People have been messaging me since Saturday wanting to know my thoughts on how the college football selection will go down. I figured that several on here may be interested as well, so I will discuss it in this thread.

Disclaimers--

1) There is no way to predict how the dynamics will play out in that room when the final rankings are compiled, but there are things that are indicators and things from which you can draw insight.

2) Until the games are played on Saturday, there are far too many possible combinations to summarize them in one succinct paragraph. I will play out a couple of options on games, but not all.

THINGS TO CONSIDER--

1) Why did the committee move Oklahoma State ahead of Notre Dame? The answer here as well as what contributed to it, are important. I have reason to believe that there is more to this than just the bedlam performance.

This committee has repeatedly talked about the value of conference championships and top 25 wins. Notre Dame does not have either. (There are some that do not like Notre Dame clinging to independence and getting a free pass for consideration while avoiding a championship game against a ranked team at the end of the season.) When Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma, the Cowboys secured their second ranked win as well as positioned themselves to be a 1-loss power five conference champion.

Secondarily, when Cincinnati beat East Carolina, they collected their 12th win, assuring them of being no worse than a 1-loss team with the opportunity of being a conference champion, although not Power 5.

The committee knew that they could not put Notre Dame in over an undefeated Cincinnati since the Bearcats beat them handily in South Bend. If only 1 of those two teams got into the field, it would be an undefeated Cincinnati.

The committee also knew that they could not take both Cincinnati and Notre Dame, because that would mean that at least 3 of the Power 5 Conference champions would not make the playoffs. There are certain scenarios where you could have 4 of the 5 not making it in. Fore example: if Alabama beat Georgia, Baylor beat OSU, Cincinnati beat Houston, and Iowa beat Michigan. Leaving Notre Dame at 4 would produce a field of Georgia, Alabama, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame. That will not be allowed to happen. That is why Notre Dame had to drop below Oklahoma State.

With the Playoff Expansion meetings failing to produce an agreement by December 1, there is no way this committee will allow all power 5 conferences but the SEC to be omitted, and they really don't want all but 2 left out either.

Brian Kelly leaving provides cover for the committee in their final rankings to use it to justify moving down Notre Dame, but they hopefully will not need it. If necessary, Oregon or Baylor could leap frog them into the top 4 if enough chaos happens.

2) What has this committee publicly said that they value after each rankings release? (There are seven new members this year, so don't expect it to function like previous years.) Go back and look at Gary Barta's comments each week and you can pull together some common themes.

a. They look at each team's resume: won-loss record, strength of schedule, head to head, results against common opponents, and each members perception of how those teams are actually playing.

b. This group has focused more on quality wins than bad losses. Oregon was really rewarded for their win against Ohio State despite a bad loss. Mississippi State debuted at #17 with a 5-3 record because they had 3 impressive wins over teams that the committee liked.

NOTE: This is where Cincinnati could have trouble at the final ranking meeting. Go back and read their comments each week about the poor schedule. The comments were not just about the results, but the Bearcats not controlling the game. In week one, Barta was asked a question of how the committee felt philosphically about a team going undefeated and not making it into the top 10. His answer: "...Record is one piece of the puzzle for sure, but as I mentioned at the opening, strength of schedule, who you play, who you beat, head-to-head, common opponents. At the end of the day whether somebody is undefeated or has one or two losses, we haven’t talked about philosophically as a committee. We really haven’t gone there."--Of course that was easy to say in week one of the rankings because you did not yet have an undefeated team in the possible position to be left out, but the groundwork has been laid to do such a thing.

c. This group discusses statistics and focuses on advanced metrics that help them get a sense of 'game control' that they put with "how the games look to them when they watch them". This is why they were so low on Oklahoma even when the Sooners were undefeated at 9-0 but ranked 8th.

NOTE: This was seen in the defense of having OSU at 9 with OU 13 when they had the same records during the third ranking release: "Oklahoma State’s defense, the committee thinks very highly of the way they’ve been playing defense, some of the best defense this year. They beat Baylor, and so that certainly resonates with the committee. And then as of late offensively, Oklahoma State has been playing much better the last several weeks.

