42%

[my_2cents]

The highest percentage of support Trump receives in the new Quinnipiac general election polls. Clearly a seriously worrisome number for the Trump campaign 17 months out from the election (especially given the current economic status).

He is able to obtain that level of support against Booker (Booker +5 advantage), Buttigieg (Buttigie +5 advantage), Warren (Warren +7 advantage), and Sanders (Sanders + 9 advantage). Against Harris and Biden, his level of supports falls but stil within the margin of error. Biden holds a +13 advantage on Trump. Ouch.

I know the Trump loyalists will ignore this poll and give the talking point about polls in 2016 (which is a myth btw). However, you can bet Trump and those around him aren't ignoring these numbers, as was clear yesterday when Trump went after Biden on the news of this poll. Good thing for Trump loyalists, this is registered voters. Other then that, not much good here for Trump and his supporters.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2627

 

[AC_Exotic]

How'd that Quinnipiac poll work out the last Presidential election?

 

[OUSOONER67]

I believe Reagans numbers were very similar at this point in his first term and he went on to win in a landslide. No worries here.

 

[my_2cents]

I believe Reagans numbers were very similar at this point in his first term and he went on to win in a landslide. No worries here.

As I posted above...

I know the Trump loyalists will ignore this poll and give the talking point about polls in 2016 (which is a myth btw). However, you can bet Trump and those around him aren't ignoring these numbers, as was clear yesterday when Trump went after Biden on the news of this poll.

 

[my_2cents]

I believe Reagans numbers were very similar at this point in his first term and he went on to win in a landslide. No worries here.

Trump isn't Reagan.

 

[OUSOONER67]

As I posted above...

If he loses he loses, won't be the end of the World and I won't cry about it like the Dems have since he won in 2016.

 

[22LR]

So the MSM has made this their big news story, and the Trump haters, looking for any slightest glimmer of hope, take the bait (again) and strut around like featherless cocks on social media.

Trump wins in 2020.

 

[OUSOONER67]

Trump isn't Reagan.

Reagan wasn't the Darling of the Ball while he was President.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/11887/ronald-reagan-from-peoples-perspective-gallup-poll-review.aspx

 

[CBradSmith]

The highest percentage of support Trump receives in the new Quinnipiac general election polls. Clearly a seriously worrisome number for the Trump campaign 17 months out from the election (especially given the current economic status).

"Clearly a seriously"

L - O - L

 

[long-duc-dong]

 

[my_2cents]

Reagan wasn't the Darling of the Ball while he was President.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/11887/ronald-reagan-from-peoples-perspective-gallup-poll-review.aspx

Again, Trump isn't Reagan. Not even close. Obama was/is like Reagan though.

Believe what ever you want, but I'm telling you, Trump's numbers (including his own internals that he doesn't want leaked) against his potential Democatic rivals are not good and are causing worry within his re-election campaign.

 

[cableok]

You have to admit that 42% is shockingly high considering the incredibly constant negative coverage he receives in the MSM and the non-stop Mueller probe.

 

[my_2cents]

You have to admit that 42% is shockingly high considering the incredibly constant negative coverage he receives in the MSM and the non-stop Mueller probe.

Not at all. That number is actually rather consistent with where his approval rating has been most of his term.

It should be higher given the condition of the economy and other factors he should have going for him as an incumbent President.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

 

[JimmyBob]

Obama was/is like Reagan though.

 

[Medic007]

Believe what ever you want, but I'm telling you, Trump's numbers (including his own internals that he doesn't want leaked) against his potential Democatic rivals are not good and are causing worry within his re-election campaign.

2016 polls had Hillary winning by a landslide. Only sycophants and fools would believe the polls.

 

[OUSOONER67]

Again, Trump isn't Reagan. Not even close. Obama was/is like Reagan though.

Believe what ever you want, but I'm telling you, Trump's numbers (including his own internals that he doesn't want leaked) against his potential Democatic rivals are not good and are causing worry within his re-election campaign.

Again, Reagan was not adored by most when he was in office as he is now by some.
Obama is/was like Reagan? Lmao
My point was Reagan was not very well liked when he was elected, I remember people laughing and making jokes about how America was a laughingstock for electing an Actor as President. I also remember some people were glad he got shot. And even more thought for sure he would get us into a Nuclear War with Russia.
All of the above except the shooting part were similar things the left has said about Trump, switch Russia for NK. Were you alive or very old when Reagan was elected?

