Crystal Ball - Oklahoma State

[McScoreley]

Thought this was worth starting another discussion (apologies if excessive and obviously feel free to merge into "Next Years Line Up")

He has Oklahoma State 3rd with 83 points. Willie's Crystal Ball points by place so while it does bake in bonus, it's a conservative estimate. For example, Dustin Plott scores 15 for getting 3rd (1.5 total bonus) But if he records a tech and 2 majors on his way to 3rd, he's at 17.

He has

Spratley 5
Hughes R12
Jamison R12
Young R12
Travis 0-2 or 1-2 (he only awards if he has R16, aka winning 2 matches at least)
Amine 6
Hamiti 3
Plott 3
Surber 0-2 or 1-2 (like Travis)
Hendrickson 2

IMO these are pretty bearish if anything. Amine has placed 4th twice in deeper 165s and I believe will be rejuvenated. I think giving 3 R12 from 133 to 149 is kind of hedging for one AA in that group (since thats 12 points awarded so that is 2 lower AAs or 1 mid AA) so I actually don't think that's an odd projection (even though it looks weird)

Big thing I am shocked by is predicting the eventual 197 starter to not be R16 when it's either a guy who has been R16 and beaten Elam and has given Buchanan all he wanted (Surber) or is a super college ready stud freshman (Merrill) and they're getting their butts beat by David Taylor all day and night.

 

[Air_Thurman]

Seems completely reasonable to me. I'm not sure who but I think we grab at least one AA between 33-57.

 

[Okie_Pat]

Seems completely reasonable to me. I'm not sure who but I think we grab at least one AA between 33-57.

My money would be on Jamison

 

[McScoreley]

So I will create some categories for you guys for fun:

The 4 Horsemen - The proven hammers, any of them missing the podium (or not being high on it/in the finals) is kind of disastrous (barring injury, knock on wood for good health for EVERY NCAA wrestler) - Hamiti, Amine, Hendrickson, Plott

Spratley - I'm putting him in his own tier. He was on the cusp last year and now works with Gilman and RBY daily. I would hit a money line for him AAing this year. While anything can happen at 125, I think most Poke fans would agree it would be pretty disappointing if he didn't this year.

The Cutters - the two guys on the team who have documented big cuts (Cael Hughes/Tagen Jamison) Hughes had a mishap at U20s and Jamison burnt out at the end of last year from the cut. The good news? DT will monitor their lifestyle and diet very carefully to make sure they are doing it the right way. Both guys talented enough but need to manage it over a season then for a 3 day tournament.

The DT Boost - So this is your 197 (Merrill/Surber) 197 is going to be a bread and butter weight for DT (being that's about how big he is) and he will take this personally. It's similar to PSU 165/174s always doing well since Casey is around that weight and 184/197 with Cael. They will get the best out of their guys even if it means beating it out of them in practice.

The Wildcards - From 141 to 157 in a year (and truly a 149), Teague Travis beat Ed Scott and went R16 .... now a summer to lift weights? Similarly, Carter Young had a magical summer before enrolling in Stillwater. DT/Kennedy are confident the magic exists and they're going to get it out of him (Jamison is going 141 for that reason)

 

[chasepollard]

Thought this was worth starting another discussion (apologies if excessive and obviously feel free to merge into "Next Years Line Up")

He has Oklahoma State 3rd with 83 points. Willie's Crystal Ball points by place so while it does bake in bonus, it's a conservative estimate. For example, Dustin Plott scores 15 for getting 3rd (1.5 total bonus) But if he records a tech and 2 majors on his way to 3rd, he's at 17.

He has

Spratley 5
Hughes R12
Jamison R12
Young R12
Travis 0-2 or 1-2 (he only awards if he has R16, aka winning 2 matches at least)
Amine 6
Hamiti 3
Plott 3
Surber 0-2 or 1-2 (like Travis)
Hendrickson 2

IMO these are pretty bearish if anything. Amine has placed 4th twice in deeper 165s and I believe will be rejuvenated. I think giving 3 R12 from 133 to 149 is kind of hedging for one AA in that group (since thats 12 points awarded so that is 2 lower AAs or 1 mid AA) so I actually don't think that's an odd projection (even though it looks weird)

Big thing I am shocked by is predicting the eventual 197 starter to not be R16 when it's either a guy who has been R16 and beaten Elam and has given Buchanan all he wanted (Surber) or is a super college ready stud freshman (Merrill) and they're getting their butts beat by David Taylor all day and night.

