http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439451/donald-trump-will-win-five-reasons-why
We'll see. Going to be a wild ride one way or another.
We'll see. Going to be a wild ride one way or another.
This Gal is Buying what Several of You have been Saying...
- Thread starter Marshal Jim Duncan
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I think the key thing that jumps out at me is attendance at Trump events vs attendance at Hillary events (few and far between as they are).
One thing that polls cannot accurately measure is when it comes to nut-cutting time, who is motivated enough to deal with traffic, lines etc. to vote for which candidate. You may answer straight D on all the poll questions, but that doesn't mean you are fired up about her.
The people who ARE voting Trump are extremely motivated and seem likely to turn out in higher percentages.
To me there are three things which are the major wildcards at play here.
1. Voter apathy/motivation - a split poll doesn't mean much if one side is less likely to actually vote than the other.
2. Wikileaks' pending October surprise - will it move the needle?
3. Debates. I think they will be fascinating and I think there are a lot of people still withholding support until they see them.
One thing that polls cannot accurately measure is when it comes to nut-cutting time, who is motivated enough to deal with traffic, lines etc. to vote for which candidate. You may answer straight D on all the poll questions, but that doesn't mean you are fired up about her.
The people who ARE voting Trump are extremely motivated and seem likely to turn out in higher percentages.
To me there are three things which are the major wildcards at play here.
1. Voter apathy/motivation - a split poll doesn't mean much if one side is less likely to actually vote than the other.
2. Wikileaks' pending October surprise - will it move the needle?
3. Debates. I think they will be fascinating and I think there are a lot of people still withholding support until they see them.
I think your first sentence is way overblown as an indicator by Trump supporters. I think you are on solid ground with the rest though.
Anecdotal impression but I've spoken to many blacks and Latinos the past few months and they are not enthused about Hildebitch. Don't know if that translates into Trump support but it may translate into not voting which is almost the same. I spoke with one Latino middle age man who talked my ear off about his support of Trump a couple of weeks ago.
I live in a highly partisan democratic area of Dallas and I see more Trump signs than Hildebitch signs---of course, I don't see many signs at all.
I live in a highly partisan democratic area of Dallas and I see more Trump signs than Hildebitch signs---of course, I don't see many signs at all.
Might be right, but curious - why do you think that's overblown as an indicator of comparable voter enthusiasm?
I don't necessarily think it is overblown as an indicator of enthusiasm, just the eventual outcome.
There will be over 125MM votes cast on election night (or before). Several thousand people at a rally is not necessarily indicative of the number of votes the candidate will garner.
Her #2 is flawed. The polls are not perfect but they are generally predictive. Trump has a lot of ground to make up right now.
I agree. I guess what we don't know for sure is how much disconnect/noise is there between the state polls and the national polls with a Trump candidacy.
I still contend that his effect will not be as pronounced in the general as in the primaries On the other hand, Hillary is a very much despised, loathsome excuse for a human being, so he's got that going for him.
Based on the 270towin state of the race map, Trump could win every state they show as a tossup, and still lose. They have moved Pennsylvania into the leans Clinton category. Maybe the polls are way off on his actual support, although it is worth noting, polls only were not that far off during the Republican primary. I believe it was net 2.5% more than what the polls showed for him. Even giving him that amount in each toss up state, he still doesn't turn any of them.
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