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All-American probability

Wrassler223

Recruit
Nov 22, 2015
79
18
8
On the BWI forum, I noticed someone rank the psu lineup from top to bottom with the guy #1 being the highest probable chance for reaching all-american status in March. I thought it would be fun to do that with ours..

#1- Obviously Dieringer.
#2- Kyle Crutchmer (weight isn't nearly as deep as last year, Kyle lacks offense on his feet but the guy is a winner and finds ways to win).
#3- Austin Marsden (AA two years ago but just came short last year. He has a chance to finish high if can get more active on his feet).
#4- Dein Heil (He could honestly finish anywhere from 1-8) this weight is still looking somebody to take over and be the man. I'm not sure if that guy is Dein but he certainly possess the skills to be back on podium. I see his finish being similar to last year.
#5- Anthony Collica ( I've heard nothing but good things about him all summer, picked up some very good wins despite taking a butt whooping in kinnick stadium to Sorensen. I don't think the gap is a big between them as it seemed that day. I see him in the 3-6 range if he shows up in March)
#6- Eddie Klimara (Eddie is a tough guy but unfortunately still hasn't quite developed to the point where is a title threat. He's kinda taken over the role as the gate keeper of this weight class. I expect him to stay around the 5-8 area.)
#7- Chance Marstellar ( gah this could go a million different ways.. He's got the talent and I think he can make/sustain the cut. He has to learn to manage his weight: Dieringer won a national title at 157 and you could argue his cut was even worse than chances. If chance completely buys into the system and what he needs to do then he will AA.)
#8- Nolan Boyd ( gotta love this kid for his fight and tenacity but as we all know he lacks setups on his feet. i don't see him making the podium but he will be a tough out for somebody, as always).
#9- GWH (not sure GWH can hold down this weight or if Kaid will take over. I think Kaid has a higher ceiling than GWH but not sure John will pull his RS. I say start Kaid seeing how we have fix coming soon hopefully. GWH won't AA but hopefully he can pick up a couple wins.
#10- Austin Schaefer (early to say but I could see us not even qualifing this weight class. He shows glimpses of times where he can compete with good guys then other times he gets manhandled pretty bad. Time will tell whether or not he can hang with the big boys on a consistence basis. My guess is not but optimistic he can!)

Obviously things could change if John decides to pull some redshirts. The guys that have a chance to come out are Joe and Kaid, couple hs teammates. Joe will be an AA if he comes out this year BUT is it worth when he can win as a true freshman next year. I think he'll be Martinez's biggest threat next year if doesn't bump to 165, which I could see happening. Pull Kaid's shirt, we have so much depth in the lower weights plus what's coming in, that I don't see it as an issue.
 
I am not so sure we need to count out Rogers at 184. I know his performance in Iowa was pretty miserable, but there were so many things going against him there. We will know a lot more about this team after the Scuffle. I seem to recall a team can take three extra non scoring wrestlers to the scuffle?
My thoughts on this would be Joe Smith, Jordan Rogers, and Kaid Brock. Obviously Brock and Smith would keep their redshirts on and we would not get the points. Rogers is getting it done in the room and may have just shut down when he got in front of the Iowa faithful.
John Smith knows how to get the most out of wrestlers, but this is my guess as to what he will do.
 
Neil got 4th last year and it wasn't a product of the bracket.

All 3 above him graduated. I think Heil is one of those guys who grows a few spots at the NCAAs...look for him to make some racket.

125...6/8 AAs return and I expect similar from this year for Klimara.
133...5/8 return and I don't see much change here
141...3/8 return including the places above Heil
149...5/8 return and I think Collica takes ahold of the 3-5 range
157...not sure on returners, but I'm concerned with Marstellar. Really, I can't wait to see him with an easier cut.
165...who's going to beat Dieringer
174...4/8 return including all places above Crutch. Grit, strength and ability! Getting him to use it is another story.
184...many returners, so who knows
197...not many returners, which may be Boyd's best shot at AA
HWT...4/8 I think, but Marsden should return to AA

I predict 1 champ, 2 more finalists with a total of 7 AAs.
 
Here's mine:
165
141
174
157
285
125
149
197
133
184

Not sure who will be at which weight, but that is how I see it no matter who goes, excluding injury.

As far as scuffle I believe you can take 10+5 scorers and anyone else can go on their own dime. If you are a listed scorer you lose your RS.
 
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From an outsider's perspective. 141 and 174 would move ahead of 285 if the question was "most likely to win a championship"

165
285
141
174
125
149
157 (If Chance gets the cut under control of if Joe Smith goes this could be higher. Too much uncertainty here to make an accurate call right now)
184
197
133
 
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