Later he said this: "as a committee what we’ll do each week is just come back and compare Oklahoma State, who they beat or who they lost to and then compare it to the people around them."--The ground work was laid out a long time ago for continually moving OSU up the rankings. If OSU's defense plays well against Baylor and we control the game, I think there is very little chance OSU will not be top 4 regardless of other results.

SCENARIOS (all assume OSU beats Baylor & teams listed are the winners. OSU will not make it in with 2 losses.):

1) If any of Georgia, Iowa, or Houston win, Oklahoma State is in regardless of what else happens. OSU will probably be seeded 3rd, but could be as high as 2nd.

2) WORST CASE: Alabama, Michigan, and Cincinnati win-->Most likely OSU gets in with the committee deciding between Georgia and Cincinnati. Based on data and committee statements, a clean game by OSU has a 90%+ chance of getting in with this worst case scenario. OSU would likely be 3rd in this scenario if Cincinnati got in over Georgia. If both Georgia and Alabama got in, I would suspect that they would not have them play each other so the seedings could be manipulated.

Hope that helps.

'Wouldn't miss it for the world': Being there shows love of parents for Oklahoma State lineman Josh Sills​

Jacob Unruh
Oklahoman

STILLWATER — For the better part of the past three months, John and Kim Sills’ lives have been in a suitcase.

They repack each Thursday and hit the roads of southeast Ohio in their black 2013 Nissan Altima. The destination: a Big 12 town.

“Oh, we rack up the miles on the vehicle,” John said with a hearty laugh. “Let me tell you.”

Try more than 232,000 miles on the dependable mid-size car.

Trips of roughly 2,100 miles to Stillwater — where their son, Josh Sills, has played left guard for Oklahoma State the past two seasons after transferring from West Virginia — add up quickly.

They’ve flown to three games, but they’ve driven to 45 others. They’ve been to conference games, non-conference games and bowl games over six seasons.

The family has no idea how many miles to be exact.



“I think if I saw it in black, I’d probably have a heart attack,” Kim said.

In that span, the Sills have missed just one game that Josh has played, either with West Virginia or OSU.

“We’re just along for the ride, living his dream with him,” John said.

Josh is the stabilizer for the OSU offensive line, giving quarterback Spencer Sanders the time he so needs and opening the holes for running back Jaylen Warren and Co. Thursday, Josh was honored as an All-Big 12 first-team selection, too.

And as the fifth-ranked Cowboys prepare to face ninth-ranked Baylor in Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game, there might not be a better story about love and dedication. John and Kim will make the 18-hour drive, beginning Thursday evening from their home outside Sarahsville, Ohio. They’ll rotate driving and arrive in Arlington, Texas, early Friday.

They will spend little time with Josh. But the brief visits are meaningful.

“It’s huge,” Josh said earlier this week while fighting back emotions. “I don’t really know how to explain it. There’s not enough words to describe what that means to me, just the love, willingness, caringness and compassion that they have is unreal.”

The 6-foot-6, 325-pound redshirt senior with a bald head and bushy beard paused to gather his thoughts.

“Yeah, it means a lot to me.”

Saturday will be Josh’s 50th collegiate game and 46th start. It’ll be the biggest game to date in his career.

But win or lose, it’ll mean the most to see his parents afterward.

“I soak it in as much as I can, cherish it as much as I can, because it’s genuine,” Josh said.

Next level​

John and Kim were thrilled when Josh picked West Virginia.

Since he had started playing football when he was 9, they hadn’t missed a game. John was his first coach.

He went back to being just a dad when Josh entered Meadowbrook High in Byesville, Ohio. The high school is located in a large village 15 miles from Sarahsville, a no-stop-light town with less than 200 people on the 2010 census that is Josh’s hometown.

Josh started to quickly grow and grab attention from recruiters in an area not known to produce Power 5 football players.

“We always just kept talking with him and our verbiage was always next level,” Kim said. “We knew he had physical measurables, but we didn’t know if he would get an offer, because no one comes in our area of our state looking for Division-I athletes.

