🇺🇸Nov 5, 2024: Trump vs Kamala🇺🇸
- Thread starter tlwwake
- Start date
Not that the Other doesn't matter, but to offset the Rep vs Dem advantage, it would have to swing nearly 2to1 (about 30 points) for Kamala.
And just saw that they’re extending the hours to vote two hours in this county.
Based on the NVSOS site, Reps have a 49K advantage over Dems. With 370K Indie votes in, Dems would have to carry Indies by +13 at the current vote levels. Given 40K of the Indies are rurals (say Trump wins +10K or 60-40) and another 70K is Washoe which will probably be a wash. So Dems really need to have the 270K Indie votes in Clark county to overcome a nearly 60K edge for Reps. That would require Harris winning them by 22 points. Given Dems are only beating Reps by +8 in Clark right now, a +22 requirement for indies would seem to be a serious stretch.
Such is election day. One tweet says Philly precincts are ghost towns and the next says they're going to be 150% of 2020.
I question this. Not because its pro-Dem, but it either intentionally vague (meaning 150% increase in ED voting vs. 2020 when Dems voted overwhelmingly by mail) or questionably unrealistic. In 2020, Philadelphia county had over 700K votes in total. Early vote totals reported for Philadelphia County (per the UF guy) was 178K votes. Just to hit 100% of 2020 turnout, they'd need almost 550K votes cast today and 150% (as reported) would require nearly 800K election day votes. The lines would be wrapped up and down the city blocks, and there's zero stories of that in Philly.
I think it depends on the source. Democrats will slant their way and Republicans will slant the other.
They're probably including the ballots they have in a warehouse waiting to be used if needed.
I think its comparing Election Day turnout vs. Election Day turnout in 2020. Given that Philadelphia returned 371K ballots in 2020 and only 178K ballots in 2024, Dems better hope that election day turnout is up 150%. If its not, then Penn won't even be close.
Kamala will have to carry Clark County Indies by +20 for it to be close. The interesting question from this is what the down ballot impact is. That could put a very unexpected Senate seat into play.
