It all comes down to NC and PA tonight IMHO

[aix_xpert]

In prior years it said independent split was about 50/50.

Trump won in '16 even though Dems had a 500K person registration advantage. (I haven't found stats on what percentage of party voted). If Ds and Rs voted roughly equally, then R's would have had an edge of about 55-45 in the independent voters in '16. Remains to be seen if that holds true in '20.

 

[Rdcldad]

FLA is a wrap

 

[OKSTATE1]

FLA is a wrap

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How far off would this make the polling prior to the election if this holds up?

 

[aix_xpert]

How far off would this make the polling prior to the election if this holds up?

RCP has Biden at +.9 and 538 has Biden +1.5. A 300K win by Trump would be about Trump +2.5. So if you go +4 Trump for all states on the 538 polls, Biden wins the election 278-260 with PA being the 'swing' state.

 

[aix_xpert]

RCP has Biden at +.9 and 538 has Biden +1.5. A 300K win by Trump would be about Trump +2.5. So if you go +4 Trump for all states on the 538 polls, Biden wins the election 278-260 with PA being the 'swing' state.

BTW, 538 has Biden +4.7 in PA. However RCP only has it at Biden +1.2. So if you do the same math as above but use the RCP averages, you end up with 4 more years of Trump. Also of note on RCP: As of election day, Trump is polling +.7 AHEAD of where he did against Hillary in PA.

 

[davidallen]

BTW, 538 has Biden +4.7 in PA. However RCP only has it at Biden +1.2. So if you do the same math as above but use the RCP averages, you end up with 4 more years of Trump. Also of note on RCP: As of election day, Trump is polling +.7 AHEAD of where he did against Hillary in PA.

Interested to see how well Nate Silver has handicapped the pollsters vs. RCP's method. They have done a ton of work to separate the wheat from the chaff.

 

[N. Pappagiorgio]

FLA is a wrap

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Now at 164,000

 

[N. Pappagiorgio]

Serious question. What about Independents? I think there a lot in Fla.

The assumption is a 50/50 split. We shall see.

 

[Mr.OSU]

Look at left hand side.

These are not actual votes but voters that have voted and their party affiliation.

I think Trump has taken Florida. Seems like it will be a tight one. Needs to take one in the lake states.

 

[Rdcldad]

RCP has Biden at +.9 and 538 has Biden +1.5. A 300K win by Trump would be about Trump +2.5. So if you go +4 Trump for all states on the 538 polls, Biden wins the election 278-260 with PA being the 'swing' state.

wtf

i’m digging up sourcing to validate my posts

and you are quoting bullshit to establish a baseline

 

[Rdcldad]

 

[Rdcldad]

this moron nate silver is 538

pimping browsed country as the entire state is a disaster for the ccp/dnc