Not excessive and extremely fun. Can you state the point totals per team?

Lets not merge it?

-Sprat, yes, it will be disappointing if he doesn't AA, but the weight is a buzzsaw. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Finals.
-Hughes, I say AA, but it has been quite awhile since I've seen him Wrestle.
-Jamison, with the right cut, he is dangerous....r12 as a floor.
-Young, completely clueless here.
-Travis, completely disrespectful here. R12 guy to me?
-Amine, I agree. I think he will be more productive scoring and that is scary for the field to think about and a 6 place finish is low.
-Hamiti, I am excited and would be happy with this prediction.
-Plott, same as above but I sure would like to see him get a Title. Too tough to predict that though.
-Surber, if healthy is 100% an AA threat and 2-2 is probably the floor.
-Hendrickson, I agree.

 

[AtownPoke]

So I will create some categories for you guys for fun:

The 4 Horsemen - The proven hammers, any of them missing the podium (or not being high on it/in the finals) is kind of disastrous (barring injury, knock on wood for good health for EVERY NCAA wrestler) - Hamiti, Amine, Hendrickson, Plott

Spratley - I'm putting him in his own tier. He was on the cusp last year and now works with Gilman and RBY daily. I would hit a money line for him AAing this year. While anything can happen at 125, I think most Poke fans would agree it would be pretty disappointing if he didn't this year.

The Cutters - the two guys on the team who have documented big cuts (Cael Hughes/Tagen Jamison) Hughes had a mishap at U20s and Jamison burnt out at the end of last year from the cut. The good news? DT will monitor their lifestyle and diet very carefully to make sure they are doing it the right way. Both guys talented enough but need to manage it over a season then for a 3 day tournament.

The DT Boost - So this is your 197 (Merrill/Surber) 197 is going to be a bread and butter weight for DT (being that's about how big he is) and he will take this personally. It's similar to PSU 165/174s always doing well since Casey is around that weight and 184/197 with Cael. They will get the best out of their guys even if it means beating it out of them in practice.

The Wildcards - From 141 to 157 in a year (and truly a 149), Teague Travis beat Ed Scott and went R16 .... now a summer to lift weights? Similarly, Carter Young had a magical summer before enrolling in Stillwater. DT/Kennedy are confident the magic exists and they're going to get it out of him (Jamison is going 141 for that reason)

Great breakdown McScoreley!!! I agree and I think those groupings are spot on. Last year around the time of the midseason road trip we saw our guys peaking and whipping top ranked guys that we couldn’t hang with come NCAAs. If DT and crew are what we think they are then I think we’ll see these guys wrestling that way on a more consistent basis and they’ll be peaking come NCAAs. If that happens then we’ll far exceed Willie’s projections.

 

[McScoreley]

Great breakdown McScoreley!!! I agree and I think those groupings are spot on. Last year around the time of the midseason road trip we saw our guys peaking and whipping top ranked guys that we couldn’t hang with come NCAAs. If DT and crew are what we think they are then I think we’ll see these guys wrestling that way on a more consistent basis and they’ll be peaking come NCAAs. If that happens then we’ll far exceed Willie’s projections.

This season in January, your guys will look extremely flat and sluggish, have close matches with opponents they should dominate and maybe even take an odd loss, it's worth it, trust me.

Right @Pennstate1985 ?

 

[OK-AG04]

Huge cuts, especially in the smaller weights, tend to not work well. I really and truly hope I’m wrong.

 

[SlickWillie2018]

Hughes at 133 and Jamison at 141 probably gives me the most heartburn of any weights in the whole lineup. Purely because I don’t want those guys to fade down the stretch if the cut takes a physical toll. That said, there’s no reason not to trust the staff knows what they’re doing and has a plan. Only time will tell.

