hello, world

[wrestleknownothing]

Now that I am finally able to post on this board I thought I would start with something you might find interesting.

Let's start with the big picture. Given the current rankings from Intermat, Flo and Wrestlestat how many AA's and how many points should Oklahoma State fans expect?



For this I calculate the probability of AA and points by seed using the last ten years of NCAA results.

You should expect 84 to 85.5 points and between 5.4 and 5.5 AA's come March. You might reasonable ask "how can you have four tenths of an AA?" Well, you can't. So what that means is you have some probability of 5 and some probability of 6 (and other numbers) that adds up to 5.4.

So what does that look like?



Based on that the most likely outcomes in order are:

1. 6 AAs
2. 5 AAs
3. 7 AAs
4. 4 AAs
5. 3 AAs
6. 8 AAs
7. 2 AAs
8. 9 AAs
9. 1 AA
10. 10 AAs (0.018%)
11. 0 AAs (0.004%)

 

[chasepollard]

Now that I am finally able to post on this board I thought I would start with something you might find interesting.

Let's start with the big picture. Given the current rankings from Intermat, Flo and Wrestlestat how many AA's and how many points should Oklahoma State fans expect?



For this I calculate the probability of AA and points by seed using the last ten years of NCAA results.

You should expect 84 to 85.5 points and between 5.4 and 5.5 AA's come March. You might reasonable ask "how can you have four tenths of an AA?" Well, you can't. So what that means is you have some probability of 5 and some probability of 6 (and other numbers) that adds up to 5.4.

So what does that look like?



Based on that the most likely outcomes in order are:

1. 6 AAs
2. 5 AAs
3. 7 AAs
4. 4 AAs
5. 3 AAs
6. 8 AAs
7. 2 AAs
8. 9 AAs
9. 1 AA
10. 10 AAs (0.018%)
11. 0 AAs (0.004%)

Nice, but the math ain't mathing.

I've got us with 10 AA's, and my math has the DT and staff variable as well as the RW and Fish throw you on your head variable.

CY has just been farting around to avoid putting things on film and that variable is un-variable'able.

Jokes aside, good discussion info!

 

[johnstownsteel]

Ill be cheering for them to beat Iowa for second place..

 

[Pennstate1985]

Ill be cheering for them to beat Iowa for second place..

you and me both. If nothing more than to give me several days of feasting on their tears. Do tears have calories?

 

[Chasingthirty-five]

Now that I am finally able to post on this board I thought I would start with something you might find interesting.

You sir, are a gentleman and a scholar. Idk what back alley library you hail from but you’re numbers are welcome here.

Have you run the same numbers with PSU and Iowa?

 

[wrestleknownothing]

You sir, are a gentleman and a scholar. Idk what back alley library you hail from but you’re numbers are welcome here.

Have you run the same numbers with PSU and Iowa?

I have the top table for every team and the bottom graph for a handful of teams (it involves a few extra steps) including PSU and Iowa.

 

[chasepollard]

you and me both. If nothing more than to give me several days of feasting on their tears. Do tears have calories?

No, they’re the most fulfilling and health beneficial intake you can consume.

The health benefits are multiplied when consuming from the Iowa ducts.

 

[Chasingthirty-five]

I have the top table for every team and the bottom graph for a handful of teams (it involves a few extra steps) including PSU and Iowa.

Would love to see it!

 

[wrestleknownothing]

Would love to see it!

When showing a bunch of teams it works better to leave out the weight by weight detail. Here are all the teams expected to have at least two AAs by Intermat or Flo rankings (sorted by Intermat):



The PSU distribution looks like this. They have a 12% chance of 10 AA's. To put that in perspective, when Minnesota had 10 AA's in 2007, based on their seeds they only had a 1% chance of doing that. And their expected AA's was only 6.5. What Minnesota pulled off that year was a pretty extreme outlier, making it even more impressive than it already seems.



And the Iowa distribution looks like this.



And Oklahoma State again, so you can see them lined up against each other.

 

[chasepollard]

Good stuff @wrestleknownothing , thank you!

But your data is missing a variable about Iowa under-performing in March. So, be sure and knock some of that probability down.

 

[wrestleknownothing]

Good stuff @wrestleknownothing , thank you!

But your data is missing a variable about Iowa under-performing in March. So, be sure and knock some of that probability down.

While that is true, you may not want to look at this table too closely. It is 2010 - 2024 (The Sanderson Era) performance relative to seed, sorted by "Worse Than Seed" for select teams.



I know, I know. New regime. And now we have a baseline to compare to.

This table shows the performance as averages rather than buckets, sorted by average deviation from seed. Neither one is perfect. Starting points matter. But combined they tell a pretty accurate story.

 

[chasepollard]

Do Iowa the last 4 years only?

 

[wrestleknownothing]

Do Iowa the last 4 years only?

Now you are on to something.

 

[chasepollard]

Nice!

 

[west2east]

Good stuff @wrestleknownothing , thank you!

But your data is missing a variable about Iowa under-performing in March. So, be sure and knock some of that probability down.

Can't the same be said about Oklahoma st over the last 10 years 🤷😜

 

[chasepollard]

Can't the same be said about Oklahoma st over the last 10 years 🤷😜

Yup

 

[west2east]

Yup

That won't continue with the new staff. I expect Oklahoma St to peak in March from now on