I've always been a huge Surber fan but I just don't think you can count on him for much at this point. I'm going off memory but I don't think he has really come close to being AA so I have a hard time calling him a fringe AA even if healthy. Witcraft is the same. Absolutely love him. Just don't think he is someone you can count on to score points at NCAAs. The dropoff from Hughes/Carroll to Witcraft/Surber is pretty massive.
End of the day you need 3-4 individual national champions to win it all. We realistically have a shot at that in 27. If you don't take that shot then it is going to be another 3-5 years before you are in that position. Give me one shot at a team title verse two shots at a team trophy with zero chance to win the whole thing every single time.
When healthy, Surber knocked off the #1 197 two years ago, & it wasn’t a fluke.
As a heavyweight, he was in the B12 Finals & had Wyatt Hendrickson on his back. He sailed through Heindselman, whom the proceeding heavyweight couldn’t figure out, and avenged most of his conference losses.
He’s beaten BOTH Elam Brothers! Who can make a comparable claim? The Elams are contenders, anyone with the ability to beat both has the ability to AA.
It all comes down to his health. Anyone who saw him as a heavyweight three years ago or before struggling with injuries two years ago could see the ability/potential. Last year put a bad taste in everyone’s mouth bc he was hurt all season. Prior to that, he was progressing and challenging everyone.
It is a drop off from Carroll; “massive” IF he is healthy feels highly exaggerated.
Furthermore, if it’s Merrill, that gap is even smaller. Surber beat Voelker, who just beat Caroll in U23s.
Witcraft is a bigger drop off; again, his Big 12 run at 125 two years ago showed he is dangerous.
OSU had had some bleak scenarios in the past 4-5 years, both of these situations are no where near the level of those situations. This isn’t 157 last year before Teague bulked up or 157/165 the year before they talked G into coming back and Wyatt bulked up.
They HAVE some options (again, we are talking in the event of No RS, this being a podium team next season). More so at 197 than 133; however the situation is not bleak.
Your point about needing 3-4 guys is taken; that said, this mentality that they can’t/wont build through the portal and continue to close the gap doesn’t make sense.
No one is saying this is a NC Team. Regardless of what they do or your preference , the point is, this is a podium roster next season IF they don’t go the RS route (not and endorsement for or against).