Why Trump will be reelected part 2

[GL97]

Just because someone questions the results of a poll doesn't mean that the person disagrees with the general sentiment of the poll.

I've yet to see you acknowledge and/or accept any poll that doesn't back up how you perceive the current political situation. Granted, I haven't been on this board long but all I have seen you do so far is dismiss all polls that aren't favorable to your viewpoint.

I agree btw that a person can question the results of a poll when there are clear examples of error in the methodology of the poll or a poll is clearly outside polling trend. However, that is not the case here.

In my opinion, Trump is not doing a good job. I've posted multiple times what I think he's doing poorly.

I agree. And the polls are reflecting that. That was my point.

Trump's approval rating in counties he won, you know, the counties that put him in the White House by way of the electoral college, is still quite strong.

Do you have some links to prove this? I don't doubt it is true, but I'd like to see these polls.

No one disagrees that Trump, for the most part, still has the support of his most devoted supporters. But if he hopes to win re-election in 2020, he is going to need more support than just those voters.

Remember the national polls that gave him no shot to win because they didn't account for state by state numbers? He's in the White House despite the popular vote.

True.

However, he isn't going to win re-election with an approval rating in the 30s. He isn't going to win re-election if he continues to do a poor job and continues to receive the negative reaction that he is receiving from a majority of Americans, regardless of what he did in 2016.

There is a reason there are rumblings about someone challenging Trump for the GOP nomination in 2020. There is a reason that we see the split occurring right now among Republicans. And there is a reason that Trump isn't able to gain any traction with his policy proposals in D.C.

Now, could Trump turn it around? Sure. 2020 is still a long ways off (although 2018 isn't). But if he doesn't, and the current trend continues, Trump is going to be in serious political trouble come 2020.

 

[GL97]

If the economy is good he'll get re-elected. If not, he won't.

I don't fully agree with this and would edit it just slightly. If the economy is good, and the voters give Trump the credit for it, he may win re-election.

I agree that the economy is always one of the most important issues in an election. However, it isn't the only issue (just ask Gore). And with Trump, there are numerous issues that could derail his chances at re-election.

 

[Medic007]

Granted, I haven't been on this board long but all I have seen you do so far is dismiss all polls that aren't favorable to your viewpoint.

What is my viewpoint, Miss Cleo? If you can't accurately describe it then the quoted from you is just verbal diarrhea.

 

[Medic007]

Do you have some links to prove this? I don't doubt it is true, but I'd like to see these polls.

Google it. I'm not interested in bottle feeding a grown man.

 

[GL97]

What is my viewpoint

A viewpoint from somewhere on the right that believes the Democratic Party is crazy, Obama was a horrible President, and progressivism could be a mental disorder. You also believe Democrats are doomed in 2018 and 2020 if they continue to advocate for policies you disagree with.

 

[GL97]

Google it. I'm not interested in bottle feeding a grown man.

That's what I thought. Make a claim and then refuse to back it up with hard evidence.

But I did google it, and while I can't find recent county-by-county polling at the moment, here is some state results:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...lection-inauguration-republican-a7862386.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-base-sticks-him-except-south-n787856

 

[Medic007]

A viewpoint from somewhere on the right

Nope, not the right at all. I'm actually somewhat left of center these days when compared to the left/right spectrum. I do have a special disdain for the elitist Democrats who have become mirror images of the Republicans I've always despised. Wall Street Whore Clinton and Dems just like her top my current list of dislike because I've expected them to be different.

Democratic Party is crazy

Nope, I think they are lazy, complacent, and polluted with too much corporate money.

Obama was a horrible President

Nailed that, but I feel that way because he did not fulfill his hope and change campaign rhetoric. He was exactly what he claimed to be against. His push of the big corporate money ACA was the beginning of the end in my view.

progressivism could be a mental disorder

I'm starting to think it might be true. The lefties are acting completely insane right now.

You also believe Democrats are doomed in 2018 and 2020 if they continue to advocate for policies you disagree with.

Somewhat true. I think they are doomed because they continue to push further left outside of the interests of the white working class voters which is exactly what has gotten them where they currently are. Their fund raising is in the dumps. They still don't have an economic message that resonates, and the "We Resist Trump" and new slogan stolen from Papa Johns aren't going to be enough to win. I could get behind their policies if they had anything useful for folks like me, but they spend their time consumed with Trump instead of getting back to the basics.

