Prediction Markets vs Polls

[tlwwake]

Another big takeaway from this election..

Prediction/betting markets were ahead of the curve and more responsive than polls in this cycle

Kalshi and PolyMarket will get a lot of attention but I’ve been following PredictIt since the 2020 election and they have been spot on each time with nominations, winners, VP picks, etc.

So might want to save PredictIt for 2026 and 2028

 

[TPOKE]

I think 2025 is going to be rough regardless who the president was going to be. I’m not a big believer that the president has a lot power over the markets.

 

[tlwwake]

I think 2025 is going to be rough regardless who the president was going to be. I’m not a big believer that the president has a lot power over the markets.

Dow shot way up last night in response to Trumps victory

 

[CowboyBSBL]

It was pathetic how long it took them to call the election.

Polymarket was openly mocking them.

 

[TPOKE]

Dow shot way up last night in response to Trumps victory

I hope it does well, a lot of emotion still in the air.

 

[trapped_in_tx]

Dow shot way up last night in response to Trumps victory

Personally, I think the enthusiasm is 25% Trump and 75% there’s an actual winner declared by pretty much everyone by market open the day after

 

[tlwwake]

Personally, I think the enthusiasm is 25% Trump and 75% there’s an actual winner declared by pretty much everyone by market open the day after

Might be closer to 50/50 but yes HUGE win that we had a declared winner so early

 

[trapped_in_tx]

Might be closer to 50/50 but yes HUGE win that we had a declared winner so early

I have a customer presentation in 90 minutes so I had to give up at 1a MST. I wanted to wait for NYT and AP to call WI and the election but just couldn’t do it.

 

[OKSTATE1]

Dow shot way up last night in response to Trumps victory

I would think due to no tax increase for the corp rate, and no tax on unrealized gains which would have KILLED the market.