Not sure why it worked for me, but while I have it in another tab, I’ll post it:
The exchange didn’t get much attention at the time. But it’s worth remembering as we look ahead to the end of the 2022
election cycle — and, accordingly, the start of the 2024 presidential campaign.
During
an interview with “60 Minutes” last month, President Biden acknowledged that his statements that he intends to run again do not necessarily mean he will.
“Look, my intention, as I said to begin with, is that I would run again,” Biden said. “But it’s just an intention. But is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen.”
On one hand, Biden noted that stating you are running carries with it certain requirements to which he does not want to submit right now. On the other hand, he acknowledges that he hasn’t decided yet. That’s always been the logical extension of “I intend to run” — just as “I’m not running” doesn’t necessarily mean “I won’t run.” But you don’t often see politicians acknowledge that wiggle room so forthrightly.
Maybe that’s Biden being Biden —
saying all that he means, in addition to meaning what he says, as he would put it — but we should hardly discount the prospect of an open Democratic primary to go along with an open Republican one.
For now, the big thing to watch is how Democrats perform in the
midterms.
Biden turns 80 next month, which is a somewhat arbitrary marker, thanks to our base-10 system. But if he’s 80 years old, unpopular, and his party just came off bruising midterm elections, there will be plenty of pressure on him to step aside. Already, some prominent Democrats are taking
the highly unusual step of urging him to do just that.
If the party does better than expected, though, it could help Biden by making the base feel strongly about him again. Biden’s approval ratings have recovered somewhat in recent months, but when his numbers did fall, one aspect was particularly troublesome: the
lack of Democrats who said they strongly approved of him. To feel really good about running again, he’ll want to restore the faith of the base. A successful Democratic midterm showing could allow Biden to argue that what Congress got done in recent months shows that the American people appreciate the results he produced.
With the election just over the horizon and Biden’s decision not far behind that, here are our latest quarterly rankings of the 10 potential candidates from among whom the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee is likely to come.
As with before, we’re including Biden because it’s not crazy to think someone could challenge him if he did run (even as his potential opponents insist they’ll defer).
Others worth mentioning: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Stacey Abrams, Mitch Landrieu and Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.)
10. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: In
a recent GQ profile written by my former colleague Wesley Lowery, the liberal New York congresswoman offered some interesting comments on her potential national aspirations. On the one hand, she said, she wants
to believe someone like her could run and win. “But at the same time,” she said, “my experience here has given me a front-row seat to how deeply and unconsciously, as well as consciously, so many people in this country hate women. And they hate women of color.” What seems clear is that she could have a significant base of support if she did give it a shot. (Previous ranking: 10)
9. Roy Cooper: There remains little to suggest that the North Carolina governor is seriously preparing for a national campaign. To the extent he is, he’s not exactly raising his profile. He’s the biggest electability-first candidate in the field — a guy who won twice even as Donald Trump was carrying his state. But as we’ll get to, he could soon have some real competition for that mantle. (Previous ranking: 9)
8. Elizabeth Warren: Complicating matters for Warren is that she’s also up for reelection to the Senate in 2024. We’ve seen candidates try to run for president and then revert to seeking their day job if it doesn’t work out. But given how her last presidential campaign went, she might not be raring to spend two full years campaigning. (Previous ranking: 5)