“So, it’s been a really cool experience.”

Morgantown was an easy drive, too, just 2 hours from Sarahsville.


The family could keep their commitment alive. They went to every game — even flying to games at Texas and Texas Tech.

“I think it really does matter at the end of the day,” Kim said. “When you see how hard your kid works, you do what you have to do, knowing they want you there and you want to be there.

“So, you do what you have to do to make it happen.”

Even when your kid transfers to OSU, like Josh did ahead of the 2020 season.

“It wasn’t a hard decision for me because I knew what I wanted to do with school and that kind of thing,” Sills said. “I knew that my mom and dad didn’t care where I went to school, and they made that evident from Day 1.

“They wanted to go wherever I wanted to go.”

And they have.

A 2-hour drive for home games became a 14-hour, overnight adventure.

Josh said Kim — an X-ray tech — picked up a second job to help with travel expenses. She reworked her schedule and so did John, who remanufactures diesel engines.

“Love it,” John said. “Wouldn’t miss it for the world.”

‘All I’ve ever really had is my family’​

Two weeks ago, Josh was convinced he wasn’t going to play at Texas Tech. He was recovering from a foot injury and was only suiting up for emergency purposes.

And Lubbock, Texas, is the farthest Big 12 trip for the Sills family.

So, he told his parents to stay home.

“It sucked,” Josh said.

It got even worse when Tyrese Williams suffered an injury. Josh was forced into action.

John and Kim were shocked when they saw Josh in the game on TV. Kim ultimately broke down in tears on the phone with Josh after the win.

“I’m one of those droopy mammas,” she said. “I try not to be, but in that moment, I was.”

Each week, the family enjoys breakfast together on Friday. The Sills get maybe an hour together in the team hotel that night. They spend around 20 minutes talking and hugging after the games before John and Kim hit the road.

And they all missed that chance for the first time.

“I know how much it means for them to be there,” Josh said. “So, it hurt me for them, especially when I called my mom after the game. She was crying, of course my dad and all that stuff, and then I teared up, too.

“But I wasn’t mad, I wasn’t upset, I wasn’t sad or anything like that. I was just hurt because I knew they hurt because they weren’t there.

“I’m glad we won, but it was kind of a s----y feeling.”




That’s why Josh loved the postgame celebration on the field following last Saturday’s comeback win over OU on Senior Night. Thousands of fans stormed the field. But he got to hug his mom and dad along with his older sister, Nicole Johnson, who has moved to Florida with her husband and two young children.

His parents now refuse to miss another game. It hurt too much the last time.

And it’s important to be there for Josh.

For the Sills family, there is no better display of love.

“All I’ve ever really had is my family and they’ve been there” Josh said. “They’re my biggest supporters. I know that at the end of the day, I can look up in the stands and no matter what, I’ll see my dad, I’ll see my mom, my sister, my brother-in-law, my niece and my nephew.

“No matter what the outcome is, no matter how I play, no matter how bad I play or anything like that, they’re always going to have a smile on their face. That just gives me the reassurance that everything’s all right, it’s fine. I got everything in the world I need sitting right there looking at me going, ‘You know what, I’m proud of him.’

“That’s what means the most to me.”

'That’s where it starts': Oklahoma State's defense has shown its age this season and that's a great thing​

Scott Wright
Oklahoman

ARLINGTON, Texas — Tanner McCalister laughed at the idea, but he couldn’t disagree.

The Oklahoma State safety is one of the youngest starters on the Cowboy defense.

He’s a fourth-year senior and will turn 22 in January.

Yet only three defensive starters are younger than him — and only by a few months. The youngest starter is cornerback Jarrick Bernard-Converse, who turns 22 next April.

When the Oklahoma State defense takes the field on Saturday in the Big 12 championship game, the average age of the starters will be 21.9 years. That’s older than the starting lineup of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder (21.2).

No. 5 Oklahoma State takes on No. 9 Baylor at 11 a.m. Saturday at AT&T Stadium with the Big 12 title on the line, and age will play a factor.

