This is why you ignore polls

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

The majority of polls the media pushes says Kamala is going to win. Some say easily.

Here's a list of the most accurate pollsters in 2020, according to Nate Silver, who @my_2cents is a big fan of. Nate analyzed the percentage error pollsters had in the last 21 days before the 2020 election.

AtlasIntel, Trafalgar and Rasmussen were the most accurate.

So what are those three most accurate pollsters saying about the 2024 race?

AtlasIntel:


Trafalgar doesn't do national polling, it does have swing state polls:





Rasmussen:



So if you listen to the media, Kamala is running away with this race.

If you listen to the most accurate pollsters. Trump is running away with this race, and even states like NM, Virginia and Minnesota are tossups.

Another reason why smart people ignore the media. "But Google said...."

 

[fatman76]

The majority of polls the media pushes says Kamala is going to win. Some say easily.

Here's a list of the most accurate pollsters in 2020, according to Nate Silver, who @my_2cents is a big fan of. Nate analyzed the percentage error pollsters had in the last 21 days before the 2020 election.

AtlasIntel, Trafalgar and Rasmussen were the most accurate.

So what are those three most accurate pollsters saying about the 2024 race?

AtlasIntel:

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Trafalgar doesn't do national polling, it does have swing state polls:

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Rasmussen:

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So if you listen to the media, Kamala is running away with this race.

If you listen to the most accurate pollsters. Trump is running away with this race, and even states like NM, Virginia and Minnesota are tossups.

Another reason why smart people ignore the media. "But Google said...."

While I agree polls suck, Trump underperformed 5-9% in the last two elections.

If this polling is even close, and if he gets even half that type of performance this cycle, it’s gonna be a landslide.

She’s making a panic visit to the border, trying to get another CNN debate (she declined to debate on FN), and apparently is about to release an economic policy (after early voting has started in some states)…her internal polling must SUCK.

Don’t show this to @my_2cents - cause when the NYT isn’t covering for you, you’re in trouble. As she’s done more unscripted appearances her numbers are tanking. Honeymoon may be over finally.