Dallas Federal Building shooter update

[07pilt]

Black swan events happen, and he's correct that there's simply insufficient data to model for them (in his example by introducing an arbitrary constraint on years), which is why they remain black swans. Can also be tagged outliers.

Industry work has to move forward anyway, so you use the data you have and pull out meaningful situational information. Call it the non- black swan portion of the data, which typically represents well over 90%, and you can successfully build predictive models within this area. You also aren't constrained by significance. In my industry, if we were constrained to even .05 significance, no models would be built.

Then you loosely try to identify the conditions within which a black swan event is likelier to happen (albeit still unpredictable) and push off risk through other levers....i.e. reallocation of investments to safer instruments, deployment of additional safety officers, rein in loans within certain risk tiers, etc..

All this to say, situationally you can know which causes more deaths.

This is the risk management style of someone living on borrowed time.

 

[CBradSmith]

This is the risk management style of someone living on borrowed time.

Depends on how leveraged at that unpredictable moment. You're not wrong.

 

[Medic007]

Black swan events happen, and he's correct that there's simply insufficient data to model for them (in his example by introducing an arbitrary constraint on years), which is why they remain black swans. Can also be tagged outliers.

Industry work has to move forward anyway, so you use the data you have and pull out meaningful situational information. Call it the non- black swan portion of the data, which typically represents well over 90%, and you can successfully build predictive models within this area. You also aren't constrained by significance. In my industry, if we were constrained to even .05 significance, no models would be built.

Then you loosely try to identify the conditions within which a black swan event is likelier to happen (albeit still unpredictable) and push off risk through other levers....i.e. reallocation of investments to safer instruments, deployment of additional safety officers, rein in loans within certain risk tiers, etc..

All this to say, situationally you can know which causes more deaths.

Excellent post. Interestingly, there's reliable data going back to 1970 in the link I provided. That 15 year time period referenced in the tweet was chosen for narrative purposes. I think we could fairly reliably calculate the odds of death by right-wing violence using that data. I'm not going to waste time doing it because I already know those odds are less than choking on a sandwich.

 

[07pilt]

Excellent post. Interestingly, there's reliable data going back to 1970 in the link I provided. That 15 year time period referenced in the tweet was chosen for narrative purposes. I think we could fairly reliably calculate the odds of death by right-wing violence using that data. I'm not going to waste time doing it because I already know those odds are less than choking on a sandwich.

Wrong

 

[07pilt]

Medic: After asking 49 people what their net worth is I already know the odds of anyone being richer than me

 

[pokenrally]

Conservatism is nothing more than convincing the feeble minded to be scared. Same messaging, over and over. They know just how to package it and ya'll snarf it up. Alarmism! Hate libs! Hate feminists! Hate lawyers! Hate hate hate and defend the ability of losers to get guns!

What exactly are you trying to accomplish in this thread other than to "convince the feeble minded to be scared" of Republicans? Liberals lack self-awareness, so I'm not surprised you can't see the irony here.

 

[Medic007]

Wrong

The risk of death by choking on a sandwich isn't higher than being killed by right-wing violence?

 

[07pilt]

The risk of death by choking on a sandwich isn't higher than being killed by right-wing violence?

correct

 

[Medic007]

Medic: After asking 49 people what their net worth is I already know the odds of anyone being richer than me

Cool.

 

[Medic007]

correct

I wish I could take your word for it, I really do.

 

[Medic007]

correct

46 years of ideological terrorist data is more data than we have on global temperatures via satellite. Just sayin...

 

[07pilt]

I wish I could take your word for it, I really do.

ex ante were Romanovs more likely to die from sandwiches or left wing violence in 1917.

 

[07pilt]

46 years of ideological terrorist data is more data than we have on global temperatures via satellite. Just sayin...

We should all hope that that global temperature changes are normally distributed.

 

[Medic007]

ex ante were Romanovs more likely to die from sandwiches or left wing violence in 1917.

I don't have death by choking data from 1917.

 

[07pilt]

I don't have death by choking data from 1917.

lol