The polling numbers right now mean squat, most experts agree but by all means take that shit and run with it if it makes you happy.

 

[GunsOfFrankEaton]

Again, Reagan was not adored by most when he was in office as he is now by some.
Obama is/was like Reagan? Lmao
My point was Reagan was not very well liked when he was elected, I remember people laughing and making jokes about how America was a laughingstock for electing an Actor as President. I also remember some people were glad he got shot. And even more thought for sure he would get us into a Nuclear War with Russia.
All of the above except the shooting part were similar things the left has said about Trump, switch Russia for NK. Were you alive or very old when Reagan was elected?

The polling numbers right now mean squat, most experts agree but by all means take that shit and run with it if it makes you happy.

Bingo.

 

[OUSOONER67]

In case you are too young to remember, the English band Genesis put out a rare for them Political song, which depicts what a lot of people thought of Reagan and other World leaders at the time. Pay particular attention to the end of the video. Not very flattering puppets were used either.

 

[Ponca Dan]

Haven't heard from you for awhile. If memory serves it wasn't too long ago you were assuring us that Kamala Harris was a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, and would beat Trump handily. I'm curious if you're still standing by that prediction.

 

[windriverrange]

Again, Trump isn't Reagan. Not even close. Obama was/is like Reagan though.

First off polls taken 17 months away from an election are crap. These are done more to pick a winner (and I use that word very loosely) from the crowd of nimrods that are running for the lead crown of being the socialist, race baiting, slave repatriating, TDS effected representative of the way modern liberal party.

Trumps strength is getting in front of crowds and he won't start doing that regularly for another 9 or 10 months. That you think the ex-rodent in chief is equal to Reagan is nothing but a dam fantasy.......he is more like Sgt. Schultz than Reagan and will go down in history as one of the worst presidents ever. This election won't start in earnest until March/April of 2020. You thinking these polls mean anything right now simply shows your lack of an ability to think outside your deep loathing for Trump.

 

[Rdcldad]

 

[my_2cents]

Haven't heard from you for awhile. If memory serves it wasn't too long ago you were assuring us that Kamala Harris was a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, and would beat Trump handily. I'm curious if you're still standing by that prediction.

Yes, I still believe Harris will be the nominee. If not Harris, then Biden and I could see a Biden/Harris ticket. I also wouldn't sleep on Sanders. And I think all three would beat Trump.

The question in terms of the nomination is where will individual candidates' support go once the field narrows. Will Biden pick up that support or will it go elsewhere?

 

[Rdcldad]

Yes, I still believe Harris will be the nominee. If not Harris, then Biden and I could see a Biden/Harris ticket. I also wouldn't sleep on Sanders. And I think all three would beat Trump.

The question in terms of the nomination is where will individual candidates' support go once the field narrows. Will Biden pick up that support or will it go elsewhere?

reeeeeeeeee

rrrrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 

[my_2cents]

The polling numbers right now mean squat, most experts agree but by all means take that shit and run with it if it makes you happy.

Not true, and Trump's own response the other day illustrates that he is paying attention to the polls. Especially his internals, which he demanded not be leaked or talked about.

Trump is in trouble for 2020. There is no doubt about that. Still, you are right, we are still 17 months out. But I think there is and will remain a ceiling for the amount of support Trump can garner and that is a minority percentage.

 

[Ponca Dan]

Yes, I still believe Harris will be the nominee. If not Harris, then Biden and I could see a Biden/Harris ticket. I also wouldn't sleep on Sanders. And I think all three would beat Trump.

The question in terms of the nomination is where will individual candidates' support go once the field narrows. Will Biden pick up that support or will it go elsewhere?

That’s interesting. What is it about Harris that you think will appeal to Democratic voters in the primaries, and all voters in the general? From my “outsider’s perspective from the grandstand” she strikes me as a lightweight intellectually, and stone deaf on things like wanting to bring charges against Trump. Hasn’t her own father distanced himself from her? Where is she in the California polls, third or fourth? Shouldn’t she be walking away with California since she’s a California legacy? I’m curious what you see in her that I am missing.

 

[my_2cents]

That’s interesting. What is it about Harris that you think will appeal to Democratic voters in the primaries, and all voters in the general?

