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Constitional conservatives...I have a question

C...and I think you're reasoning for A is flawed. Trump has never been and never will be a conservative. I'll be surprised if the SC nominee we get from Trump is that much different than what we get from Hillary. The fact that he's somehow convinced people that he is shows why he's been successful in business.
So you think that whole SC list thing is a giant scam?

I don't get all these people that think Trump is going to lie about everything then do the total opposite in office. The man has to much ego to want to go down as the biggest phony to ever become President. It makes no sense.
 
A as often as I can. Those who get the heebie jeebies about Trump somehow seem to forget that Trump will have a press corp, which has been absent the past 8 years, on him like stink of sh*t. Assuming he wanted to, there is no way he could get away with any of the stuff Obama, Hildebitch, Holder, Lerner, or anyone else has. If he sneezes they'll write tomes about it being code for his releasing anthrax all over the world. Him being no politician makes him more appealing. I have to trust that he will do much of what he has said...I KNOW what Hildebitch will do.
 
The biggest thing in his favor is that he wants to create a political dynasty, and he won't want to mess it up at the jump. The real question is if the guy who thinks you should always be the smartest one in the room, can help himself from messing it up.
 
A as often as I can. Those who get the heebie jeebies about Trump somehow seem to forget that Trump will have a press corp, which has been absent the past 8 years, on him like stink of sh*t. Assuming he wanted to, there is no way he could get away with any of the stuff Obama, Hildebitch, Holder, Lerner, or anyone else has. If he sneezes they'll write tomes about it being code for his releasing anthrax all over the world. Him being no politician makes him more appealing. I have to trust that he will do much of what he has said...I KNOW what Hildebitch will do.


Your 2nd sentence is the best argument in favor of Trump towards those who are undecided IMO.
 
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Yeah the polls were totally wrong about Trump.
republican-primary.jpg

He's actually doing well. Global warming data, the unemployment rate, Trump's numbers... all conspiracies.
 
I actually think Trump gets 10+ percentage bump from people who are too embarrassed to admit it but will pull his lever when no one can see them.
I think that is an insane number that you pulled out of your ass. The effect you describe will probably occur, but not to anywhere close that extent.

His one big shot is to rip her a new one in the debates as Mega has described and turn into a screaming banshee or make her have one of her twitchy/blackout fits. I don't believe it will happen, but I will concede it isn't beyond the realm of possibility.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong, even though I don't support Trump.
 
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Hey @Marshal Jim Duncan I'll admit I'm new to following politics. This is my first election to follow through all the way. So what's your prediction come November? I'm talking spread here. Most are saying it could be as much as Clinton by 12.
 
I think that is an insane number that you pulled out of your ass. The effect you describe will probably occur, but not to anywhere close that extent.

His one big shot is to rip her a new one in the debates as Mega has described and turn into a screaming banshee or make her have one of her twitchy/blackout fits. I don't believe it will happen, but I will concede it isn't beyond the realm of possibility.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong, even though I don't support Trump.

Half the people I know won't admit to voting for him but they are all staunch conservatives/republicans. Most of them will vote straight ticket republican so they get the deed done and still sleep at night by lying to themselves over it.
 
I'm a staunch Republican, or always have been at any rate. I'm not voting for him.

@tlwwake -- I think it's pretty early to predict a spread. I also think that, with the dislike of both major candidates that permeates much of the electorate the vote share achieved by the two leading "3rd party" candidates will be higher than typical and is still in flux. And I think net/net that will probably negatively impact Clinton more than Trump. I doubt Clinton gets more than 51-52% of the popular vote.
 
Obama beat Romney by 4%
Add 5% because it is Trump = 9%
Subtract 5% because it is Clinton = 4%
Add 2% for demographic shifts = 6%
 
Why does Trump pack the house in swing state rallies and Hillary barely gets a crowd?

The enthusiasm level is night and day. If minorities and dead people don't turn out in droves she is in trouble and they don't seem that crazy about her. Hell even the dead people are holding their noses.
 
Why does Trump pack the house in swing state rallies and Hillary barely gets a crowd?

The enthusiasm level is night and day. If minorities and dead people don't turn out in droves she is in trouble and they don't seem that crazy about her. Hell even the dead people are holding their noses.

Good gawd, it doesn't matter how many/not how many show up in August; he lost the minority/dead vote before he was the nominee. He's pissed off sofa king many folks, there's not enough pissed honkeys to even come close to covering his negatives.
 
The biggest factor that I don't know how can accurately be reflected in the poses is voter enthusiasm.

I think this is a big disadvantage for Her

I've been seriously wondering about this as well. Take voter enthusiasm + those who won't say out loud that they are voting Trump but fully plan too at the polls and it could be a landslide. Although I do hate the candidates this year, I have been loving the campaign season. We have already witnessed history with what Trump has accomplished and the political junky in me is very excited about November. Add that to the fact that I always enjoy a good train wreck and here we go. I think it's a sickness
 
The biggest factor that I don't know how can accurately be reflected in the poses is voter enthusiasm.

