However, after the first 2 weeks, #2 seems more likely to me.
Based just on the artlessness of the immigration ban and what... crowd size dick measuring? I think that it's fairly objectively provable that he's gotten a lot done in his first two weeks that were exactly what he was elected to do. Right now it's easy stuff - EO's that overturn other EO's, mostly.
As an economic barometer, jobs creation and reinvestment in American workers and manufacturing is already robust.
For me, further proof that he's being successful will be:
1. How he handles ISIS. I'm confident this will be Mattis' plan and it will work as well as any plan can.
2. How he handles Iran and China - both potential hot spots, but both need to be brought to heel before they become larger global problems.
3. Tax plan, does it kick start the economy as planned? What are the details?
4. Repeal/Replace - I like what I've seen of Rand Paul's plan. This needs to be the direction we go IMO. Will we and how quickly do we? Will it work?
5. Border security/Immigration - we have an open southern border that far scarier people than just "dreamers" from Mexico cross every day. Between this and a hit and miss vetting process, it's not a matter of if but when we suffer heavy consequences for these policies - which are less humanitarian and more about votes anyway.
I don't care about people being scared or offended. I do care about the Constitution. As long as he stays within it's boundaries, I'm not worried about the authoritarian stuff. That will be my primary question in anything he does - not did he phrase it right? Did he offend someone? Don't f*ing care.