- when he walks to the grocery store, the people have to queue up outside (and far apart from one another) while the limited # of shoppers inside do their thing and exit/enter 1-by-1....according to him this is very time consuming

Basically his views are that as long as basic essentials like food is available, this situation is better than what could happen although it's becoming increasingly restricted by government/city officials daily and there are concerns it is out of control to some extent. He is also disturbed about how fragile our social/cultural system is in times like this, how quickly things can degrade and of course the underlying fear of the infection permeating the city.

Here's an article echoing my friend's comments above....slightly different perspective and sad reality that human selfishness, stupidity, and lack of common sense threaten to undo every effort being made:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/europe/italy-american-woman-life-under-quarantine/index.html
 
For years we've done table top exercises to look into and try to understand how to prepare and respond to pandemics of various sources. Remember the bird-flu scare? This is like what was feared to be in terms of spread, but with far less mortality rate that was feared from the bird-flu.

It's not doomsday by a long shot, and will pass sooner if all people keep their heads. True, it is a pandemic by any reasonable definition, but that primarily means the infection is widespread but has little to do with severity/mortality. It's that asymptomatic incubation issue that is so problematic. There will eventually likely be a vaccine for this, but it will take a good while for production to ramp up and it be widely available. We will sadly have some mortality- those who primarily fall into the high risk groups (and I admit I'm one of those, being one of the last of the baby boomers), but it will run it's course, and it's not the black plague. It will have a temporary but significant effect on the workplace, transportation, the economy, and even our culture - pretty much worldwide. We no doubt can come out of it just fine and move on. We will learn a lot about this virus in the coming year.... maybe much sooner with all hands on deck in Medical Research from many countries.
Churchill said it: What we have to fear most is fear itself. Fearful people often lose the big picture and rational thought... and panic/fear makes for the wrong moves often times.
My fear isn't of the bug itself, and I'll go to my maker gratefully and without a complaint- it's been a good life, and the younger generation will be just fine if they keep to the core principles our founding fathers had. My fear are peoples (over-)reactions to it, and how our native instincts will bring out the worse in some (many), and become even more tribal, follow any leader who promises (false) security, without question, giving up real freedom for that sense of security. We will only have Armegedon if we create it ourselves due to false fears. Cooler heads and healthy leadership must prevail. My 2 cent, with respect for those who differ.
 
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