 

[CBradSmith]

Nope, not the right at all. I'm actually somewhat left of center these days when compared to the left/right spectrum. I do have a special disdain for the elitist Democrats who have become mirror images of the Republicans I've always despised. Wall Street Whore Clinton and Dems just like her top my current list of dislike because I've expected them to be different.


Nope, I think they are lazy, complacent, and polluted with too much corporate money.


Nailed that, but I feel that way because he did not fulfill his hope and change campaign rhetoric. He was exactly what he claimed to be against. His push of the big corporate money ACA was the beginning of the end in my view.


I'm starting to think it might be true. The lefties are acting completely insane right now.


Somewhat true. I think they are doomed because they continue to push further left outside of the interests of the white working class voters which is exactly what has gotten them where they currently are. Their fund raising is in the dumps. They still don't have an economic message that resonates, and the "We Resist Trump" and new slogan stolen from Papa Johns aren't going to be enough to win. I could get behind their policies if they had anything useful for folks like me, but they spend their time consumed with Trump instead of getting back to the basics.

If some random leftist were to stumble on this, actually listen, and learn from a guy who's obviously well thought out, it would benefit then immensely. Wisdom doesn't often come cheap.

Unfortunately, I see nobody. Nobody is hearing you. But keep up the good work.

 

[CBradSmith]

My question for you, @Medic007 , is how do you turn that ship around? The left.

 

[GL97]

I'm actually somewhat left of center these days when compared to the left/right spectrum

What are some left of center policies that you support?

Somewhat true.

So you are starting to change your mind on this now? Good to know.

I think they are doomed because they continue to push further left outside of the interests of the white working class voters which is exactly what has gotten them where they currently are.

When you say "interests of the white working class," what do you mean?

The lefties are acting completely insane right now.

And the far right isn't?

They still don't have an economic message that resonates, and the "We Resist Trump" and new slogan stolen from Papa Johns aren't going to be enough to win. I could get behind their policies if they had anything useful for folks like me, but they spend their time consumed with Trump instead of getting back to the basics.

The Democrats do have an economic message that can resonate (whether you agree with it or not is another question), they just need the right national candidate to deliver it. And they also should resist Trump. That is what the party in opposition does.

In 2018 and 2020, the messaging of the Democratic Party will be important but Trump will be the incumbent so the election will be about him and his record. You can't divorce the two.

btw, I find it interesting how you so often rail against "identity politics"...

I don't know if that will get Trump elected again, but I agree a bunch of people are tired of the identity politics from the Democrats.

The Dems need a makeover. Identity politics as the backbone of the platform is not a winning strategy.

Demand better than the simple identity politics shit. It isn't a winning platform.

And yet, most of your last post was intertwined with identity politics.

 

[GL97]

Nailed that, but I feel that way because he did not fulfill his hope and change campaign rhetoric.

And that is your opinion but not everyone agrees with this nor is it reflective of what a majority of Americans thought when they gave him high marks as he was leaving office. It is though a common refrain from those on the right and so yes, many on this board will readily agree with you. But, lol, this board is hardly representative of America.

Which goes back to what I was saying about the polls and filtering them through your viewpoint.

 

[Medic007]

That's what I thought. Make a claim and then refuse to back it up with hard evidence.

Geezus. Fine, suckle up to my tit, grown man. You use your teeth and I'll slap the shit out of you and send you to bed hungry.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/17/politics/trump-approvers-never-stop-approving-poll/

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2017-trump-heartland-sentiment/#

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-reluctant-voters-are-getting-more-reluctant/

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/4/16085892/trump-support-battleground-districts

(Last date this poll was conducted)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fi...es-fueled-his-win-n783151?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

 

[CowboyJD]

Geezus. Fine, suckle up to my tit, grown man. You use your teeth and I'll slap the shit out of you and send you to bed hungry.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/17/politics/trump-approvers-never-stop-approving-poll/

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2017-trump-heartland-sentiment/#

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-reluctant-voters-are-getting-more-reluctant/

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/4/16085892/trump-support-battleground-districts

(Last date this poll was conducted)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fi...es-fueled-his-win-n783151?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

You had those locked and loaded waiting to be called out like that didn't you?

Even threw out the google it yourself bait, right?

