hello, world

[wrestleknownothing]

Now that I am finally able to post on this board I thought I would start with something you might find interesting.

Let's start with the big picture. Given the current rankings from Intermat, Flo and Wrestlestat how many AA's and how many points should Oklahoma State fans expect?



For this I calculate the probability of AA and points by seed using the last ten years of NCAA results.

You should expect 84 to 85.5 points and between 5.4 and 5.5 AA's come March. You might reasonable ask "how can you have four tenths of an AA?" Well, you can't. So what that means is you have some probability of 5 and some probability of 6 (and other numbers) that adds up to 5.4.

So what does that look like?



Based on that the most likely outcomes in order are:

1. 6 AAs
2. 5 AAs
3. 7 AAs
4. 4 AAs
5. 3 AAs
6. 8 AAs
7. 2 AAs
8. 9 AAs
9. 1 AA
10. 10 AAs (0.018%)
11. 0 AAs (0.004%)

 

[chasepollard]

Now that I am finally able to post on this board I thought I would start with something you might find interesting.

Let's start with the big picture. Given the current rankings from Intermat, Flo and Wrestlestat how many AA's and how many points should Oklahoma State fans expect?



For this I calculate the probability of AA and points by seed using the last ten years of NCAA results.

You should expect 84 to 85.5 points and between 5.4 and 5.5 AA's come March. You might reasonable ask "how can you have four tenths of an AA?" Well, you can't. So what that means is you have some probability of 5 and some probability of 6 (and other numbers) that adds up to 5.4.

So what does that look like?



Based on that the most likely outcomes in order are:

1. 6 AAs
2. 5 AAs
3. 7 AAs
4. 4 AAs
5. 3 AAs
6. 8 AAs
7. 2 AAs
8. 9 AAs
9. 1 AA
10. 10 AAs (0.018%)
11. 0 AAs (0.004%)

Nice, but the math ain't mathing.

I've got us with 10 AA's, and my math has the DT and staff variable as well as the RW and Fish throw you on your head variable.

CY has just been farting around to avoid putting things on film and that variable is un-variable'able.

Jokes aside, good discussion info!

 

[johnstownsteel]

Ill be cheering for them to beat Iowa for second place..

 

[Pennstate1985]

Ill be cheering for them to beat Iowa for second place..

you and me both. If nothing more than to give me several days of feasting on their tears. Do tears have calories?

 

[Chasingthirty-five]

Now that I am finally able to post on this board I thought I would start with something you might find interesting.

You sir, are a gentleman and a scholar. Idk what back alley library you hail from but you’re numbers are welcome here.

Have you run the same numbers with PSU and Iowa?