“The majority of our defense are 22 and 23 years old,” OSU coach Mike Gundy said. “There’s no substitute for age and experience, period. That’s where it starts.”

Six of OSU’s defensive starters are at least 22 years old. Defensive tackle Brendon Evers and linebacker Devin Harper are 23. Cornerback Christian Holmes, born in September of 1997, is 24.

All 11 starters are at least fourth-year juniors, and nine of the 11 are seniors, either in their fourth, fifth or — in the case of Harper and Holmes — sixth year.

The male body shows significant muscle development in the early 20s. And that is particularly true under the watchful eye of Rob Glass in OSU’s strength and conditioning department, along with the nutritionists who provide body-supporting meals for the team.

Age, of course, matters most if those years have been used productively. And for these Cowboys, they have. Nine of the 11 starters have started at least 20 games in their careers, led by linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez with 46 starts and Bernard-Converse with 45. A super-senior, Rodriguez has played in 58 career games.

Fifth-year senior defensive end Brock Martin has 20 career starts and has played in 48 games as a Cowboy.

At 22, he understands better how to use his body, but also how to care for it.

“I’ve had a surgery damn near every offseason,” said Martin, who missed the previous meeting with Baylor this season because of a dislocated elbow. “For most guys, you learn how to take care of your bodies more, how to practice better, how to work on things that hurt — go to treatment. Young guys, they take for granted the treatment room.

“As an older guy, you realize how good it can be for you, how much it can help you.”

“As far as getting the size to be ready to play college football, I’ve been able to do that,” said McCalister, who has 24 starts and 48 games played. “You gotta take care of your body, and each year, I kinda learned that more. The more I was playing, the more reps I was getting, I realized I gotta take care of my body so I can play the whole season.”

On top of just being older, the majority of the defense has been in the OSU system for their entire careers.

Nine of the 11 starters were recruited out of high school by OSU, with only two transfers, Holmes, who is in his second year at OSU, and Israel Antwine, who is in his third. The rest of the starting lineup has been with defensive coordinator Jim Knowles for all of his four-year tenure.

So the players have more experience, and a deeper understanding of the defense they’re running. On top of that, their bodies are further developed than many of their opponents’ bodies.

That maturity — physical and mental — are at the core of OSU’s defensive success this season.

“It’s a big advantage,” Gundy said, “when you’re competing with 23-year-olds instead of 18-year-olds — maturity and experience and age.”

These six guys should get the most minutes for this team at this point in the season.

BWill
AA
RW
KB
TS
KB

convince me I’m wrong

Jotting down some thoughts as I watch this....


Man, Spencer Sanders looked completely different. Not confident and not feeling pressure. Baylor disguising zone led to that first pick in the 1st quarter.

They couldn't stop Tay Martin ( ended up with 6 catches, 110 yards). He really made the difference IMO. Incredle catch towards the end of the 3rd quarter. RGIII: 'He's an NFL type player.'

Gerry Bohanan is a good QB but not nearly as fast or elusive as Caleb Williams. Tyler Lacy, Antwine and Collin Oliver are living in the backfield in the game early.

RB Ebner was getting NOTHING in the first half. It appears our defensive speed is overwhelming for them.

Richardson is running hard in this first half. If he's not fumbling he's a good option to relieve Warren. Do the coaches go to Jackson this weekend after a very bad fumble in Bedlam?

Sanders is getting no time to throw and make his progressions. The OKState offensive line is getting dominated thus far.

I forgot how much of this ESPN broadcast was an RGIII promo ***rolls eyes***

Jaylen Warren is dominating this 1st half. While the Offensive line is not pass blocking well, they are doing a good job in rush blocking.

The play action play/throw from Spencer Sanders to Rashod Owens was damn good. SS put it on the money!!!! This was Rashod Owens first TD as a Cowboy. Feels like we haven't seen Rashod Owens much lately?

14-0 at half. Oklahoma St in complete control despite a SS int and then another near SS int.

Baylor has 6 three-and-outs in the first half.

