Trump's campaign stops today and tomorrow

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

The stops Trump makes in November will tell you what states are in play:

Today:

Trump is in Michigan and WI.
Vance is in MI (Different event from Trump's), and NC

Saturday:

Trump is in VA and TWO events in NC
Vance is in NV and AZ. Don Jr will be with him at both events


Few thoughts:

First, it's telling that no events have been announced for Sunday or Monday. Obviously Trump wants to give himself flexibility in where they go last two days based on changes in data. I would assume at least one more stop in PA and probably WI and MI as well, but could be some surprises. I would expect to see a stop in NH as well.

A bit surprised that Trump continues the full court press on NC. The polls (especially those from credible pollsters) all show Trump ahead, so his numbers may be showing something different. On the other hand, I think it's a good sign that no Georgia dates so far. If he doesn't add a stop on either Sun or Mon, I take that as a sign that he thinks GA is in the bag.

Insanely good numbers in NV, which might cross over into Too Big to Rig territory over the weekend. If he doesn't add a stop there Sun or Mon, think he knows NV is in the bag as well.

 

[aix_xpert]

If the election in Nevada ended with today's numbers, and assuming no extreme inter-party cannibalization (Dems for Reps or Reps for Dems), the Dems would need to carry the independent vote by 18% to win. In 2016 Hillary carried the independents by +10 and in 2020, Biden carried it by +6. That said, there's probably still 400-450K votes left to be cast (930K cast so far), so I expect the results to narrow going into Tuesday.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Trump's stops are up. Don't know Vance's stops, but I would assume Vance would join Trump at some point, maybe on Monday's stops or at least the last one in MI.

No more stops in NV or AZ suggests that Trump thinks the hay is in the barn for those two states.

Another GA stop and 2 more for NC suggests he's really concerned about NC.

If this holds it would mean Today will be the last time Trump visits WI, which suggests he thinks he's up a bit more there than in PA or MI.

Looks like PA, NC, MI, WI, GA and VA are the tossup states for Trump, in that order.