... If you think we're going to know who's president late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, don't count on it.
Thanks to so many states being close to call and to so many people voting by mail, it's likely that we won't know the results for days after the election.
Remember the Election of 2020? We could have a repeat of something like that. Get ready for chaos. And because of SCOTUS decision's in the absence of the ninth justice (which, thank God, is resolved) it may take a few days before votes in some states are even finalized, including the key swing state of Pennsylvania.
I've been meaning to post this since the 4-4 ruling (thanks Chief Justice Roberts) on mail-in votes in Pennsylvania a couple of weeks ago. It was front page news in this morning's DMN:
IN THE KNOW The key voting comes long after Election Day Identifying winner may take days
In some battleground states, counting piles of absentee ballots can’t even start until the polls close
By TODD J. GILLMAN
Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON — Who won? When will we know? Can we trust that result?
Enormous uncertainty hangs over Election Day in a nation in the throes of a pandemic.
Maybe we’ll know in the wee hours Wednesday morning.
But there’s a good chance it will take several days, at least, until enough votes are counted in enough states to know beyond reasonable dispute whether President Donald Trump gets to stay in the White House or former Vice President Joe Biden has sent him packing.
In counties from Hawaii to Maine, workers will be opening huge stacks of envelopes and comparing names to registries. In some states, processing started weeks ago and will be done by the time polls open. In others, the work can’t even start until polls close Tuesday night.
The organizations representing state elections officials have pleaded for patience, reminding a restless public that the unexpected can occur in any election, regardless of how mundane or bitter. Polling sites open late. Workers don’t show up. Equipment malfunctions.
But election officials across the country say these problems don’t mean there is malicious activity.
“We want voters to have confidence in the process … and have patience as election officials tally, canvass and certify election results,” said New Mexico’s Maggie Toulouse Oliver, president of the National Association of Secretaries of State.
There are scenarios in which the results are clear and quick. All involve a win for Biden, as forecasters see only a narrow path to victory for Trump.
One involves Texas. A win in the state for Biden would stop Trump cold. Another involves Florida and Pennsylvania going decisively for the Democrat.
Florida starts counting absentee ballots far in advance of Election Day and could be called Tuesday night. Pennsylvania is more problematic. There, workers cannot even open the ballots until polls close.
Polls show Biden stretching his leads nationally and in critical battlegrounds in the final days. Trump eked out a win in 2016 by just 80,000 votes combined in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where his victory margins ranged from 0.2% to 0.8%. They’re all battlegrounds again this year, and Trump’s chances grow if he can keep them in his camp.
But the count could take days, thanks to the huge surge in absentee ballot requests.
States expanded mail-in voting so voters wouldn’t have to crowd together on Tuesday in school cafeterias and libraries and community centers. Processing and counting those ballots takes time — just as it takes time at the polling site for clerks to match your name to a list.
Wisconsin doesn’t allow election workers to start processing until polls open. Counting starts after polls close. Michigan should deliver its tally sooner. There, state law allows workers to open and verify mail ballots starting Monday, though counting has to wait until polls close.
“If Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have stacks and stacks of mail-in ballots in all their different counties that the processing boards can’t start sifting through until Election Day, that work may take several days,” said Steven Huefner, deputy director of the election law program at Ohio State’s Moritz College of Law.
Workers have to open the envelope and match the information with a database to make sure the voter is eligible and cast only one ballot. Each step takes time. Democrats have been more likely to vote absentee, since Trump has spent months trash talking mail-in ballots. That means early tallies consisting only of votes cast on Election Day will be incomplete and could be skewed toward Republicans.
The variety of rules in other battlegrounds means a guessing game as to when either candidate might hit critical mass and clinch:
Arizona and Florida: Early returns are likely to favor Biden, because mail ballots can be counted starting weeks before Election Day and Democrats are more likely to vote by mail. Georgia: Biden has been on offense. Officials expect full results to take a couple of days. Counting of mail ballots can’t start until polls close.
Iowa: State law allows processing to start Saturday, and ballots can be counted on Monday. Results are expected Tuesday night. North Carolina: Election offices have been processing mail ballots for a month. Officials expect more than 98% of the vote to be reported on Election Night. Ohio: Mail ballots can’t be counted until polls close.
Unless the winds are blowing hard in one direction, a concession isn’t likely right away.
Trump has been underperforming his 2016 pace by 3 to 8 percentage points, according to a leading nonpartisan handicapper, Charlie Cook, and the prospects for a contested election grew dimmer in the past week with “every day that Trump remains behind in the polls, outspent badly and with the early vote gushing in.”
Four years ago, Hillary Clinton also led in the final days, though Biden is in a stronger position than she was. The president could defy the odds again if enough “shy” Trump voters are out there — supporters reluctant to admit their leanings to pollsters. He trails only narrowly in Florida. He won there and in Pennsylvania last time, and if they stick with him, he can win another term.
