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Thread: 2020 Election
- Thread starter tlwwake
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I love all the scenarios where Biden wins by +300 in their chart.
Problem is they keep getting away with it!!!!
I voted for Trump even though I was planning on voting 3rd party. Having said that, here is my prediction:
Biden 315
Trump 223
Biden 315
Trump 223
Is this election different than the ones in the past?
Typically lower voter turnout favors Republicans and higher turnout favors Democrats. But with Trump enthusiasm off the charts, does record high voting rates actually favor Trump this time? Or, nah?
Typically lower voter turnout favors Republicans and higher turnout favors Democrats. But with Trump enthusiasm off the charts, does record high voting rates actually favor Trump this time? Or, nah?
I was just about to post this. What a ridiculous scenario. I would bet my entire net worth (which is technically negative but whatever 😂) and my first born that he won’t get a 300+ electoral margin.
I also predict that OU will win the B12 and Alabama will beat Clemson in yet another NC championship re-hash
Because so much of the turnout is outside the polling booth, its kind of hard to say. There will clearly be an increased turnout this year vs. prior years, but there's real questions as to whom that favors.
Seriously. If Biden were to flip AZ, TX, FL, GA, IA, NC, WI, MI, OH, and the 1 ME EV while maintaining all of Hillary's wins, he still doesn't get to +300. Yet they show multiple scenarios with results GREATER than +300 on their chart. Seems legit to me.
I tend to think it does based on the numbers of new voter registrations and what party they align to. Some states here and there are definitely different, but in general I think it does. I think of it like OU fans, they jump on a bandwagon they see as having a lot of enthusiasm. People don't work hard to get on the boring bus. Do you think all those people busting windows, flipping cars, looting stores went and registered to vote? DO you think those AntiFa and BLM walking through neighborhoods screaming at people are standing in 1 hour + lines to cast a vote? I don't think so.
So I looked at 538 and those specific predictions. They included states like Tennessee and/or South Carolina flipping. Seems to me if those are in range to flip to D, then shouldn't a state like Virginia be in play to flip red? Its not likely, but its closer than Tennessee is by their own polling metrics.
I wanted to...just to see if on the results if they would show if he had votes and if had only one I could laugh and tell people that was my chuckle vote. I voted Trump.
Donald Trump, George Bush and Joe Biden were set to face a firing squad in a small Central American country. Donald Trump was the first one placed against the wall and just before the order was given he yelled out "Earthquake". The firing squad fell into a panic and Donald Trump jumped over the wall and escaped during the confusion.
George Bush was the second one placed against the wall. The squad was reassembled and George pondered what he had just witnessed. Again before the order was given George yelled out "Tornado". Again the squad fell apart and George slipped over the wall.
The last person, Joe Biden, was placed against the wall. He was thinking, I see the pattern here, just scream out something about a disaster and hop over the wall. He confidently refused the blindfold as the firing squad was reassembled. As the rifles were raised in his direction, he grinned from ear to ear and yelled "Fire."
George Bush was the second one placed against the wall. The squad was reassembled and George pondered what he had just witnessed. Again before the order was given George yelled out "Tornado". Again the squad fell apart and George slipped over the wall.
The last person, Joe Biden, was placed against the wall. He was thinking, I see the pattern here, just scream out something about a disaster and hop over the wall. He confidently refused the blindfold as the firing squad was reassembled. As the rifles were raised in his direction, he grinned from ear to ear and yelled "Fire."
Lots of big network poll experts starting to look like they're going to get egg on their faces (again).
Internal polling is weighted heavy to the orange man and his coattails might be long (even though he has little hands).
Internal polling is weighted heavy to the orange man and his coattails might be long (even though he has little hands).
This county voted Trump 100K to 70K in 2016 with 78% participation. Its currently at 74% participation and has 30K more votes than '16. But the thing that was interesting. Nearly identical Dem vs. Rep mail-in balloting, but R's voted in-person at nearly a 3-1 clip. I think the larger the turnout TODAY, the better the chance for Trump (at least in Florida).
Going by my polling place after work today, looking forward to seeing what geriatric they took out of cryo to guard the voting machine.
In 2016, Florida had a participation rate of 75%. According to the early voting website from the state, 63.8% of all registered voters have already voted early. That would leave about 11-12% (not counting growth) of the expected remaining vote to be outstanding (about 1M votes). If we stay near 75% participation, then I think Trump may be in trouble in Florida. But if we actually get near 80% (which some counties have already achieved), then I think Trump beats Biden by more than a point.
Such a different/unique circumstance this cycle. Trump is as polarizing as any modern candidate, the pandemic, economic upheaval, etc. I don't think any past patterns can be readily predicted to repeat.
Take a look at the polling in the states that make up the most likely scenarios - some 75% or more of the simulated outcomes have Biden at more than 300 electoral votes. You can discount the polls if you like, but if you give them any credence at all then this is easy to see.
Keep that first born - that is the real treasure.
Hence my answer, I don't know how to think about the impact of higher than expected voter turn out - I would treat it as a wash.
Surprisingly quiet so far today... ready for what will come though and I believe it will come over the coming days.
Right now... i have 294-244 Biden wins.
Take a look at the polling in the states that make up the most likely scenarios - some 75% or more of the simulated outcomes have Biden at more than 300 electoral votes. You can discount the polls if you like, but if you give them any credence at all then this is easy to see.
Keep that first born - that is the real treasure.
There is no doubt that Biden can get to 300 EV. There is ZERO chance that Biden gets to +300 as those scenarios show. To indicate that its a possibility that Tennessee switches while showing no possibility that Virginia switches shows real bias in the model.
Very much in the sweet spot - you and I are probably at the edges of the "most likely" cluster.
Absolutely... I think Trump wins FL/TX/AZ but loses Mich/Wisc/Minn/Penn/NC.
RealClearPolitics (RCP) flipped four crucial battleground states from Joe Biden (D) to President Donald Trump in the final days leading up to the election.
Trump has taken the lead in key states — including Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio — in the final days of the election, according to RCP.
Which poll has VA at less than +10 to Biden that you would say demonstrates Trump as competitive?
Which model has TN as even a possible Biden win?
I don't understand how your point has any bearing on the projections of Biden getting >300 EVs, what am I missing?
