Oklahoma State's defense played a fantastic game against Baylor this year. They shut the offense down without the benefit of getting any turnovers and with the burden of the offense giving them three! I would have to think that Baylor will be better this time around, but there simply was not much on the game film for them to build on. As a result, I expect more deep shots, misdirection, and gimmicks from Baylor. I would include QB run game, but I don't think they will want to expose Bohanon to extra shots and that is not playing to Shapen's strengths. Let me throw out a few stats from that game.
1) OSU gave up only 3 3rd down conversions, all of them were QB runs, and two of those were scrambles. The other was a QB sneak from the 1 yard line.
2) Apart from a 4th down run by Abram Smith that broke for a 55 yard touchdown, the Cowboys held Baylor to 52 rushing yards on 28 carries! That is less than 2 yards per carry. The 4th down run was well blocked, but our secondary pursuit ran into the back of Converse Judson so he was just knocked out of the gap.
3) The Cowboys gave up 3 big passes of 43, 40, and 37 yards. Apart from those plays, they only gave up 10 of 24 passing for 53 yards. Basically, the Cowboys gave up yardage on three pass plays.
Against the Bears' wide zone run game, it is important to get interior penetration to mess up the timing and change the depth of the running back without losing gap integrity. The Cowboys were able to consistently get upfield against the Baylor line and get the backs shoulders turned sideways to prevent the quick 1-cut into the creases that the zone scheme relies upon. The edge defenders were able to keep things from bouncing wide, and the run fits by the back seven were disciplined.
Baylor's game plan early hinted at the fact that they expected the Cowboy run defense to be stout, and they tried to push the ball deep down the field to hit big plays and to open up the run game. They had mixed success, but after watching game film, I am positive that they feel like they did not go deep often enough. Going vertical on early downs or in short yardage to go situations is more likely to catch the Cowboys in favorable defensive calls. Baylor does not want to deal with the Cowboy pressure on obvious passing downs while waiting for deeper, longer developing routes to open up. They will also have to go back to the drawing board in figuring how to attack our 3rd down defense when we drop 4 or guys at the sticks. The Bears have been solid in pass protection most of the year, but they struggled some against the Cowboys, particularly with Collin Oliver's speed off the edge. Their offense was never in a rhythm.
Things could change some depending on who they play at quarterback. Gerry Bohanon's strength in the passing game comes from play-action, boots, and waggles when he gets out of the pocket. With a bum hamstring, I am not sure how effective he would be throwing on the move. He has a strong arm, but when simply dropping back as a pocket passer, he is better utilized as a game manager. He identifies holes in zone coverages and can get the ball out on time. On the other hand, he doesn't have the intermediate and deep ball accuracy to make throws into tight windows against man coverage with high efficiency. Blake Shapen is totally different. Coming from Shreveport Evangel, he is very comfortable in the pocket and has the ability to make all the throws down the field against man. His deep ball throws are more accurate. The problem is that he has not developed the ability to read zone coverages well and will make several ill-advised choices against zones. He is athletic enough to make plays with his feet, but he is not nearly as natural on the boot action and is not someone who provides a true dual threat for the offense. He could very well struggle on obvious passing downs against the Cowboys if they mix up coverages and fronts to create confusion and hesitation.
In their first drive in Stillwater (2nd and 3 from the 17 yard line) the Bears hit Estrada on a go-route as an inside receiver lined up to the boundary in a 2 by 2 set. They caught the Cowboys being loose in their zone coverage. Bohanon could have thrown short, but the read was obvious a hi-low read and he went deep. Harvell Peel drifted a bit too far to the middle of the field to get back to the receiver in time to break up the pass. Bernard-Converse was in position underneath, but Bohannon threw a good ball to lead the receiver. The play went for 37 yards. On the very next snap, they tried to throw deep again, but to the single receiver side, but it was well-covered. Pressure forced a hurried throw out of bounds. In the second quarter, on 1st and 10 from their own 5 yard line, the Bears hit Estrada on a go route on the left sideline again versus zone coverage for 40 yards. The ball was underthrown or it could have gone for more yards. Their successful deep throws were made when the Cowboys were playing run.
Coming out of halftime, they went empty and got in a couple QB runs before going vertical again on first down to a post route by Thornton. The receiver was open, but because the ball was underthrown, Bernard-Converse got there in time to break it up. The Cowboys started using more man-free coverages on early downs, and the next time Baylor went deep, Taylor got over in time to pick off the throw. The bad news is that a penalty wiped out the play (delay of game penalty actually worked out for the offense). A few plays later, after Smith had two effective runs, Baylor went play action with a deep post to Thornton against Bernard-Converse for 44 yards. After the help of a PI, Baylor would eventually punch it in on a QB sneak.
Baylor doesn't actually run that many different plays, but they run the same base plays from multiple formations and in a variety of ways. Taking away the run game is critical, because they don't have the variety in the drop-back passing game to win games without the balance from the run-game.
I will say that Baylor is among the national leaders in the amount of misdirection utilized. Eye-discipline defensively is extremely important when playing them. The one thing that could have really helped their offense take the next step would have been a greater involvement of the quarterback run game.
It is obvious on film that throwing to backs is a great way to attack this defense. Baylor had some success doing that, but after watching more tape on our defense, I would suspect a lot more underneath and wheel routes thrown to Ebner and a greater involvement of the Tight Ends. These throws are effective, somewhat lower risk, and bring the added bonus of keeping the Cowboy linebackers from delayed blitzes when those players stay in for pass protection. Should Gerry Bohanon be the quarterback on Saturday, Coach Grimes has a tough decision in whether or not to keep extra protectors in (which draws more linebacker pressures) or flood the pattern with more receivers which reduces the number of rushers.
Baylor had some creativity in that first game offensively, but the well crafted plays just did not hit early. The first time Bohanon went under center, they ran the jet sweep to the C-gap. It could have hit for a big gain, but Collin Olliver made a great play to tackle Estrada for a loss. Baylor may have to resort to running several new schemed up special plays to jump start their offense if the Cowboys play at the same level they did last time. Expect the Bears to go for several 4th downs if they are less than 5 yards and to pass up field goal opportunities to go for it in the red zone. They will be playing to score seven.
The Baylor offensive staff has a stiff challenge facing them this week.
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