The Case For Second

[wrestleknownothing]

The Race For The Podium

...Just got a little more interesting. Based on the newest set of Intermat rankings Iowa's room for error is slipping away. After a tough couple of weeks Iowa's expected lead over Oklahoma State has shrunk from ~23 points on Jan. 21 to the current ~7 points.

Intermat has Iowa wrestlers ranked lower than Flo at 5 of the 10 weights (125, 133, 157, 174, and 184). The most consequential from an expected points perspective is Patrick Kennedy at 174. Flo slots Kennedy in at #7 while Intermat has him at #11.

Meanwhile Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio State, Northern Iowa, and Virginia Tech are just too close to call for the fourth, and final, spot.



Of course, I am cherry picking a bit (but you don't mind, right?).

Flo and Wrestlestat each have it at about a 15 point lead for Iowa over Oklahoma State.

 

[SlickWillie2018]

 

[west2east]

I still think we see Nelson at 174 and he's a 4-8 type of guy

 

[chasepollard]

#1 - Penn State may score 200 points

#2 - Based off of the previous data, I would say it is neck and neck for 2nd just based off the unknown of how well DT and staff have the guys rolling in March.

The data on Iowa is solid and I expect them to do well, but have some guys dissapoint in regards to Wrestling to seed.

The data on bonus rate increase at OSU also needs to be taken in. I think OSU and Iowa trot out a similar number of AA and placement, but OSU has a real chance to unseat them with bonus ability.

Maybe not?

 

[chasepollard]

I still think we see Nelson at 174 and he's a 4-8 type of guy

If you don't mind, give you honest prediction by weight for your lineup. If not, I understand.

 

[west2east]

Iowa line up and predictions
125 Cruz 1-2 or 2-2 he's draw dependent
133 Ayala places 1-3
141 Cullan hopefully qualifies
149 Parco places 2-4
157 Teemer places 1-4
165 Caliendo Finalist 2nd
174 Nelson places 4-6
184 Gabe places 6-8
197 Buchanan Finalist can win it
Hwt Kueter places 6-8

Would guess 3 finalists in Ayala Caliendo Buchanan. If Teemer shape is good he can also be a finalist. Parco needs Lovett on his side and Van Ness and Henson on the other to be a finalist

 

[oklahomaglory]

@west2east I look at your predictions as best case for Iowa. I find it difficult to see Kueter placing in top 8. But there is a chance I guess. I see Buchanan winning 197.

 

[oklahomaglory]

Sprately - Top 8
Reece - 1-2 or 2-2
Jamieson - Top 8
Carter - 1-2 or 0-2
Fish - Blood round or AA
Amine - AA or blood round
Hamiti - Top 4 or finalist
Plott - Top 4
Surber - Blood round or AA
Hendrickson - Top 4 or finalist

This is what I see for OSU

 

[west2east]

@west2east I look at your predictions as best case for Iowa. I find it difficult to see Kueter placing in top 8. But there is a chance I guess. I see Buchanan winning 197.

Oklahoma st
125 Spratley places 3-5
133 Witcraft goes 2-2
141 Jamison places 4-6
149 Young 2-2
157 Fish blood round
165 Amine places 5-8
174 Hamiti places 2-3
184 Plott places 2-3
197 Surber places 6-8
Hwt Hendrickson places 2-3

7 AA. And maybe 1 finalist. Be tough for Hamiti to beat Haines or Otoole same can be said for Plott against Carter and Keck. I can see Wyatt beating Kerk this year and making the finals.

5 of the 7 AA are transfers for Oklahoma st with all 5 from the NIL era. Iowa with 4 of the 8 AA being NIL era guys

 

[driad]

What are Wyatt chances against Kerkvliet?

 

[west2east]

What are Wyatt chances against Kerkvliet?

I would say it's 45% currently. Would've said 40% if DT wasn't the coach. He knows everything Kerk does and will have Wyatt prepared

 

[driad]

I would say it's 45% currently. Would've said 40% if DT wasn't the coach. He knows everything Kerk does and will have Wyatt prepared

Would both their chances against gable be 0?

 

[west2east]

Would both their chances against gable be 0?

I would say 2% an injury could happen. But no one is beating Gable straight up those chances are 0

 

[bwel9339]

I still think we see Nelson at 174 and he's a 4-8 type of guy

How many matches has Brands wrestled this season? That seems like a total screw job on Kennedy. How does Brands even qualify for post season?

 

[west2east]

How many matches has Brands wrestled this season? That seems like a total screw job on Kennedy. How does Brands even qualify for post season?

