Now that I am finally able to post on this board I thought I would start with something you might find interesting.
Let's start with the big picture. Given the current rankings from Intermat, Flo and Wrestlestat how many AA's and how many points should Oklahoma State fans expect?
![](/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fi.postimg.cc%2FWpdQ2Bwj%2FOK-St-02-04-25-AA-Probability-Expected-Points-by-Weight.png&hash=807dae462a13fb36eadaa2d28ef0b279)
For this I calculate the probability of AA and points by seed using the last ten years of NCAA results.
You should expect 84 to 85.5 points and between 5.4 and 5.5 AA's come March. You might reasonable ask "how can you have four tenths of an AA?" Well, you can't. So what that means is you have some probability of 5 and some probability of 6 (and other numbers) that adds up to 5.4.
So what does that look like?
![](/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fi.postimg.cc%2FRh11SCPX%2FOK-St-02-04-25-All-American-Probability.png&hash=9f64acee35cc6085a2851c983342f263)
Based on that the most likely outcomes in order are:
Let's start with the big picture. Given the current rankings from Intermat, Flo and Wrestlestat how many AA's and how many points should Oklahoma State fans expect?
![](/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fi.postimg.cc%2FWpdQ2Bwj%2FOK-St-02-04-25-AA-Probability-Expected-Points-by-Weight.png&hash=807dae462a13fb36eadaa2d28ef0b279)
For this I calculate the probability of AA and points by seed using the last ten years of NCAA results.
You should expect 84 to 85.5 points and between 5.4 and 5.5 AA's come March. You might reasonable ask "how can you have four tenths of an AA?" Well, you can't. So what that means is you have some probability of 5 and some probability of 6 (and other numbers) that adds up to 5.4.
So what does that look like?
![](/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fi.postimg.cc%2FRh11SCPX%2FOK-St-02-04-25-All-American-Probability.png&hash=9f64acee35cc6085a2851c983342f263)
Based on that the most likely outcomes in order are:
- 6 AAs
- 5 AAs
- 7 AAs
- 4 AAs
- 3 AAs
- 8 AAs
- 2 AAs
- 9 AAs
- 1 AA
- 10 AAs (0.018%)
- 0 AAs (0.004%)