Baylor hits long pass in the 3rd... punches it in with GB run. 14-17 Cowboys still lead

Baylor finds a little momentum to start 2nd half by running Bohanan..... drive stralls.

14-0 Cowboys 4:00 left in the 3rd Quarter...completely controlling this game on the defensive side of the ball. The Baylor OL is getting dominated.

Baylor goes for it on 4th down and score on long run.... 14-7 Cowboys

SS had a lot of success rushing the ball... 76 yards on the day.

defense really settled in the 2nd half…. Baylor killed some of their own drives with pentalities. Obviously, both teams are different then 2 months ago, but it was fun to watch the defense take over.

big keys after watching this: OL, SS reads, running the ball effectively (similar to all season) but we really need at least a little scoreboard pressure. We got 14 on them and it felt like they really got away from their game plan.

2. Baylor vs Oklahoma State​

LINE Oklahoma State -5.5
ATS PICK Oklahoma State

It’s sort of surprising that this hasn’t gone through the roof to at least 7.5 or higher considering Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon is iffy at best with a hamstring injury.

Oklahoma State won 24-14 the first time around when Bohanon was at quarterback, and now it’s got a spot in the College Football Playoff to play for.

More than that, the defense is about to make amends for the Oklahoma game.

Those guys in the Sooner uniforms were pretty good, too, so there was no shame in giving up 441 yards and 33 points to one of the most dangerous teams in the country. However, that hasn’t been Oklahoma State’s brand this year.

It might not be Georgia or Wisconsin defensively, but it’s certainly not all that far off. It hadn’t allowed more than 375 yards to anyone before dealing with OU, and the one loss came to Iowa State in the only other time the D allowed more than 350.

Baylor’s great running game only came up with 107 yards in the first meeting.

This is a strong Bear team with a tremendous coaching staff – seriously, Dave Aranda should’ve been the new LSU head man – and all the pressure is off.

Oklahoma State won seven of its last nine games by a touchdown or more, and while this will hardly be a blowout, the defense is going to take over as the game goes on.

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Joe Bob Clements son. I’m assuming a PWO

not sure where he will end up....so much potential and so little success.

@Kenny Orange Powers



@southernpoke



@dtspoke

Did Gundy really refuse to say we deserve to be in if we win and even said early in the year was worried about qualifying for a bowl? He probably didn’t say this but just wanted to check?

The NFL suspended Tampa Bay Buccaneers star wide receiver Antonio Brown for three games after he “misrepresented” his vaccination status, two weeks after he was accused by his former chef of procuring a fake vaccination card.

I see ABC has it, are the announcers Blackledge and McDonaugh?

Post your favorite Kermit the Frog Gifs you find on the internet....We need all the Frogs. I died laughing.. @Kenny Orange Powers


Don't Tread on Kermit Bro...