He's 3-1. He would qualify by placing within the allocated spots at the Big 10 tournament. Teemer will need to do the same he's currently 3-2. Neither will allocate a spot for the conference. Brands has shown in the past he will wrestle his best line up regardless of who allocates

 

[wrestleknownothing]

Oklahoma st
125 Spratley places 3-5
133 Witcraft goes 2-2
141 Jamison places 4-6
149 Young 2-2
157 Fish blood round
165 Amine places 5-8
174 Hamiti places 2-3
184 Plott places 2-3
197 Surber places 6-8
Hwt Hendrickson places 2-3

7 AA. And maybe 1 finalist. Be tough for Hamiti to beat Haines or Otoole same can be said for Plott against Carter and Keck. I can see Wyatt beating Kerk this year and making the finals.

5 of the 7 AA are transfers for Oklahoma st with 3 from the NIL era. Iowa will have 5 transfers in the line up and 4 from the NIL era with 4 of the 8 AA being NIL era guys

8 AAs for Iowa and 7 for Oklahoma State is aggressive. Especially with Iowa not favored to qualify 10.

To me the most likely outcome for both teams is 6 AAs. Iowa has an equal chance of getting to 7 or dropping to 5, while Oklahoma State has more risk of dropping to 5.

 

[bwel9339]

He's 3-1. He would qualify by placing within the allocated spots at the Big 10 tournament. Teemer will need to do the same he's currently 3-2. Neither will allocate a spot for the conference. Brands has shown in the past he will wrestle his best line up regardless of who allocates

If Brands is tops at 174 for Iowa, why has Kennedy wrestled essentially the entire season? Obviously I’m not an Iowa fan but just think that horrible to do to Kennedy. Kennedy obviously loves Iowa and leaves 100% on the mat in every dual. If your reasoning is correct than why isn’t Ferrari going to go at 184 for Big 10’s and Nationals.

 

[west2east]

If Brands is tops at 174 for Iowa, why has Kennedy wrestled essentially the entire season? Obviously I’m not an Iowa fan but just think that horrible to do to Kennedy. Kennedy obviously loves Iowa and leaves 100% on the mat in every dual. If your reasoning is correct than why isn’t Ferrari going to go at 184 for Big 10’s and Nationals.

Brands got hurt . In the Chael videos he did from Iowa City you can see Nelson leg all taped up. 184 has 3 stud seniors in Carter ,Keck and Plott.

 

[DEWrestlingFan]

This is just how I see it. Iowa has potential for more finalists and/or national champs. I feel that OK State is more balanced with mid level AA's, but not many making the finals.

125: OSU 3-6. Iowa Qualifier.
133: OSU R16. Iowa 1-4.
141: OSU 4-8. Iowa Maybe Qualifier.
149: OSU Qualifier. Iowa 1-4.
157: OSU R12. Iowa 1-4.
165: OSU 4-8. Iowa 2-4.
174: OSU 1-4. Iowa 6-R12.
184: OSU 3-4. Iowa 6-R12.
197: OSU 4-8. Iowa 1-4.
HWT: OSU 2-4. Iowa 7-R16.

 

[Pennstate1985]

#1 - Penn State may score 200 points

This was your most important point. Well stated... 😇

 

[Pennstate1985]

#1 - Penn State may score 200 points

#2 - Based off of the previous data, I would say it is neck and neck for 2nd just based off the unknown of how well DT and staff have the guys rolling in March.

The data on Iowa is solid and I expect them to do well, but have some guys dissapoint in regards to Wrestling to seed.

The data on bonus rate increase at OSU also needs to be taken in. I think OSU and Iowa trot out a similar number of AA and placement, but OSU has a real chance to unseat them with bonus ability.

Maybe not?

Actually, this is a good take. I see OSU slightly behind at the moment, but the unknown is DT's coaching ability the next 5 weeks. Has he trained the guys correctly all season for NCAAs? How good is their in-tournament scouting? I think he will pass both tests but this may be the most interesting part of nationals. In other words, his version of "hello world".

We already know what Brands and company can do, so the difference is going to be DT in March.

 

[chasepollard]

Iowa line up and predictions
125 Cruz 1-2 or 2-2 he's draw dependent
133 Ayala places 1-3
141 Cullan hopefully qualifies
149 Parco places 2-4
157 Teemer places 1-4
165 Caliendo Finalist 2nd
174 Nelson places 4-6
184 Gabe places 6-8
197 Buchanan Finalist can win it
Hwt Kueter places 6-8

Would guess 3 finalists in Ayala Caliendo Buchanan. If Teemer shape is good he can also be a finalist. Parco needs Lovett on his side and Van Ness and Henson on the other to be a finalist

Not homer'ish IMO. Maybe a tad.