 

[GL97]

(Last date this poll was conducted)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fi...es-fueled-his-win-n783151?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

Thank you. This is a poll that directly relates to your original claim. And it is interesting what this poll actually discovered. First, when looking at the surge counties:

"In the Trump "surge counties" (for example: Carbon, Pa., where Trump won 65 percent to 31 percent, versus Romney's 53-45 percent margin) — 56 percent of residents approve of the president's job performance. Trump beat Hillary Clinton in these "surge" areas nationwide by a combined 65 percent-to-29 percent margin in 2016."

While he still has strong support, there is a significant decline, which is in line with what other state polls are starting to show.

More importantly though, consider the flip counties...

"But in the "flip counties" (for example: Luzerne, Pa., where Obama won 52 percent to 47 percent, compared to Trump's 58-39 margin), Trump's job rating stands at just 44 percent. Trump won these "flip" areas overall in 2016, 51 percent to 43 percent."

That isn't good news for Trump. He will need those flip counties to remain with him if he expects to win re-election.

So my original point remains. Trump is in political trouble right now. Nationally, his approval ratings are very low. There is evidence that he is losing support in states and counties he won. His support is still strong among his most committed voters, but that is it.

He isn't going to win re-election with just his committed voters.

 

[GL97]

You had those locked and loaded waiting to be called out like that didn't you?

I sure hope not, because it didn't help his argument that much.

Go ahead and like it though the minute he posts it without actually reading the links first (what type of lawyer are you?) lol. You two are cute together.

 

[CowboyJD]

I hope not, because it didn't help his argument that much.

Go ahead and like it though the minute he posts it (without actually reading the links first) lol. You two are cute together.

The last NBC poll cited certainly supports his proposition.

"Trump's approval rating in counties he won, you know, the counties that put him in the White House by way of the electoral college, is still quite strong."

The rest also generally support his general contention that Trump support in key counties and states from an EC perspective is still strong.

"That much" is a completely subjective self serving evaluation which I would expect you to skew to your favor.

My comment wasn't even a statement of support of his original contention or of the links anyway. It was a comment about him knowing that you would not be able to help from responding exactly the way you did from the very beginning. Everybody else saw it coming from a mile away.

For someone that chides/mocks others for supposedly trying too hard or being so predictable, you follow your same rhetorical path every single time yourself.

 

[CowboyPhil]

Before any of these polls mount to a hill of beans, the opposition has to put someone forward that has a chance to beat Trump.

I haven't seen anyone stepping forward from any party that is offering anything better yet.

And that's not a very high bar to get over.

 

[GL97]

The last NBC poll cited certainly supports his proposition.

"Trump's approval rating in counties he won, you know, the counties that put him in the White House by way of the electoral college, is still quite strong."

How is a 44% approval rating in flip counties (i.e. counties that put him in the White House) "still quite strong"?

Everybody else saw it coming from a mile away.

So you now speak for every one on this board huh? Man, you sure do think highly of yourself.

 

[GL97]

Before any of these polls mount to a hill of beans, the opposition has to put someone forward that has a chance to beat Trump.

I agree Phil. Completely agree. The Democrats have to nominate a strong candidate in 2020. They also have to pick the right congressional candidates in 2018. And if the anti-Trump Republican Party wants to kick Trump to the curve, they are going to have to come up with a strong candidate as well.

I don't know if the Republicans can find such a candidate (the GOP is so fractured right now). I think the Democrats have a number of candidates who could beat Trump though.

 

[ThorOdinson13]

For someone that chides/mocks others for supposedly trying too hard or being so predictable, you follow your same rhetorical path every single time yourself.

You may as well have written this in wingdings.

 

[Medic007]

And yet, most of your last post was intertwined with identity politics.

Uh, no, that isn't identity politics. Outside of my references to "white working class voters," there was absolutely nothing in regards to identity politics. Maybe you should refresh yourself on what identity politics is. Lemme help you with what I see the definition as, which is the classic definition provided by dictionary:

"a tendency for people of a particular religion, race, social background, etc., to form exclusive political alliances, moving away from traditional broad-based party politics."

I'm not the only human that sees that identity politics as a problem for Democrats. Here's a great assessment of another great assessment. Don't shoot the messenger.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...s_party_for_its_identity_politics_134836.html

When you have a candidate for the Top DNC post saying that her job is to shut other white people down, it's a definite problem.

What are some left of center policies that you support?

