16 predictions for Big 12 football, including a surprise champion
- Aug 14, 2024 Updated 4 hrs ago
Berry Tramel
Sports ColumnistThe 2020 Big 12 Championship game matched teams ranked first (OU) and fourth (Iowa State) in the preseason media poll. Not bad prognostications.
The 2021 game matched teams ranked fourth (OSU) and Baylor (eighth). Uh, what’s going on? In 2022, it was fifth (Kansas State) and seventh (Texas Christian). 2023, first (Texas) and seventh (OSU).
A league with as much status quo as any suddenly went haywire. In the old days, just pick OU or Texas, then sort out the rest, and you were on the green. Then the Longhorns cratered, eventually the Sooners slipped and even before they absconded to the Southeastern Conference, the Big 12 was an anything-could-happen league. Now it’s pin the tail on the donkey realignment. Any pick could land in a bunker.
Now comes the 16-team Big 12, with eight members that weren’t in the conference 13½ months ago. Who can predict a league like this?
The preseason poll settled on newcomer Utah to win the league, in a tight vote over Kansas State and OSU. Does that mean we’re headed for a Texas Tech-West Virginia showdown in Arlington the first week of December?
Who knows? Predictions are dangerous. But they also are fun. So as we count down to the August 24 college football opener, let’s celebrate the advent of the 16-team Big 12 with 16 (serious) predictions for the 2024 season.
1. The Big 12 goes splat in non-conference.
The Big 12’s strong scheduling, not just with solid power-conference opponents but with mid-major rattlesnakes that can ruin your day, makes the conference vulnerable. Nebraska beats Colorado. Penn State beats West Virginia. Iowa beats Iowa State. Southern Methodist beats Texas Christian and Brigham Young. Wyoming beats Arizona State and BYU. Nevada-Las Vegas beats Houston. Air Force beats Baylor.2. Central Florida quarterback K.J. Jefferson has a monster game as the Knights win at TCU on September 14 and stamp themselves as conference contenders.
Jefferson goes on to win Big 12 offensive player of the year, in a close vote over OSU tailback Ollie Gordon.3. OSU splits with Utah and Kansas State to cap off a loaded Big 12 September.
The Cowboys beat the Utes in Stillwater, with Gordon showing his wares with 154 rushing yards. But OSU falls at K-State the next week, leaving the Cowboys closely bunched with the Big 12 pack.
4. Brigham Young loses to SMU and Wyoming in back-to-back September road games and never recovers.
BYU beats only Houston in the Big 12, finishes 2-10 overall and fires beloved coach Kalani Sitake.
5. Willie Fritz’s first season at Houston does not go well.
The Cougars go 0-9 in the Big 12 and finish 1-11, beating only crosstown rival Rice.
6. Baylor loses a non-conference game to Utah (that’s right, non-conference).
Things don’t improve in the league, where Baylor beats only BYU and Houston. The Bears finish 3-9, and coach Dave Aranda is fired.7. Colorado upsets Kansas State on October 12, giving the Buffaloes a 4-2 record and hope for a breakout season.
But Colorado wins just once the rest of the season, finishes 5-7 and Deion Sanders announces his resignation.
8. Iowa State, a team almost as experienced as OSU, makes a hearty run at the Big 12 Championship Game.
The Cyclones go into the final two Saturdays with a 5-2 league record, with games remaining at Utah and home against K-State. Iowa State loses to the Utes, then knocks KSU out of contention.9. TCU doesn’t rekindle the magic of 2022.
But, the Horned Frogs are quite competitive under quarterback Josh Hoover. They upset Arizona in Fort Worth on November 23 and eventually finish 5-4 in the league, 7-5 overall.10. Kansas defensive back Cobee Bryant leads the Jayhawks to a 10-2 season and is named Big 12 defensive player of the year.
11. Needing a victory to finish 8-1 in the conference and secure a berth in Arlington, OSU routs Colorado on Thanksgiving Friday in Boulder.
Gordon rushes for 223 yards in Deion’s final game in the Flatirons.12. UCF upsets Utah on Thanksgiving Friday in Orlando to forge a tie in the standings at 7-2 for both schools.
Kansas makes it a three-way tie the next day, and UCF wins the tiebreaker to reach Arlington.13. Against the Big 12’s toughest schedule, West Virginia gets off to a 6-2 league start
...and plays at Texas Tech in the regular-season finale with a chance to forge a four-way tie for second place and wreak havoc on the conference tiebreakers. But the Red Raiders beat the Mountaineers, giving both teams an 8-4 overall record.
14. UCF upsets OSU in the Big 12 Championship Game, becoming the fifth school to win the conference title in the last five years.
The Knights shut down Gordon much like they did last season, and Jefferson makes enough plays to give UCF a 28-23 victory in front of a healthy crowd of 55,000 at AT&T Stadium.15. Since the Alamo Bowl remains tied not just to the Big 12, but also to the former members of the Pac-12, Utah is selected to play Kansas.
They did not meet in the regular season. Utah beats the Jayhawks and finishes 11-2. Counting Utah’s non-conference game against Baylor in September, the Utes play 11 games against Big 12 foes.
16. The Big 12 surprisingly gets two teams in the 12-team College Football Playoff.
UCF, 11-2, is seeded fourth, and 11-2 OSU is seeded 11th. The Cowboys lose a first-round game at Texas, and the Knights lose a Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal to Oregon.That sounds about right for this crazy conference, don’t you think?