 

[McScoreley]

There's a right and wrong way to make large cuts. Number 1 is once again living the right lifestyle and not trying to cram it at the end.

DT will give the large cutters the right plan and it'll require discipline.

 

[smalls103]

i think i kind of low balled OKST overall. not on purpose but from the unknowns of a first year staff (and several weight uncertainties).

i have 133 to 157 (including Travis, btw) as either Blood Round or R16. an extra win or two from those guys could make a huge difference.

i also have no one at 197. not sure if it will be Surber or Merrill but it's pretty safe to say one of the two will be scoring at least something which will be reflected in Crystal Ball as soon as there's some sort of indication.

anyway, thanks for reading.

 

[Pennstate1985]

This season in January, your guys will look extremely flat and sluggish, have close matches with opponents they should dominate and maybe even take an odd loss, it's worth it, trust me.

Right @Pennstate1985 ?

EXACTLY. I've warned the guys/gals on here several times that somewhere in mid-January the wrestlers are going to wrestle like $hit up and down the lineup for a weekend. I call it hell week. It's prep time for NCAAs and DT will be putting them through a series of heavy workouts at weight to simulate a tourney. It's one of the secret ingredients in the sauce to PSU being so successful in "last matches" at nationals. By last matches, I mean finishing 1-3-5-7 instead of 2-4-6-8.

 

[Pennstate1985]

There's a right and wrong way to make large cuts. Number 1 is once again living the right lifestyle and not trying to cram it at the end.

DT will give the large cutters the right plan and it'll require discipline.

Nutrition training is a very understated aspect of success in wrestling. Sounds obvious, but when you're undisciplined in nutrition, you go through energy highs and lows throughout a day/week and the body learns to conserve and/or dump energy, often at the wrong time in long tournaments. This is where the "lifestyle" has to be lived, to teach the body a new normal that can get you through a 3 day tourney.

 

[skylinepoke]

EXACTLY. I've warned the guys/gals on here several times that somewhere in mid-January the wrestlers are going to wrestle like $hit up and down the lineup for a weekend. I call it hell week. It's prep time for NCAAs and DT will be putting them through a series of heavy workouts at weight to simulate a tourney. It's one of the secret ingredients in the sauce to PSU being so successful in "last matches" at nationals. By last matches, I mean finishing 1-3-5-7 instead of 2-4-6-8.

We used to see that "stall" here with John. You could count on a dud weekend in late January where everyone would leave the duals scratching their heads. The next weekend would be the total opposite in results.

 

[chasepollard]

i think i kind of low balled OKST overall. not on purpose but from the unknowns of a first year staff (and several weight uncertainties).

i have 133 to 157 (including Travis, btw) as either Blood Round or R16. an extra win or two from those guys could make a huge difference.

i also have no one at 197. not sure if it will be Surber or Merrill but it's pretty safe to say one of the two will be scoring at least something which will be reflected in Crystal Ball as soon as there's some sort of indication.

anyway, thanks for reading.

Funny to think that a hire can take a team to a low-ball 3rd place finish from a 10th place finish that was considered a massive improvement to the year before.

I enjoyed the read either way!

 

[AtownPoke]

i think i kind of low balled OKST overall. not on purpose but from the unknowns of a first year staff (and several weight uncertainties).

i have 133 to 157 (including Travis, btw) as either Blood Round or R16. an extra win or two from those guys could make a huge difference.

i also have no one at 197. not sure if it will be Surber or Merrill but it's pretty safe to say one of the two will be scoring at least something which will be reflected in Crystal Ball as soon as there's some sort of indication.

anyway, thanks for reading.

Thanks Willie... good stuff.

 

[Howie_Fartz]

Funny to think that a hire can take a team to a low-ball 3rd place finish from a 10th place finish that was considered a massive improvement to the year before.

I enjoyed the read either way!

Just a thought to insert here. A lot of that jump is due to the transfers and the previous staff had a great deal to do with that. Just gonna throw a little credit where its due. I do think DT and Co. will take all these guys to a higher level.