125 - I see Cruz as a one win guy depending on draw. But, he is also working out with Lee and Ayala...which is worth an unexpected win at a minimum.
133- Wide open weight. I think Ayala makes the finals.
141 - NQ
149 - I think you have Parco a little high how he's currently Wrestling. Seems like Jekyl and Hyde right now? I'd say 6-8 or 2-4 depending on which guy shows up.
157 - Same as Parco. Hard to predict these two.
165 - Depending on draw, I'd say finals.
175 - If it is Nelson, how injured is he? Wrestling IQ most likely AA's, but I won't say mid level until we see him go. So 6-8.
184 - I think Gabe is a low AA, so we agree here.
197 - I think he wins it.
HWT - I see 2-2 with him. This weight is still pretty robust with tough guys.

So, I loosely predict 7 AA's. I just don't expect a ton of bonus from this lineup.

125 - Spratley is going to range from finalist to 7-8. But, he will bonus a few guys.
133 - Reece can sneak in, but if we are avoiding homerism, 2-2 with some bonus.
141 - Tagen is alot like Troy. I can see him sneaking into the finals, or falling to low AA.
149 - He should be like Reece, but he is in almost every match you throw at him. The dual at Carver will tell us something.
157 - Just like Reece and Carter. It wouldn't surpise me to see him AA.
165 - Depends on draw, but he can finish 3-4 and low end 7-8.
174 - He's going to make the finals.
184 - 3 with lots of bonus
197 - I see him 5-8
285 - Finals

So, I got 4 AA and more bonus with the same finals competitors. So, we edge you guys out and I cannot wait for the dual.

 

[west2east]

Not homer'ish IMO. Maybe a tad.

125 - I see Cruz as a one win guy depending on draw. But, he is also working out with Lee and Ayala...which is worth an unexpected win at a minimum.
133- Wide open weight. I think Ayala makes the finals.
141 - NQ
149 - I think you have Parco a little high how he's currently Wrestling. Seems like Jekyl and Hyde right now? I'd say 6-8 or 2-4 depending on which guy shows up.
157 - Same as Parco. Hard to predict these two.
165 - Depending on draw, I'd say finals.
175 - If it is Nelson, how injured is he? Wrestling IQ most likely AA's, but I won't say mid level until we see him go. So 6-8.
184 - I think Gabe is a low AA, so we agree here.
197 - I think he wins it.
HWT - I see 2-2 with him. This weight is still pretty robust with tough guys.

So, I loosely predict 7 AA's. I just don't expect a ton of bonus from this lineup.

125 - Spratley is going to range from finalist to 7-8. But, he will bonus a few guys.
133 - Reece can sneak in, but if we are avoiding homerism, 2-2 with some bonus.
141 - Tagen is alot like Troy. I can see him sneaking into the finals, or falling to low AA.
149 - He should be like Reece, but he is in almost every match you throw at him. The dual at Carver will tell us something.
157 - Just like Reece and Carter. It wouldn't surpise me to see him AA.
165 - Depends on draw, but he can finish 3-4 and low end 7-8.
174 - He's going to make the finals.
184 - 3 with lots of bonus
197 - I see him 5-8
285 - Finals

So, I got 4 AA and more bonus with the same finals competitors. So, we edge you guys out and I cannot wait for the dual.

Not sure your 4 AA would beat Iowa if they had 7AA. You would need like 20 bonus points. I think Oklahoma St has more AA then that. I would set the over/under at 5.5. The dual is gonna be electric and have everyone standing wherever they're watching it won't be easy to stay seated during this one

 

[chasepollard]

Not sure your 4 AA would beat Iowa if they had 7AA. You would need like 20 bonus points. I think Oklahoma St has more AA then that. I would set the over/under at 5.5. The dual is gonna be electric and have everyone standing wherever they're watching it won't be easy to stay seated during this one

I guess 7 AA's? I am confused on the first sentence?

Also, I predict we have 30 points of bonus.

 

[west2east]

I guess 7 AA's? I am confused on the first sentence?

Also, I predict we have 30 points of bonus.

You said 4 AA for Oklahoma st and 7 for Iowa.
Iowa will also get bonus from Ayala & Buchanan a few times Caliendo as well . I think Parco early in the tournament will as well. Just so you know last year Penn st had 35 bonus points