In Texas, state GOP chairman Allen West does not expect defeat.
“Our goal is to win big so we don’t have anything to contest,” he said. “I’m planning on overwhelming the opposition. … I’m not planning on anything being close.”
Who makes the call
The news media have no legal authority to declare a winner, of course, though the public looks to The Associated Press and TV networks to do so. Their formulas vary.
The gist is that they make projections once the top candidate’s lead is big enough given the number of uncounted votes.
Once enough states are called, it’s a question of simple arithmetic. There are 538 electoral votes up for grabs, including 38 from Texas. The first one to 270 wins.
As a constitutional matter, though, there is no president-elect until the electors gather as the Electoral College on Dec. 14.
“Responsible media will not be reporting on election night unless there’s a huge wave. They’ll say we have X percent of the vote in and X percent out,” said Rachel Kleinfeld, a member of the National Task Force on Election Crises, a nonpartisan group of experts in elections, national security and cybersecurity, and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “I wouldn’t expect a concession from either side if things were close.”
Americans have grown used to finding out the winner on Election Night, even if it’s not until the wee hours. But it doesn’t always work out that way.
In 1960, NBC News didn’t declare John F. Kennedy the victor until 7 a.m. the next day. His 303-219 Electoral College landslide concealed a razor thin race in which he topped Richard Nixon by just 112,000 votes out of 68 million.
Two close calls alone could have swung the outcome: Texas, which Kennedy carried by 46,257 votes, and Illinois, where he won by 8,858 out of nearly 4.8 million. Republicans suspected theft by the Daley machine in Chicago, or by Kennedy’s running mate, Lyndon Johnson, who famously won a Senate primary in Texas in 1948 when 200 extra votes turned up from Duval County’s Precinct 13.
Fresher in memory is the Florida recount of 2000, a 36-day ordeal that ended with Texas Gov. George W. Bush beating Vice President Al Gore by 537 votes, when a 5-4 Supreme Court halted the recount.
In 2018, nearly two dozen U.S. House races couldn’t be called on Election Night. In California’s Central Valley, one race was so close the outcome wasn’t clear for three weeks. The three-term incumbent led by 4,400 votes on Election Night and AP declared him the winner. But the lead disappeared as mail ballots were counted. The challenger ended up winning by 862 votes. He’s now the incumbent in a bitter rematch.
“Californians know and Arizonans know that that is democracy playing its course,” said Lucinda Guinn, an El Pasoan who serves as executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “That is ballots being counted … and there is not panic about the election.”
Thanks to so many states being close to call and to so many people voting by mail, it's likely that we won't know the results for days after the election.
Remember the Election of 2020? We could have a repeat of something like that. Get ready for chaos. And because of SCOTUS decision's in the absence of the ninth justice (which, thank God, is resolved) it may take a few days before votes in some states are even finalized, including the key swing state of Pennsylvania.
I've been meaning to post this since the 4-4 ruling (thanks Chief Justice Roberts) on mail-in votes in Pennsylvania a couple of weeks ago. It was front page news in this morning's DMN:
IN THE KNOW The key voting comes long after Election Day Identifying winner may take days
In some battleground states, counting piles of absentee ballots can’t even start until the polls close
By TODD J. GILLMAN
Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON — Who won? When will we know? Can we trust that result?
Enormous uncertainty hangs over Election Day in a nation in the throes of a pandemic.
Maybe we’ll know in the wee hours Wednesday morning.
But there’s a good chance it will take several days, at least, until enough votes are counted in enough states to know beyond reasonable dispute whether President Donald Trump gets to stay in the White House or former Vice President Joe Biden has sent him packing.
In counties from Hawaii to Maine, workers will be opening huge stacks of envelopes and comparing names to registries. In some states, processing started weeks ago and will be done by the time polls open. In others, the work can’t even start until polls close Tuesday night.
The organizations representing state elections officials have pleaded for patience, reminding a restless public that the unexpected can occur in any election, regardless of how mundane or bitter. Polling sites open late. Workers don’t show up. Equipment malfunctions.
But election officials across the country say these problems don’t mean there is malicious activity.
“We want voters to have confidence in the process … and have patience as election officials tally, canvass and certify election results,” said New Mexico’s Maggie Toulouse Oliver, president of the National Association of Secretaries of State.
There are scenarios in which the results are clear and quick. All involve a win for Biden, as forecasters see only a narrow path to victory for Trump.
One involves Texas. A win in the state for Biden would stop Trump cold. Another involves Florida and Pennsylvania going decisively for the Democrat.
Florida starts counting absentee ballots far in advance of Election Day and could be called Tuesday night. Pennsylvania is more problematic. There, workers cannot even open the ballots until polls close.
Polls show Biden stretching his leads nationally and in critical battlegrounds in the final days. Trump eked out a win in 2016 by just 80,000 votes combined in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where his victory margins ranged from 0.2% to 0.8%. They’re all battlegrounds again this year, and Trump’s chances grow if he can keep them in his camp.