Team list and rankings per Flo: Air Force #38(tied), Appalachian State (tied), Bloomsburg NR, Buffalo NR, Cal State/Bakersfield #44, Chattanooga NR, Cornell #10, Davidson NR, Drexel NR, Duke #30, Gardner Webb NR. Geprge Mason, NR, Little rock NR,Maryland NR, Michigan State NR, Missouri #11, North Carolina #22, North Carolina State #6(tie), North Dakota State #26, Northern Colorado, NR, OK State #4, Rider, NR, S. Dakota ST. #35, Stanford #18, Va. Tecj #6(tie), The Citadel NR.
WEIGHT LIST WITH RANKED WRESTLERS
125 #7 SAM LATONA VT, #8 MASTRO OK ST., #10 JACOB CAMACHO NCST, #17 NOAH SURTIN MO, #20 FABIAN GUITERREZ TN/CHATTANOOGA.
133 #2 DATON FIX OK ST., #4 VITO ARUJAU CORNELL, #5 KORBIN MEYERS VT, #11 CHANCE RICH CS/Bk, #12 MATT SCHMITT MO, #16 MOSHA SCHWARTZ NO CO, #18 JARRETT TROMBLY NC ST., #22 CODI RUSSELL APP ST., #23 JARET VANVLEET AIR FORCE,
141 #7 ANDREW ALIREZ NO CO, #9 ALAN HART MO, #10 CLAY CARLSON SD ST., #12 KIZHAN CLARKE N. CAROLINA, #13 REAL WOODS STANFORD(WHO KNOWS), #20 SAM HILLEGAS VT.
149 #1 YANNI DIAKOMALIS CORNELL, #3 TARIQ WILSON NC ST., #6 JARED ABBAS STANFORD, #8 BRYCE ANDONIAN VT, #9 JONATHAN MILNER APP ST., #10 JOSH FINESILVER DUKE, #13 ZACH SHERMAN NO. CAROLINA, #21 KADEN GFELLER OK STATE,
157 #3 AUSTIN O'CONNOR N CAROLINA, #10 JARED FRANEK ND ST., #11 JARRETT JACQUES MO, #15 WYATT SHEETS OK ST., #20 PARKER KNOPMAN DREXEL, #22 CONNOR BRADY VT.
165 #3 KEEGAN O'TOOLE MO, #4 SHANE GRIFFITH STANFORD, #6 LUKE WEBER NDAK ST, #7 TRAVIS WITLAKE OK ST.,
#12 THOMAS BULLARD NC ST., #15 JULIAN RAMIREZ CORNELL.
174 #3 MEKHI LEWIS VT, #4 HAYDEN HIDLAY NC ST., #7 MITCH FINESILVER DUKE, #9 CHRIS FOCA CORNELL, #11 PEYTON MOCCO MO, #12 MICHAEL O'MALLEY DREXEL, #16 CLAY LAUTT N. CAROLINA, #18 CADE DEVOS S.DAKST., #20 DUSTIN PLOTT OK STATE(MOVING UP IN NEXT POLL)
184 #3 TRENT HIDLAY NCST, #6 DAKOTA GEER OK ST., #7 HUNTER BOLEN VT, #12 JEREMIAH KENT MO, #12 TANNER SLOAN SDST, #21 JONATHANLOEW CORNELL.
197 #1 A J FERRARI OK ST.,#5 ROCKY ELAM MO, #14 OWEN PENTZ NDST, #17 ISAAC TRUMBLE NC ST, #20 JACOB CARDENAS CORNELL.
285 #12 WYATT HENDRICKSON AIR FORCE, #16 NATHAN TRAXLER VT, #24 BRANDON METZ NDST, NR LUKE SURBER OK STATE. HE COULD DEFEAT ALL 3 OF THE ABOVE.
TOURNAMENT STARTS NEW YEAR'S DAY 2022 AND FINISHES JAN 2ND. MR EARL AND I ARE GOING AS USUAL. A TIP FOR ANYONE ORDERING TIX. UNLESS YOU WANT TO PAY FOR SEASON TICKETS TO THE TN/CHAT WRESTLING, YOU HAVE TO WAIT TO ORDER THEM UNTIL 12/6. HOPE TO SEE MANY OF YOU THERE. IT IS THE BEST SITE FOR ALL OF THE TOURNAMENTS WE GO TO AND IS WELL RUN AND FAN FRIENDLY.
PLOTT HAS NOW MOVED UP TO #13 IN THE NEW RANKINGS.

But I'd like one last usage of it. Can we get a few anecdotal accounts of butt hurt sooner in this thread? Please? I want one last surge of their misery going through my veins.

Please add anything.

I’m going to Stillwater and will be there Saturday morning. I was hoping someone might have a suggestion for a reasonable place to watch the game.

Women’s Tennis digs in on the hill and declares “this we’ll defend” while the NBA, Jamie Dimon and the “men” crawl over to lick boots.

What a time to be alive.

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Those of you in Stilllwater should go check it out.

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I see a lot of new fans/posters on the board recently, and wanted to say I am glad you are here to contribute, learn and be part of our Cowboy family. That is all.

GO POKES!!!!!!

"OSU coach Mike Gundy said this week that eight players who are graduating will return, with most coming on the defensive side of the ball."


Any idea who the eight are?