I wasn't here 4 weeks ago.
Great, but what were you claiming four weeks ago? Were you claiming Trump was beating Biden in the polls? Or were you sitting around telling everyone you had no clue who was winning?
I think we both know what you were doing. I'm just curious if you can be honest enough to admit it now.
Anyone that follows politics even casually knows how difficult it is to accurately poll Trump supporters. They are almost always under-represented in polls.
This is also true of Democratic voters. It is actually true for both sides now.
The vote for Democratic candidates were under-represented in the 2020 polls and the 2022 polls. Biden out-performed in some areas in 2020. And then, of course, no red wave showed up in 2022, did it?
Polls are about shaping narratives. Narratives are for people who need to be told how to think.
I would say that polls help shape media narratives, not that polls "are about" shaping media narratives. Yes, the media (both left and right-wing sources) places a lot of focus on the polls. Because the media is following the horse race day in and day out. Thus, they rely on the polls.
That is why we have seen a complete change in the media narrative over the past four weeks. The polls have changed, and therefore, so has the media marrative.
I suspect you like polls when they fit the narrative you want to believe, and reject them when they don't.
I've already told you how I approach polls.
Again, this far out from an election, I look for trends in the polls. Because I do think that tells us the dynamics of the race at this point and where it is headed, given the here and now. Of course, all of that could change, which I readily understand. I also don't trust every poll or place stock in every poll. Again, this early, it is about trends.
As we get closer to the election, I only look at likely voter polls and in presidential campaigns, I pay attention to the battle ground polls. Again though, even then, I'm looking at the trends. This is one reason I could tell the weekend before the 2022 midterms that a red wave was probably not going to materalize. The trend had shifted away from Republican candidates late.
I just don't place much stock in them regardless of what they say. See the difference?
Ok, fair enough.
Moving forward then, I don't want to see you quoting polls or talking about how popular or not popular one of the candidates are. I don't want to see you claiming who is leading and who isn't. Because if you don't place much stock in polls, you can't start quioting them (or relying on them) when you need some evidence to back up your claims.