But the count could take days, thanks to the huge surge in absentee ballot requests.
States expanded mail-in voting so voters wouldn’t have to crowd together on Tuesday in school cafeterias and libraries and community centers. Processing and counting those ballots takes time — just as it takes time at the polling site for clerks to match your name to a list.
Wisconsin doesn’t allow election workers to start processing until polls open. Counting starts after polls close. Michigan should deliver its tally sooner. There, state law allows workers to open and verify mail ballots starting Monday, though counting has to wait until polls close.
“If Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have stacks and stacks of mail-in ballots in all their different counties that the processing boards can’t start sifting through until Election Day, that work may take several days,” said Steven Huefner, deputy director of the election law program at Ohio State’s Moritz College of Law.
Workers have to open the envelope and match the information with a database to make sure the voter is eligible and cast only one ballot. Each step takes time. Democrats have been more likely to vote absentee, since Trump has spent months trash talking mail-in ballots. That means early tallies consisting only of votes cast on Election Day will be incomplete and could be skewed toward Republicans.
The variety of rules in other battlegrounds means a guessing game as to when either candidate might hit critical mass and clinch:
Arizona and Florida: Early returns are likely to favor Biden, because mail ballots can be counted starting weeks before Election Day and Democrats are more likely to vote by mail. Georgia: Biden has been on offense. Officials expect full results to take a couple of days. Counting of mail ballots can’t start until polls close.
Iowa: State law allows processing to start Saturday, and ballots can be counted on Monday. Results are expected Tuesday night. North Carolina: Election offices have been processing mail ballots for a month. Officials expect more than 98% of the vote to be reported on Election Night. Ohio: Mail ballots can’t be counted until polls close.
Unless the winds are blowing hard in one direction, a concession isn’t likely right away.
Trump has been underperforming his 2016 pace by 3 to 8 percentage points, according to a leading nonpartisan handicapper, Charlie Cook, and the prospects for a contested election grew dimmer in the past week with “every day that Trump remains behind in the polls, outspent badly and with the early vote gushing in.”
Four years ago, Hillary Clinton also led in the final days, though Biden is in a stronger position than she was. The president could defy the odds again if enough “shy” Trump voters are out there — supporters reluctant to admit their leanings to pollsters. He trails only narrowly in Florida. He won there and in Pennsylvania last time, and if they stick with him, he can win another term.
In Texas, state GOP chairman Allen West does not expect defeat.
“Our goal is to win big so we don’t have anything to contest,” he said. “I’m planning on overwhelming the opposition. … I’m not planning on anything being close.”
Who makes the call
The news media have no legal authority to declare a winner, of course, though the public looks to The Associated Press and TV networks to do so. Their formulas vary.
The gist is that they make projections once the top candidate’s lead is big enough given the number of uncounted votes.
Once enough states are called, it’s a question of simple arithmetic. There are 538 electoral votes up for grabs, including 38 from Texas. The first one to 270 wins.
As a constitutional matter, though, there is no president-elect until the electors gather as the Electoral College on Dec. 14.
“Responsible media will not be reporting on election night unless there’s a huge wave. They’ll say we have X percent of the vote in and X percent out,” said Rachel Kleinfeld, a member of the National Task Force on Election Crises, a nonpartisan group of experts in elections, national security and cybersecurity, and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “I wouldn’t expect a concession from either side if things were close.”
Americans have grown used to finding out the winner on Election Night, even if it’s not until the wee hours. But it doesn’t always work out that way.
In 1960, NBC News didn’t declare John F. Kennedy the victor until 7 a.m. the next day. His 303-219 Electoral College landslide concealed a razor thin race in which he topped Richard Nixon by just 112,000 votes out of 68 million.
Two close calls alone could have swung the outcome: Texas, which Kennedy carried by 46,257 votes, and Illinois, where he won by 8,858 out of nearly 4.8 million. Republicans suspected theft by the Daley machine in Chicago, or by Kennedy’s running mate, Lyndon Johnson, who famously won a Senate primary in Texas in 1948 when 200 extra votes turned up from Duval County’s Precinct 13.
Fresher in memory is the Florida recount of 2000, a 36-day ordeal that ended with Texas Gov. George W. Bush beating Vice President Al Gore by 537 votes, when a 5-4 Supreme Court halted the recount.
In 2018, nearly two dozen U.S. House races couldn’t be called on Election Night. In California’s Central Valley, one race was so close the outcome wasn’t clear for three weeks. The three-term incumbent led by 4,400 votes on Election Night and AP declared him the winner. But the lead disappeared as mail ballots were counted. The challenger ended up winning by 862 votes. He’s now the incumbent in a bitter rematch.
“Californians know and Arizonans know that that is democracy playing its course,” said Lucinda Guinn, an El Pasoan who serves as executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “That is ballots being counted … and there is not panic about the election.”