I think she stands the best chance of attracting support from other candidates once they drop out because of where she is aligning herself in the party and her stances on the issues. She is also very personable and well-liked among Democrats. She is acceptable to the different factions within the party, which goes back to where she is positioning herself.

As for the general election, again, her positions, personality, presence, and ability to draw support from different areas. She will obtain support levels very similar to what Obama did. She is currently beating Trump too, +8 in the Quinnipiac poll for example.

And honestly Ponca, I don't expect you to see why she could be elected. You disagree with her politically. Your assessment of her is lacking and reminds me of what conservatives said about Obama in 2008. The fact that you think it hurts her that she is advocating bringing charges on Trump illustrates how skewed your assessment is.

btw, I think Harris is also a strong possibility for the Veep spot too. She would help balance many a ticket (which again, goes back to how she aligning herself in the party).

 

[CBradSmith]

Not true, and Trump's own response the other day illustrates that he is paying attention to the polls. Especially his internals, which he demanded not be leaked or talked about.

Trump is in trouble for 2020. There is no doubt about that. Still, you are right, we are still 17 months out. But I think there is and will remain a ceiling for the amount of support Trump can garner and that is a minority percentage.

Good Lord this is laughable.

 

[Ponca Dan]

I think she stands the best chance of attracting support from other candidates once they drop out because of where she is aligning herself in the party and her stances on the issues. She is also very personable and well-liked among Democrats. She is also acceptable to the different factions within the party, which goes back to where she is positioning herself.

As for the general election, again, her positions, personality, presence, and ability to draw support from different areas. She will obtain support levels very similar to what Obama did. She is currently beating Trump too, +8 in the Quinnipiac poll got example.

And honestly Ponca, I don't expect you to see why she could be elected. You disagree with her politically. Your assessment of her is lacking and reminds me of what conservatives said about Obama in 2008. The fact that you think it hurts her that she is advocating bringing charges on Trump illustrates how skewed your assessment is.

btw, I think Harris is also a strong possibility for the Veep spot too.

Yeah, I can see her getting a VP spot. She would tick off a lot of boxes important to today's Democrats: black, a woman, married to a white guy (diversity!), super, super liberal, in a constant race with Booker, Beto, Warren and others to see which one can go the furthest to the left. I understand the common tactic for Democrats is "go left" for the primaries, and bring it back to the middle for the general. I'm not sure that's a winning strategy in today's world. There are too many Facebook posts of her making a fool of herself, too many instances of her being too authoritarian in her statements, and Trump will ram those down her throat nonstop.

You're right, I'm not a Democrat, certainly not a leftist, and most certainly I oppose all attempts at socialism. But neither am I a Republican, and my distaste for Trump is well known on this board (ask anyone!). I don't see any of the Democrats having a snowballs chance against Trump. My obvious - and very public - preference is for Tulsi Gabbard. From my perspective she is the only one that could come close (but not close enough). Of course she is so low on the polls you love as to be nonexistent. More's the pity.

 

[my_2cents]

There are too many Facebook posts of her making a fool of herself, too many instances of her being too authoritarian in her statements, and Trump will ram those down her throat nonstop.

There are Facebook posts about every candidate, including Trump. If you don't like a candidate, you can find whatever you want on Facebook. There are also favorable posts as well.

Authoritarian quotes the Trump will use? What, his own quotes?? lol, come on Ponca.

I don't see any of the Democrats having a snowballs chance against Trump.

I completely disagree but we will see. I think most of those running could beat Trump. He would have a better chance against certain ones over others, I'll give you that. But Biden, Harris, and Sanders would all beat him.

 

[osu_orangestreak]

Here is a variable to look out for.

Amash may run as a libertarian. He won his Michigan district by 34,000 votes.

Trump won Michigan by a total 10,000 votes.

In that one state he could severely damage Trumps change of winning.

 

[CBradSmith]

Here is a variable to look out for.

Amash may run as a libertarian. He won his Michigan district by 34,000 votes.

Trump won Michigan by a total 10,000 votes.

In that one state he could severely damage Trumps change of winning.

Enter John James.

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

Does America wish to return to economic stagnation? Is Blexit for real? My paternal black American school teacher auntie once told me the Africans would one day catch on to the plantation crackers' mountain of empty promises. We'll see.

 

[Ponca Dan]

There are Facebook posts about every candidate, including Trump. If you don't like a candidate, you can find whatever you want on Facebook. There are also favorable posts as well.

