Where does CNN get its data?

[aix_xpert]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/early-voting-trends-2024-2020-visuals-dg/index.html

CNN has an interesting article about early voting statistics and turnout. And it clearly shows Republicans are doing better than before, which they acknowledge (but downplay of course). But per CNN, Nevada shows the following for the early count based on registered party: 36% Dem, 38% Rep, which leaves 26% other. However, the Nevada Secretary of State's own data shows something WILDLY different.

Out of 177K votes tallied thus far: (numbers are rounded)

48K Dems (27%)
92K Reps (52%)
38K Other (21%)

Source: https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/14890/638653142247300000

We see Dems panicking on CNN now. Imagine the panic if they actually reported the real numbers.

 

[lovethempokes]

Actually all these early voting reports will just let the Democrats know how much they need to add to vote totals to win. Voting should never have been put on computers.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Actually all these early voting reports will just let the Democrats know how much they need to add to vote totals to win. Voting should never have been put on computers.

The (potential) issue is going to be in these states is everyone will know how many votes are left, and they will know that Trump has the state won before Election Day.

Then they will give it to Kamala anyway, even though she doesn't have enough votes to catch Trump. That's when things get interesting, they stole 2020 at 3am in private, they will have to steal this one at High Noon in broad daylight.

 

[windriverrange]

GOP Leads Early Voting In County Which Has Voted Democrat Since 1992

Early voting figures for Miami-Dade County reveal the GOP is leading in the presidential election by almost 12,000 votes. Donald Trump has just surpassed 36,000 votes in the county, compared to 24,…

wokespy.com

This is the kind of stuff that tells me Trump is headed for a big win.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

GOP Leads Early Voting In County Which Has Voted Democrat Since 1992

Early voting figures for Miami-Dade County reveal the GOP is leading in the presidential election by almost 12,000 votes. Donald Trump has just surpassed 36,000 votes in the county, compared to 24,…

wokespy.com

This is the kind of stuff that tells me Trump is headed for a big win.

The early voting across the board is heavily favoring pubs.

This is what I'm waiting for: These guys know how many votes are outstanding.

Let's say Trump is ahead by 100,000 votes in Nevada before the polls open on Election Day, and we know there are 25,000 votes left to count including those that will be cast on Election Day. So everyone says that's it, Trump has won NV.

Then the next day, we find out that Kamala got 125,000 votes on Election Day, and more votes were cast than NV had registered voters.

Stolen in broad daylight. What then?

 

[windriverrange]

The early voting across the board is heavily favoring pubs.

This is what I'm waiting for: These guys know how many votes are outstanding.

Let's say Trump is ahead by 100,000 votes in Nevada before the polls open on Election Day, and we know there are 25,000 votes left to count including those that will be cast on Election Day. So everyone says that's it, Trump has won NV.

Then the next day, we find out that Kamala got 125,000 votes on Election Day, and more votes were cast than NV had registered voters.

Stolen in broad daylight. What then?

I'm going to go out on a limb this time and say that the R's minus the absolutely inept RNC lead Rhona McDaniels (sp) now, are prepared for this and will have representatives/lawyers in place to watch and act. In 2020 the R's were shocked that there were so many irregularities and that the election was even close given Bidens basement strategy. Now I don't think there will be any surprises like that. We'll see but they seemed to have learned a few lessons about how elections and counting ballots should look like. Additionally, at least for Nevada, if Clark County is close it over for the D's.

 

[OrangeTuono]

 

[fatman76]

Actually all these early voting reports will just let the Democrats know how much they need to add to vote totals to win. Voting should never have been put on computers.

It shouldn’t matter. If over half of eligible registered voters vote red, Kamala can’t win.

Key word is shouldn’t. And it’s unlikely anyway.

I think that’s what “too big to rig” means.

 

[aix_xpert]

By the way, I wanted to self-correct my post above. The data from the SOS of Nevada that I linked is only the 'in-person' early vote which is being dominated (as usual) by Republicans. The difference between that data and the CNN data is that CNN is also getting the mail vote demographics, but I haven't found that source. I can see the aggregated data from the Nevada News blogger who tracks it (and as a lib isn't real pleased with his findings thus far).

 

[aix_xpert]

Obviously, the election is based on the electoral college and not popular vote. Thus national polls don't really mean anything. But as seen in '16 & '20, and as reported by data analysts such as Nate Silver, Dems probably need to carry the national vote by +2-3% in order to actually win the electoral college. So when CNN's headline is that THEIR national poll shows a dead-heat race (https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/cnn-poll-harris-trump/index.html), I imagine Reps are pretty giddy and Dems are pretty sodden.

 

[OKSTATE1]

Obviously, the election is based on the electoral college and not popular vote. Thus national polls don't really mean anything. But as seen in '16 & '20, and as reported by data analysts such as Nate Silver, Dems probably need to carry the national vote by +2-3% in order to actually win the electoral college. So when CNN's headline is that THEIR national poll shows a dead-heat race (https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/cnn-poll-harris-trump/index.html), I imagine Reps are pretty giddy and Dems are pretty sodden.

Actually closer to 4% than 2%.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

I'm going to go out on a limb this time and say that the R's minus the absolutely inept RNC lead Rhona McDaniels (sp) now, are prepared for this and will have representatives/lawyers in place to watch and act. In 2020 the R's were shocked that there were so many irregularities and that the election was even close given Bidens basement strategy. Now I don't think there will be any surprises like that. We'll see but they seemed to have learned a few lessons about how elections and counting ballots should look like. Additionally, at least for Nevada, if Clark County is close it over for the D's.

I agree with this, if Trump is allowed to take power, you have to give the RNC a ton of credit. They have put lawyers and poll watchers in place and perhaps more importantly, many of these states have cleaned up their voters rolls.

My point was more when the steal happens in broad daylight, will the 'there was no evidence 2020 was stolen so don't say that' crowd finally wake up and call the theft they just witnessed as being theft?

If that happens, Trump has his mandate from the people to hold the cheaters accountable.

 

[aix_xpert]

I agree with this, if Trump is allowed to take power, you have to give the RNC a ton of credit. They have put lawyers and poll watchers in place and perhaps more importantly, many of these states have cleaned up their voters rolls.

My point was more when the steal happens in broad daylight, will the 'there was no evidence 2020 was stolen so don't say that' crowd finally wake up and call the theft they just witnessed as being theft?

If that happens, Trump has his mandate from the people to hold the cheaters accountable.

You think we'll see another "water main" break?

 

[aix_xpert]

Additionally, at least for Nevada, if Clark County is close it over for the D's.

As of this morning's vote totals, Dems lead (based on registration) in Clark County is 1.3% and Repubs have a statewide edge of just under 24k votes. Assuming the parties 'came home' to their candidates based on registration, Dems would need to be winning the 3rd party/Independents by +20 (60-40) to be leading in Nevada. Biden carried the independents by +6 in '20. This is why Republicans are giddy.

The early voting blog, 2024 - The Nevada Independent

Follow along with Nevada’s 2024 election in our early voting blog. Get the latest updates, insights, and key information as voters head to the polls.

thenevadaindependent.com

 

[Rdcldad]

 

[xplor58]

The thing about all this is that the early vote totals are how many Republicans voted...how many dems...how many other..


It is not a count of WHO they voted for. It maybe indicates enthusiasm for a candidate or party but that is it.

So most of dems that are voting could be voting repub or a lot of them. Could be vice versa....

Not to mention the other category.

I am sure that internal to campaign have a good idea of the likely vote if you apply their internal polling to the vote totals but even that is an educated guess.

I can hear the excuses now....kamala got more votes than any in history because all the others went 90% for kamala