Great analysis, appreciate you taking the time McS.

 

[tom_v31]

So I will create some categories for you guys for fun:

The 4 Horsemen - The proven hammers, any of them missing the podium (or not being high on it/in the finals) is kind of disastrous (barring injury, knock on wood for good health for EVERY NCAA wrestler) - Hamiti, Amine, Hendrickson, Plott

Spratley - I'm putting him in his own tier. He was on the cusp last year and now works with Gilman and RBY daily. I would hit a money line for him AAing this year. While anything can happen at 125, I think most Poke fans would agree it would be pretty disappointing if he didn't this year.

The Cutters - the two guys on the team who have documented big cuts (Cael Hughes/Tagen Jamison) Hughes had a mishap at U20s and Jamison burnt out at the end of last year from the cut. The good news? DT will monitor their lifestyle and diet very carefully to make sure they are doing it the right way. Both guys talented enough but need to manage it over a season then for a 3 day tournament.

The DT Boost - So this is your 197 (Merrill/Surber) 197 is going to be a bread and butter weight for DT (being that's about how big he is) and he will take this personally. It's similar to PSU 165/174s always doing well since Casey is around that weight and 184/197 with Cael. They will get the best out of their guys even if it means beating it out of them in practice.

The Wildcards - From 141 to 157 in a year (and truly a 149), Teague Travis beat Ed Scott and went R16 .... now a summer to lift weights? Similarly, Carter Young had a magical summer before enrolling in Stillwater. DT/Kennedy are confident the magic exists and they're going to get it out of him (Jamison is going 141 for that reason)

I think the upside is pretty high with most these guys but, the finish to our season definitely gives me pause. I thought we would vie for second over Iowa, not to say we can’t, but with all the talent they are bringing in, they will be tough to beat with almost any team (not trying to throw shade, but not giving unrealistic expectations either). I think we will have our best team in years that can compete though. The following years only getting better though and I feel our approach is a better formula for long term success. PS, if Surber can stay healthy, which I think he can, he’s tough and a podium threat. Good post👍🏻

 

[tom_v31]

Hughes at 133 and Jamison at 141 probably gives me the most heartburn of any weights in the whole lineup. Purely because I don’t want those guys to fade down the stretch if the cut takes a physical toll. That said, there’s no reason not to trust the staff knows what they’re doing and has a plan. Only time will tell.

Cuts were big for some last year

 

[tom_v31]

i think i kind of low balled OKST overall. not on purpose but from the unknowns of a first year staff (and several weight uncertainties).

i have 133 to 157 (including Travis, btw) as either Blood Round or R16. an extra win or two from those guys could make a huge difference.

i also have no one at 197. not sure if it will be Surber or Merrill but it's pretty safe to say one of the two will be scoring at least something which will be reflected in Crystal Ball as soon as there's some sort of indication.

anyway, thanks for reading.

Preseason rankings only matter until the season begins. I would rather low-ball it a little instead of giving unrealistic expectations on a young team. 👍🏻

 

[Pennstate1985]

Preseason rankings only matter until the season begins. I would rather low-ball it a little instead of giving unrealistic expectations on a young team. 👍🏻

I agree. I was high on Jason Nolf as a RS frosh, but was okay with his low ranking to start the season. It's the end result that matters. He took second. I take Emperor Palpatine's stance on rankings. "let the hate flow through you. It will make you powerful".

 

[McScoreley]

The DT Boost - So this is your 197 (Merrill/Surber) 197 is going to be a bread and butter weight for DT (being that's about how big he is) and he will take this personally. It's similar to PSU 165/174s always doing well since Casey is around that weight and 184/197 with Cael. They will get the best out of their guys even if it means beating it out of them in practice.

🤔

 

[Air_Thurman]

🤔

I posted a lot of Surber skepticism. He had an awesome weekend. I don't think the the real question is if Surber can look good in Nov. Its if we can get the best version of Surber to March. I hope we can and he makes me look like an idiot. I love how the kid wrestles.