Authoritarian quotes the Trump will use? What, his own quotes?? lol, come on Ponca.



I completely disagree but we will see. I think most of those running could beat Trump. He would have a better chance against certain ones over others, I'll give you that. But Biden, Harris, and Sanders would all beat him.

The difference is Trump’s authoritarianism is well known, has played out in the MSM every day since he was inaugurated, and it has been dismissed by a huge swath of the public. They see him as the antiestablishment guy, the human embodiment of what they have been hoping for for decades. I sometimes think many of them would be fine with him becoming a “dictator for life.”

He is a known quantity, Harris is not. He’s already been hammered on a daily basis, a huge Democratic mistake IMO, because it has just become white noise to most people. They simply don’t listen to it anymore. Harris, on the other hand, is mostly unknown.

Trump’s infidelities are, in the famous phrase perfected by the Clintons, “old news.” The public is mostly unaware Harris slept her way to the top. Trump’s brusque and insulting manner suits him, and is adored by a big chunk of voters. But it’s a style suited for s man. As a woman it will look unbecoming to many people if she decides to fight insult with insult. (That’s a sexist observation, I recognize. But I believe it to be pertinent.)

While I have never thought Trump is particularly intelligent, one must admit his skills at deviousness are only surpassed by the Clintons. Harris appears to me to be less than average in intelligence, and it shows in many of her public appearances. Trump will obliterate her with his tweets and tv and radio ads. I think Trump would beat Harris in a landslide. (But that’s just me. I think he will beat any of them in a landslide. The Democratic candidate field this year looks truly like a JV squad.)

 

[2012Bearcat]

I got the second polling call in my life a couple of weeks ago. They didn't say who they were with but were asking questions about my opinion on Trump. All of my answers were negative towards Trump but at this point I'm voting for Trump.

 

[my_2cents]

The difference is Trump’s authoritarianism is well known

Exactly, so him trying to attack someone else for supposed authoritarianism will be dismissed with laughter by about 54% of Americans.

Yes, his supporters (and enablers such as yourself) will eat it up. But they aren't going to vote for Harris or any Democrat anyway.

He is a known quantity, Harris is not.

Which is a positive for Harris, and not Trump. Americans know Trump and a majority don't like him and don't want him to be reelected. Time to wake up to reality Ponca!

I also think this could help Harris in the nomination battle because she is a fresh younger face whom some Democrats say they want. Then again, Biden is painting himself as the successor to Obama as means to blunt that desire among some Democrats. Which is why I think Biden has a good chance at the nomination too.

btw, I have no doubt Trump will seek to define Harris (or whoever is the Democratic nominee), and it will be up to the nominee to rebut that. Trump though is known this time. He won't have the benefit of the unknown or newness as he did in 2016.

The public is mostly unaware Harris slept her way to the top.

Come on Ponca, tell me you are better than this nonsense. Beside the fact that this line of political attack on Harris has a sexist overtone, it isn't going to work. Especially if it comes from Trump, the sexual assaulter himself. He will just drive more women voters away from him (and he already has a serious problem with women voters).

Harris appears to me to be less than average in intelligence, and it shows in many of her public appearances. Trump will obliterate her with his tweets and tv and radio ads. I think Trump would beat Harris in a landslide. (But that’s just me. I think he will beat any of them in a landslide. The Democratic candidate field this year looks truly like a JV squad.)

I am sorry but you are just showing your ignorance when it comes to Kamala Harris. Harris is one tough customer and a skilled communicator. She is also very intelligent. I hope we get the chance to see Harris debate Trump. She will absolutely destroy him. It will be classic. But go ahead and underestimate her all you want. If you knew anything about her, you'd know that is exactly what she counts on.

And Trump isn't beating anyone by a landslide lol. If you truly believe that, you are in for a rude awakening.

 

[Ponca Dan]

Exactly, so him trying to attack someone else for supposed authoritarianism will be dismissed with laughter by about 54% of Americans.

Yes, his supporters (and enablers such as yourself) will eat it up. But they aren't going to vote for Harris or any Democrat anyway.



Which is a positive for Harris, and not Trump. Americans know Trump and a majority don't like him and don't want him to be reelected. Time to wake up to reality Ponca!

