Dallas Federal Building shooter update

[CBradSmith]

Hahahahahah it's okay brad, look on the bright side I'm sure you are really good at arithmetic

Lol. You're trying a too hard now.

Is there some insight about non-parameterized and non-segmented salami deaths you'd like to share?

And what's the end measure you're attempting to target, hate related deaths, gun violence, both, other?

What's laughable is how you've failed to set up any of that in whatever it is you're doing.

So yeah, I'm laughing at you.

 

[07pilt]

Lol. You're trying a too hard now.

Is there some insight about non-parameterized and non-segmented salami deaths you'd like to share?

And what's the end measure you're attempting to target, hate related deaths, gun violence, both, other?

What's laughable is how you've failed to set up any of that in whatever it is you're doing.

So yeah, I'm laughing at you.

Okay brad you spend some time googling statistical distributions and as soon as you are up to speed I'll walk you through the rest.

 

[CBradSmith]

Okay brad you spend some time googling statistical distributions and as soon as you are up to speed I'll walk you through the rest.

Know em like the back of my hand.

Read up on cleaning your data to make it usable and conforming and get back to me.

Probably have pinpointed where the break down is in your funny, albeit misguided, belief that the U.S. ought to be "more like the nordic countries."

 

[07pilt]

Know em like the back of my hand.

Read up on cleaning your data to make it usable and conforming and get back to me.

Probably have pinpointed where the break down is in your funny, albeit misguided, belief that the U.S. ought to be "more like the nordic countries."

So fill in the blanks brad

 

[CBradSmith]

So fill in the blanks brad

Go ahead Pilt. This isnt rocket science and you're wasting time.

Announce how you clean and segment the data.

 

[07pilt]

Go ahead Pilt. This isnt rocket science and you're wasting time.

Announce how you clean and segment the data.

Come on brad, you math, this isn't hard

 

[Medic007]

Prove it, brad. Fill in the blanks.

Annual deaths by salami sandwiches follow a ________ distribution
Annual deaths by political violence follow a _________ distribution

Deaths by choking aren't stratified by what the person choked on. Sandwiches are on the list of choking hazards though. About 5,200 people die a year from choking, 1.6 deaths per 100,000.

 

[07pilt]

Deaths by choking aren't stratified by what the person choked on. Sandwiches are on the list of choking hazards though. About 5,200 people dieva year from choking, 1.6 deaths per 100,000.

Cool

 

[Medic007]

Cool

So what exactly is the argument? Risks posed by white supremacists are higher than choking on a sandwich?

 

[HighStickHarry]

So what exactly is the argument? Risks posed by white supremacists are higher than choking on a sandwich?

They sure FEEL like it

 

[CBradSmith]

Deaths by choking aren't stratified by what the person choked on. Sandwiches are on the list of choking hazards though. About 5,200 people die a year from choking, 1.6 deaths per 100,000.

Sh*t medic. Bailing him out.

 

[CBradSmith]

So what exactly is the argument? Risks posed by white supremacists are higher than choking on a sandwich?

Dang. A pertinent, qualifying question.

 

[07pilt]

So what exactly is the argument? Risks posed by white supremacists are higher than choking on a sandwich?

Sandwich choking are (log)normally distributed. Political violence deaths follow a power law distribution. With normal distributions you can look at a 15 year sample and have a decent idea about the population mean and standard deviation and can have a pretty good idea of the worst case 1 in 100 years scenario. Some power law distributions have indeterminate mean and variance and there is no hope of determining the population mean and variance from a 15 year sample. The worst case 1/100 year scenario is unknown. Some years 3 people die some years 3000 some years Steve Scalise gets winged some years there is a Bolshevik revolution.

 

[Medic007]

Sh*t medic. Bailing him out.

I'm just trying to figure out what exactly it is that he's arguing.

 

[07pilt]

Dang. A pertinent, qualifying question.

Brad, just relax, I'm not going to go back and rub your face in all those times you said "do you even math bro?" You don't have to stress about it

 

[Medic007]

Sandwich choking are (log)normally distributed. Political violence deaths follow a power law distribution. With normal distributions you can look at a 15 year sample and have a decent idea about the population mean and standard deviation and can have a pretty good idea of the worst case 1 in 100 years scenario. Some power law distributions have indeterminate mean and variance and there is no hope of determining the population mean and variance from a 15 year sample. The worst case 1/100 year scenario is unknown. Some years 3 people die some years 3000 some years Steve Scalise gets winged some years there is a Bolshevik revolution.

Do we have any years in modern times of 3,000 people dying from white supremacist violence?

 

[07pilt]

Do we have any years in modern times of 3,000 people dying from white supremacist violence?

In the US?

 

[Medic007]

Sandwich choking are (log)normally distributed. Political violence deaths follow a power law distribution. With normal distributions you can look at a 15 year sample and have a decent idea about the population mean and standard deviation and can have a pretty good idea of the worst case 1 in 100 years scenario. Some power law distributions have indeterminate mean and variance and there is no hope of determining the population mean and variance from a 15 year sample. The worst case 1/100 year scenario is unknown. Some years 3 people die some years 3000 some years Steve Scalise gets winged some years there is a Bolshevik revolution.