I think this is a big disadvantage for Her

Not too surprising, but rank and file democrats like her way more than rank and file republicans like him. This probably explains some of his trouble organizing. And if he can't stop sticking his foot in his mouth, I'd think the enthusiasm he does generate will waver even more among those who didn't vote for him in the primary.

Source
 
Not too surprising, but rank and file democrats like her way more than rank and file republicans like him. This probably explains some of his trouble organizing. And if he can't stop sticking his foot in his mouth, I'd think the enthusiasm he does generate will waver even more among those who didn't vote for him in the primary.

Source

Rank and file isn't relevant. I'm talking s out those who are really fired up. The kind of person who goes to his rallies will vote at or near 100%
 
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Is there any evidence that there are enough of them to get him over the top? Judging by the general demeanor of r/the_donald, I'd be shocked if most of the ones fired up for him are even old enough to vote.
 
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Is there any evidence that there are enough of them to get him over the top? Judging by the general demeanor of r/the_donald, I'd be shocked if most of the ones fired up for him are even old enough to vote.

Interesting. My perception has been that the young crowd is not on the Trump boat. Most were on the Bernie bandwagon and after that more likely to support the Democratic ticket.
 
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Admittedly, Reddit as a whole skews young, and I think that particular subreddit attracts a certain type of group who enjoy trolling, and I may just be hoping people who like doing that are young. It is hard to imagine a 40 year old referring to Trump as God-Emperor

I'd agree that a pretty good number of college age, and just out of college were Bernie supporters who are now going to support Hillary, or protest vote.

I guess there is some way to combine protest votes and stay at homes where Trump can win, I just don't think it is likely. He outperformed his poll numbers in the primary by an average of 2.4 points. That isn't enough shy Trump voters to put him over the top unless they are very strategically placed.
 
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Reminder – The 2016 Trump Conservative Critics Were 2009 Obama Fan Boys…

Posted on May 30, 2016 by sundance

By now almost everyone has acknowledged that Donald Trump ripped the masks from most of the modern professional punditry who espoused to be conservative yet showed their hidden ideological colors as elite globalists.

Since June ’15, on almost every issue those same pundits have now openly aligned themselves with GOPe agenda items like global trade, tax policy, big government spending, and advocacy to including advancement of Speaker Paul ‘Omnibus’ Ryan.

However, as sharp reader DrudgeAddict smartly pointed out last year, these voices were the exact group who gathered together in an exclusive meeting with President Obama in 2009 to sing his praises after the ’08 election. Including :

  • George Will
  • Michael Barone
  • David Brooks
  • Charles Krauthammer
  • Bill Kristol
  • Lawrence Kudlow
  • Rich Lowry
  • Peggy Noonan

All in attendance for a dinner meeting with president Obama before he took office. The post-meeting/dinner report in The New Yorker Magazine holds the following quotes told by the glowing participants of their time with President Obama:

Richard Lowry: “the only presidential candidate from either party about whom there is a palpable excitement”.

Charles Krauthammer: “Obama would be a president with the political intelligence of a Bill Clinton harnessed to the steely self-discipline of a Vladimir Putin”, who would “bestride the political stage as largely as did Reagan.”

Bill Kristol:“I look forward to Obama’s inauguration with a surprising degree of hope and good cheer.”

Larry Kudlow: “[Obama] loves to deal with both sides of the issue.” “He revels in the back and forth. And he wants to keep the dialogue going with conservatives.”

So is it really a surprise to read or hear their current, and collective, opinion of the horribly unwashed pro-America vulgarian Trump?


George Will 2015: Donald Trump Supporters Need To Come Into The Republican Party On Our Terms, Not Theirs” (link with video)

Rich Lowry 2015:Look Trump attacks everyone but she’s become a much bigger target. And I think part of what’s going on here is that last debate. Let’s be honest, Carly cut his balls off with the precision of a surgeon. (link with video)

Charles Krauthammer 2015: …”[…] And the pity is this: this is the strongest field of Republican candidates in 35 years. You could pick a dozen of them at random and have the strongest cabinet America has had in our lifetime, and instead, all of our time is spent discussing this rodeo clown.” (link)

Bill Kristol 2015: […] “I doubt I’d support Donald. I doubt I’d support the Democrat. I think I’d support getting someone good on the ballot as a third party candidate.” (link)

https://theconservativetreehouse.co...onservative-critics-were-2009-obama-fan-boys/
 
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Man Charles was very off back when...more like obysmal has the intelligence of a street hustler, the steely self-discipline of pee wee Herrmann and a politician who will bestride the political stage as a self-serving, narcissistic and veiled racist POS.
 
I actually think Trump gets 10+ percentage bump from people who are too embarrassed to admit it but will pull his lever when no one can see them.
If the vote was two weeks ago maybe... Today that is likely down the to 5 headed to 0 or even negative... People too proud to admit they changed their mind about him but would vote against him behind the curtain...
 
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