I also think this could help Harris in the nomination battle because she is a fresh younger face whom some Democrats say they want. Then again, Biden is painting himself as the successor to Obama as means to blunt that desire among some Democrats. Which is why I think Biden has a good chance at the nomination too.

btw, I have no doubt Trump will seek to define Harris (or whoever is the Democratic nominee), and it will be up to the nominee to rebut that. Trump though is known this time. He won't have the benefit of the unknown or newness as he did in 2016.



Come on Ponca, tell me you are better than this nonsense. Beside the fact that this line of political attack on Harris has a sexist overtone, it isn't going to work. Especially if it comes from Trump, the sexual assaulter himself. He will just drive more women voters away from him (and he already has a serious problem with women voters).



I am sorry but you are just showing your ignorance when it comes to Kamala Harris. Harris is one tough customer and a skilled communicator. She is also very intelligent. I hope we get the chance to see Harris debate Trump. She will absolutely destroy him. It will be classic. But go ahead and underestimate her all you want. If you knew anything about her, you'd know that is exactly what she counts on.

And Trump isn't beating anyone by a landslide lol. If you truly believe that, you are in for a rude awakening.

I'm happy to give you the last word in this conversation. I guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out. The only remark you made with which I take extreme umbrage is your calling me a Trump enabler. You could not have insulted me any worse. I believe I am owed an apology.

 

[my_2cents]

The only remark you made with which I take extreme umbrage is your calling me a Trump enabler. You could not have insulted me any worse. I believe I am owed an apology.

Truth hurts sometimes.

Who do you think is going to win the Democratic nomination Ponca? Like I've posted, I think it will either be Biden or Harris, with Sanders having a shot too. Part of me thinks a dark horse candidate could emerge, but with how large the field is, I'm not sure that is a real possibility.

 

[CBradSmith]

I'm happy to give you the last word in this conversation. I guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out. The only remark you made with which I take extreme umbrage is your calling me a Trump enabler. You could not have insulted me any worse. I believe I am owed an apology.

You're a patient man.

Ask him how, in quantifiable metrics, you enable Trump. I'd like to see that.

 

[OSU_Orlando]

Most individuals won't look at the Sampling information but for those interested here it is:

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us06112019_demos_urox72.pdf/

Curious based on their sampling data and how much they "weighted" responses by those who identified as Independent.

What they don't ask when identifying individuals in these polls is ideology and instead of party affiliation. The poll doesn't provide any baseline questions to set the stage for the responses that dig into opinions on current events and go straight into 1 vs 1 choices in a Presidential Election. Or...it looks like they have left out information or a question that was asked to only Democrat or Democrat Leaning samples because it goes into detail if they would consider themselves as Very Liberal, Somewhat Liberal, Moderate. What's the deal with that?

Another very odd number that calls into question the overall candidate pool of the Democrat side - In about a month of time, the number of people interested in the Presidential Campaign dropped 7% in the "A Lot" category of are you paying attention. Are the candidates lacking pizzaz?

Based on the sampling data used alone, and making assumptions that each "voter" polled voted down party lines the percentages that each Dem candidate would need to secure from the "Independent" and NA sections to meet the percentage the overall poll came up would be close to 50%... that's pretty insane with the stances that some have taken on the campaign trail.

 

[CBradSmith]

Most individuals won't look at the Sampling information but for those interested here it is:

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us06112019_demos_urox72.pdf/

Curious based on their sampling data and how much they "weighted" responses by those who identified as Independent.

What they don't ask when identifying individuals in these polls is ideology and instead of party affiliation. The poll doesn't provide any baseline questions to set the stage for the responses that dig into opinions on current events and go straight into 1 vs 1 choices in a Presidential Election. Or...it looks like they have left out information or a question that was asked to only Democrat or Democrat Leaning samples because it goes into detail if they would consider themselves as Very Liberal, Somewhat Liberal, Moderate. What's the deal with that?

Another very odd number that calls into question the overall candidate pool of the Democrat side - In about a month of time, the number of people interested in the Presidential Campaign dropped 7% in the "A Lot" category of are you paying attention. Are the candidates lacking pizzaz?

Based on the sampling data used alone, and making assumptions that each "voter" polled voted down party lines the percentages that each Dem candidate would need to secure from the "Independent" and NA sections to meet the percentage the overall poll came up would be close to 50%... that's pretty insane with the stances that some have taken on the campaign trail.

Gobblers like to gobble.