Single payer. Against military transgender ban. Amnesty for a non-criminal illegals currently in the US with a path to legal status. Embryonic stem cell research. Gay marriage. Ending the wars. Pro-choice to a gestational age of 24 weeks. I don't believe in god which is more aligned to the left than to the right, but I don't have a problem with public prayer. Are those enough? Do I need to add more? Should I also list my right of center policy support? Do we need to create a point system to weigh my positions so we can see if I'm somewhat left of center like I said?

When you say "interests of the white working class," what do you mean?

Exactly what it says. White working class voters are interested in the economy, taxes, illegal immigration, security, trade, jobs, and keeping the identity of America as American. Here's a great little essay on the subject as it relates to Democrats.

http://prospect.org/article/democrats’-‘working-class-problem’

Here's another one.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...-working-class-trump-cultural-anxiety/525771/

And another one.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...mps-working-class_us_586dc952e4b07888d4813e40

The white working class people are definitely not interested in the "moral panic about racial, gender and sexual identity that has distorted liberalism’s message and prevented it from becoming a unifying force capable of governing,” which is the problem the Democrats face when trying to connect with them.

 

[Medic007]

You had those locked and loaded waiting to be called out like that didn't you?

Even threw out the google it yourself bait, right?

Actually no. I did a brief Google search for him because he's an echo chamber dweller who probably doesn't know how to conduct such a Google search himself. He was crying so I shoved my tit in his mouth.

 

[Medic007]

Go ahead and like it though the minute he posts it without actually reading the links first (what type of lawyer are you?) lol. You two are cute together.

And this is exactly why you get called out. JD is an actual lawyer. You aren't. You really aren't worth replying to when this is all you have to offer outside of your hive think. You're really nothing more than a wordier version of CowboyUp, the board's consummate lefty cheerleader, except he actually had a personality worth engaging.

 

[GL97]

Outside of my references to "white working class voters," there was absolutely nothing in regards to identity politics.

And that is what I was referencing along with this comment: "for folks like me."

If you abhor identity politics, why are you referencing the interests of white working class voters?

(btw, I agree that Democrats need to address the legitimate concerns of white working class voters. But again, that is engaging in identity politics which you have previously berated the Democratic Party for doing.)

 

[ThorOdinson13]

And this is exactly why you get called out. JD is an actual lawyer. You aren't. You really aren't worth replying to when this is all you have to offer outside of your hive think. You're really nothing more than a wordier version of CowboyUp, the board's consummate lefty cheerleader, except he actually had a personality worth engaging.

Actually

 

[CowboyJD]

How is a 44% approval rating in flip counties (i.e. counties that put him in the White House) "still quite strong"?

You have your definition of "quite strong", others have their own. Let's also not forget that he made a general statement about the counties that supported Trump as his definition of what put him in the White House. You decided to focus on the flip counties and unilaterally designate those as the ones that put him in the White House. In all "Trump counties" in the prior election, his support is at fifty percent. In Trump "surge counties" his support is at 56%. Both "quite strong". The poll generally does support his contention.

So you now speak for every one on this board huh?

Nope. Just a statement of opinion about what everybody is sees.

 

[NZ Poke]

This is why Trump will be re-elected.

 

[GL97]

Single payer. Against military transgender ban. Amnesty for a non-criminal illegals currently in the US with a path to legal status. Embryonic stem cell research. Gay marriage. Ending the wars. Pro-choice to a gestational age of 24 weeks. I don't believe in god which is more aligned to the left than to the right, but I don't have a problem with public prayer.

Interesting and good to know. The fact that you are pro-choice is somewhat surprising given some of your comments. Some of these others issues I haven't seen discussed in great detail on this board.

I agree with you on single payer, the military ban, a path to citizenship, gay marriage, ending the wars. I do believe in God though (many on the left do) and I wrestle with the abortion issue.

Exactly what it says. White working class voters are interested in the economy, taxes, illegal immigration, security, trade, jobs, and keeping the identity of America as American.

So going off the definition you have given, I agree that the Democrats should present a strong progressive economic message to white working class Americans and also explain why the economic message coming from Trump is not in their best interest.

In terms of illegal immigration, I do not believe the Democratic Party should play to any nativist sentiments among voters (including white voters). Advocate for humane and just immigration reform? Yes. Path to citizenship as you support? Yes. These policies aren't going to satisfy nativists though. However, the Democratic Party should still advocate for them.

Lastly, I don't really know what you mean by "keeping the identity of America as American." I won't assume though so I really have no response to this.