How do we know that there's no hope of determining the population mean and variance from a 15 year sample? How many years are needed to get a mean and variance?

 

[Medic007]

In the US?

Yes. I don't think that tweet is referring to white supremacists in Japan or the Congo.

 

[07pilt]

How do we know that there's no hope of determining the population mean and variance from a 15 year sample? How many years are needed to get a mean and variance?

Depends on the parameters of the distribution

 

[07pilt]

Yes. I don't think that tweet is referring to white supremacists in Japan or the Congo.

No

 

[Syskatine]

Do we have any years in modern times of 3,000 people dying from white supremacist violence?

Wait. Where was this test when you were pissing yourself over

ANTIFA!!!

If they weren't such incel dorks... dude had a complete ambush and the only dead person is.... him?

Charlotesville, the black church, this last guy, the christchurch shooter quoting candace warren... i think i read about a muslim getting killed for religion in kansas... the 2 synagogue mass killings in Philly and socal... off the top of my head. Pretty bad and you know thats just the tip of the iceberg.

See proudboys with their white trash signs at the maga rally?

 

[Medic007]

Depends on the parameters of the distribution

You said we can't figure it out based on 15 years. I would assume that you made that statement via knowledge of how many years it would take.

 

[Medic007]

This is Pokeabear using another version of my wife’s handle. I’ve been banned and don’t have any idea why.

Wait, what? You got banned?

 

[07pilt]

You said we can't figure it out based on 15 years. I would assume that you made that statement via knowledge of how many years it would take.

Nope.

 

[2012Bearcat]

This is Pokeabear using another version of my wife’s handle. I’ve been banned and don’t have any idea why.

Did you ever see the movie Gumball Rally? Well let's just say you are Roscoe.

 

[Medic007]

Nope.

Nope what? You don't know how many years it would take?

 

[07pilt]

Nope what? You don't know how many years it would take?

Correct. I'm only good at math compared to brad

 

[Medic007]

Correct. I'm only good at math compared to brad

Well that's disappointing. I was hoping we could figure out if white supremacists were actually deadlier than sandwiches.

 

[Medic007]

Correct. I'm only good at math compared to brad

Now hold on. Is this more of your MMT gobbledygook? You didn't do any math, therefore we don't know if your math is better than Brad's.

 

[CBradSmith]

Correct. I'm only good at math compared to brad

Your assessment is inadequate.

 

[Ostatedchi]

Prove it, brad. Fill in the blanks.

Annual deaths by salami sandwiches follow a ________ distribution
Annual deaths by political violence follow a _________ distribution

@Ponca Dan says, "Geometric!" Yeah... geometric!

 

[CBradSmith]

Correction...

It's inadequate for business. Maybe proper for academia.

 

[07pilt]

@Ponca Dan says, "Geometric!" Yeah... geometric!

Lol

 

[Medic007]

I know this isn't a PBS article with some screechy Twitter commentary, but bear with me.

This link has a link to a report on domestic terrorism from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and the Responses to Terrorism, which is a Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence led by the University of Maryland. I know, it's not Salon or Vox, but it's still good stuff. If you want to read about the actual incidence of ideological terrorism in the US without all of the attempts at fluffing and buffing to create a political narrative, this is a really good site.

https://bsos.umd.edu/featured-content/proportion-terrorist-attacks

 

[07pilt]

I know this isn't a PBS article with some screechy Twitter commentary, but bear with me.

This link has a link to a report on domestic terrorism from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and the Responses to Terrorism, which is a Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence led by the University of Maryland. I know, it's not Salon or Vox, but it's still good stuff. If you want to read about the actual incidence of ideological terrorism in the US without all of the attempts at fluffing and buffing to create a political narrative, this is a really good site.

https://bsos.umd.edu/featured-content/proportion-terrorist-attacks

Fake news. Says OKC was right wing

 

[CBradSmith]

You said we can't figure it out based on 15 years. I would assume that you made that statement via knowledge of how many years it would take.

Black swan events happen, and he's correct that there's simply insufficient data to model for them (in his example by introducing an arbitrary constraint on years), which is why they remain black swans. Can also be tagged outliers.

Industry work has to move forward anyway, so you use the data you have and pull out meaningful situational information. Call it the non- black swan portion of the data, which typically represents well over 90%, and you can successfully build predictive models within this area. You also aren't constrained by significance. In my industry, if we were constrained to even .05 significance, no models would be built.

Then you loosely try to identify the conditions within which a black swan event is likelier to happen (albeit still unpredictable) and push off risk through other levers....i.e. reallocation of investments to safer instruments, deployment of additional safety officers, rein in loans within certain risk tiers, etc..

All this to say, situationally you can know which causes more deaths.

 

[Ostatedchi]

And the 20th police officer died this year in an ambush attack. I see a pattern forming. Who could be doing these?

 

[Been Jammin]

Do we have any years in modern times of 3,000 people dying from white supremacist violence?

1941
1942
1943
1944
1945

 

[Medic007]

1941
1942
1943
1944
1945

Talking about the US...