Debt to top World War II peak within 20 years

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

And what I am saying is that all of that debt didn't prevent growth or really cause any problems at all. If you want people to panic about the debt, saying that "in twenty years it will reach an arbitrary level that hasn't been associated with negative outcomes," isn't the best tact.
If growth stays at 2% then the interest rate projections from the CBO (publisher of this report) will be laughably wrong. Go look at the interest rates projected for 2016 in the 2010 report for a good illustration of the CBO's track record.
CBO projects entitlements to go from 13.2% of GDP to 16.9% over the next 30 years, I think we will manage.

I'm not personally advocating panic.

The CBO projections don't factor in any increased entitlements that are probable if HRC is elected and due to some fix of the Obamacare exchange mess. I wasn't relying on any CBO projection, not directly anyway.

In post-war USA and Europe the debt didn't preclude growth because there was incredible pent up demand and population growth. I'm not saying the low growth now is directly due to debt levels, but at some point, if debt keeps increasing and the growth engine can't be revved up, then your options started reducing. Low interest rates have (and appears will for the near future) helped significantly.

 

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

I mean it should surprise me, but given how little Oklahomans care about education too, it doesn't. You all don't get it, and you obviously will never get it.

Enjoy Hillary 2016 cuz it's comin.

Slip, sliding away... http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article89192652.html

 

[Clinton Scott]

Slip, sliding away... http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article89192652.html

Ummm...you do realize that once the dirt on Trump comes to light (audits, lawsuits for rape, etc.), that her lead will just ratchet right back up, right?

Shouldn't be that hard to see for you politically-savvy folk.

 

[JonnyVito]

If Obama didn't have to show his birth certificate why the hell would we care about Trumps tax returns. I mean Obama buddies owe them millions and you don't give two shits. Where is the outrage against Al Sharpton? You are a pawn Clinton and they are playing you perfect.

 

[CBradSmith]

Lol @ Toons

Pilt, you cite a projected increase by percent of entitlement spending. Was there a similar projection on debt servicing?

 

[Clinton Scott]

JV is still a BIRTHER? Lol...mmmkay...

 

[07pilt]

The CBO projections don't factor in any increased entitlements that are probable if HRC is elected and due to some fix of the Obamacare exchange mess. I wasn't relying on any CBO projection, not directly anyway.

You know it will be offset by taxes (although it shouldn't be (taxes should move with interest rates and inflation not spending)). Either way:
1. Any new entitlements not directed at the elderly will shrink as a share of GDP as we approach 2046. Which is just to say the danger of population dynamics making new non elderly directed entitlement liabilities run out of control is low.
2. Entitlements that don't affect the amount of goods and services provisioned aren't a drain on resources they are just a transfer of payment responsibility (which is fair grounds for opposition). In the case of healthcare, entitlements may marginally increase the amount of care provided but that is at least partially offset by increased health (productivity) and less administration (if well designed (so not likely with HRC)). A college entitlement that doesn't change enrollment is only a shift in who pays for an existing expense. A college entitlement that does change enrollment, if well designed (so again no HRC), should be offset by the increased productivity of the college grads.

 

[07pilt]

Lol @ Toons

Pilt, you cite a projected increase by percent of entitlement spending. Was there a similar projection on debt servicing?

Yeah, from 1.4 to 5.1. The report is at https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51580-LTBO.pdf
Again that projection is highly sensitive to the interest rate path. Interest payments are just a transfer from the government sector to the private sector. That is money in your pockets (if you buy bonds).

 

[JonnyVito]

JV is still a BIRTHER? Lol...mmmkay...

Now you just make shit up and run with it? DO you work at SI? Geeze you are one dumb mental midget.

 

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

Ummm...you do realize that once the dirt on Trump comes to light (audits, lawsuits for rape, etc.), that her lead will just ratchet right back up, right?

Shouldn't be that hard to see for you politically-savvy folk.

Again, I've predicted he'll lose. You talk super big about how he's going to lose big and wouldn't even accept a friendly low impact wager on the proposition.

 

[PDT816]

Yeah, from 1.4 to 5.1. The report is at https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51580-LTBO.pdf
Again that projection is highly sensitive to the interest rate path. Interest payments are just a transfer from the government sector to the private sector. That is money in your pockets (if you buy bonds).

CBO is a calculator. They just crunch the numbers they are given when asked to do a report.

Have to be really careful throwing out stats from them until you've examined exactly what numbers they were asked to crunch.

 

[Clinton Scott]

Again, I've predicted he'll lose. You talk super big about how he's going to lose big and wouldn't even accept a friendly low impact wager on the proposition.

I just don't care...I called this election to my friends more than a year ago, I knew it would be Hillary v Trump with Hillary winning. Trump's continual habit of sticking his foot in his mouth, like bringing up Saddam Hussein and praising him.

 

[07pilt]

CBO is a calculator. They just crunch the numbers they are given when asked to do a report.

Have to be really careful throwing out stats from them until you've examined exactly what numbers they were asked to crunch.

Not only that, they make a whole host of assumptions to which their results are highly sensitive.

 

[CBradSmith]

Not only that, they make a whole host of assumptions to which their results are highly sensitive.

Are the assumptions themselves run through a statistical distribution model before added with any degree of reasonability?

Further, are best, worst, and most-likely scenarios projected based on all available historical data?

 

[Bitter Creek]

Yeah, from 1.4 to 5.1. Interest payments are just a transfer from the government sector to the private sector. (if you buy bonds).

Where does the government get its money?

 

[07pilt]

Where does the government get its money?

Where does the BPS stadium score board get its points?

 

[07pilt]

Are the assumptions themselves run through a statistical distribution model before added with any degree of reasonability?

Further, are best, worst, and most-likely scenarios projected based on all available historical data?

You will have to ask the CBO. The have been woefully wrong recently about interest rates.

 

[N. Pappagiorgio]

No income tax whatsoever from single income under 25,000 and dual income under 50,000? Lowering business income tax to no more than 15 percent?

It makes no sense, the revenues would plummet and ensure our future plight.

You sir are a fine fiscal conservative.

 

[CBradSmith]

You sir are a fine fiscal conservative.

Hey now, he wants to conserve money for the government.

 

[poke2001]

You sir are a fine fiscal conservative.

I'm still waiting on one thing that he's even moderate on and not a raging liberal. Even s moderate knows businesses don't pay taxes.

 

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

Ummm...you do realize that once the dirt on Trump comes to light (audits, lawsuits for rape, etc.), that her lead will just ratchet right back up, right?

Shouldn't be that hard to see for you politically-savvy folk.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/15/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-poll.html?_r=1

 

[Clinton Scott]

A non-partisan breakdown of Hillary v Trump and future debt...

http://crfb.org/papers/promises-and-price-tags-fiscal-guide-2016-election