The white working class people are definitely not interested in the "moral panic about racial, gender and sexual identity that has distorted liberalism’s message and prevented it from becoming a unifying force capable of governing,” which is the problem the Democrats face when trying to connect with them.

While I will agree that "some" white working class people are not interested in these issues, many are. I know some personally.

The Democratic Party doesn't have to jettison their commitment to civil rights in order to win elections. Nor should they. They should continue to be committed to civil rights, while also presenting a strong progressive economic message to white working class Americans.

 

[NZ Poke]

A red piller snowflake.

i.e. NZ and his boys always needing safe spaces when their nonsense gets point out and they starting whining censorship, free speech and whatnot.

Nonsense huh?

 

[GL97]

JD is an actual lawyer.

So what? I mean, good for JD but who cares? You consistently throw this out as if it somehow validates everything JD posts. It doesn't.

 

[CowboyJD]

Nonsense huh?

That's what I said, have been saying, and will continue to say.

Concentration camps!

Book bans!

Refriginators (or is it Termirators)!

Yeah....NONSENSE.

 

[GL97]

You have your definition of "quite strong", others have their own.

Well then, do you consider 44% to be "quite strong"?

Just a statement of opinion

Exactly.

 

[ThorOdinson13]

That's what I said, have been saying, and will continue to say.

Concentration camps!

Book bans!

Refriginators (or is it Termirators)!

Yeah....NONSENSE.

I apologize if you've already stated your viewpoint here.

What is your view on google and twitter setting up algorithms and processea to censor search results and tweets/videos based on what they deem to be "hate" speech. Or hell, even disagreeable to the political leanings of said company?

 

[EvilPOKES]

 

[CowboyJD]

Well then, do you consider 44% to be "quite strong"?

It's an irrelevant question to his general statement that support in the counties that went to him in the last election are still quite strong. Generally, that poll shows that in all counties in the poll that went Trump still give him a 50% approval rating. It does generally support his general contention.

I personally would consider 44% "pretty" strong...."fairly" strong. I wouldn't myself use the adjective "quite". I also wouldn't be interested in quibbling over it or basing the entirety of my rhetoric and persuasive efforts on such an ambiguous word while also looking to apply it to a smaller subset of "flip" voters when the proponent of the original statement stated all counties that supported Trump.

That's just me though.

 

[CowboyJD]

I apologize if you've already stated your viewpoint here.

What is your view on google and twitter setting up algorithms and processea to censor search results and tweets/videos based on what they deem to be "hate" speech. Or hell, even disagreeable to the political leanings of said company?

My view is that they are not public utilities, they are private media sites.

My view is don't particularly care for it, but I continue to use them for convenience sake. I've also explored gab and some other platforms.

My view is that if enough people end up caring about it enough, they'll stop using google and twitter and go to other platforms.

It is also my view that NZ's concentration camp, book bans (once the statues are gone) and Google refeidgerators are gonna lock up your food for disagreeing with Google to be crazy, hysterical projection.

 

[GL97]

It's an irrelevant question to his general statement that support in the counties that went to him in the last election are still quite strong.

It is not irrelevant. The flip counties are part of the counties that Trump won. Yes, Meds made a general statement ("counties he won"), which thus includes the flip counties. If he wanted to be more specific (i.e. "in certain counties he won"), he could have been.

Not to mention that the flip counties are especially relevant when considering the electoral college.

I personally would consider 44% "pretty" strong...."fairly" strong. I wouldn't myself use the adjective "quite".

Pretty strong? Really? I won 44% of the vote, my opponent received 54%, but hey, I had pretty strong support??

The 50% support is what is "fairly" or "pretty" strong. Quite strong would be higher than that. 44% doesn't reach that standard though.

With all that said, again, the overall point remains. Trump's national approval ratings are horrible. Added to that, he is losing support in the states and counties he won although his support among his most committed supporters remains strong. If this trend continues and Trump doesn't reverse course, it is going to be hard for him to win re-election.

 

[CBradSmith]

You may as well have written this in wingdings.

Bwahahaha

 

[Medic007]

Google refeidgerators are gonna lock up your food for disagreeing with Google.

I will eat Google itself if it gets in the way of food, probably starting with davidallen since he's soft and tender.

Sorry @davidallen. Couldn't resist.

 

[Rdcldad]

This is why Trump will be re-elected.

without stepping into the thunderdome

i have to say that's funny