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🇺🇸Nov 5, 2024: Trump vs Kamala🇺🇸

Florida has 1.055M more registered Rs than Ds. The takeaway here is that R's are currently outperforming their registration more than D's are. Same story in Virginia, Nevada, and Arizona. Now maybe the indies in those 'swing' states are really closet Ds, but the evidence is clearly that Reps are, thus far, doing a better job turning out their own party's voters.
This election, is the first one in a long time where there are more registered Republicans than Democrats.
 
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To be fair and balanced, the flip side to this tweet is that in 2022, Florida looked like a Red Wave was coming to wash the nation, and yet somehow that wave died out at the Florida border.
You do have other states like AZ and NV providing some early hope that won't happen again.
 
Honest question about Polymarket: Are their odds based more on their expectation of the election results, or to balance the money on both sides to hedge their risk?
I’m not sure tbh. We will see how accurate they are tonight
 
This is why I asked about methodology. If I truly thought the election was hair-trigger close, then getting either candidate at +130 or so would be a good bet which would shift the odds back to the center.
More so watching Bovada and PredictIt
 
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