From what I have read to date, don’t believe the ordinary Russian citizens have really been effected by the war so far other then sanctions and a few deaths of sons/husbands.
I also don’t think Ukraine would try to hit hospitals, universities etc with the longer range missiles, instead they would concentrate on infrastructure, especially power generating capacities. They would also start hitting military bases that air attacks are launched from.
While there is no doubt a tranche of military and political entities that want to return to the “greater glory” of the old Soviet Union I also believe there are military and political entities that see the futility of the war. Therefore I have no doubt there would be a coup before nukes fly.
What still baffles me is how in the hell are China and Russia still sitting on the UN Security Council. There would not be more than 3 countries who support a nuclear strike against Ukraine or anywhere else. China attacking Taiwan, South Korea and Philippines is plausible but even that seems like a bridge too far. They would have to perform some type of amphibious landing to make an attack on Taiwan & the Philippines really stick, which is something they have never done. The learning curve on amphibious landings is extremely steep and prone to major loses on that learning curve.
IMHO there are two paths either give Ukraine an ultimatum that they are going to lose some land and make peace with territory assurances going forward and an immediate NATO membership or continue to supply them with more sophisticated weapons and let them do as they think strategically prudent and brush off Putins threats. But you can’t be in the middle now.
The threats to go nuclear are a ruse in my opinion to give the west an option to make Ukraine sue for peace and the west let them know that weapons shipments will become harder and harder to get unless they accept some type of peace agreement. When I look at Europe it’s hard to see countries like Germany. France, Spain and others to not take the path of least resistance and demand Ukraine to participate in a peace agreement.
Do you trust that Russia/putin will honor any treaty/agreement signed? Related and completely relevant why have a UN if Ukraine is forced to accept peace at the cost of about 20% of their country? Since 2008 Russia has invaded parts of the republic of Georgia and Ukraine, plus been involved in the Syrian Civi War and Africa. We’ve been in this place before and continuing to placate Putin with reverence to their threats only will lead to more bloodshed.
You don't have a wrong take. I do think Putin is capable of using nukes. Keep in mind there is no guarantee a coup against Putin would even work. He has survived a lot. As far as the Russian people go, they have definitely been kept out of the conflict. Ukraine is no saint in this conflict and more than willing to strike civilian targets. A Ukrainian admitted that it was him that blew up the pipeline in the Baltic. I still think he had US assistance to pull it off as well.
There is a question that NATO countries even have a military capable of taking on Russia's numbers. Italy, I think has about 200,000 soldiers, that's it, and they are the largest army in Europe. It would take a significant amount of time to put US soldiers in the numbers needed into Europe to defend it. How well trained these soldiers are is also questionable. Putin would have extensive intelligence of the order of battle of all of these European armies, and you can throw in Belarus on Russia's side. It's a crap shoot.
I'm honestly still baffled by the lack of large-scale heavy bombers being used by Russia. They must feel as if the airspace is too dangerous over Ukraine. Russia has something like 3,000 aircraft in their inventory. Ukraine has something around 150. It's a numbers game in this situation. Why is Putin holding back his Airforce? One answer could be that incase he needs to attack NATO.
The Ukrainian invasion of Russia while bold was probably not a good use of limited resources and can't be backed up with support. They are in the process of losing ground as we speak. If they go into full scale retreat, there could be an opportunity in it for a Russian counter advance. Currently I would assess that Russia is winning the war. It's slow and bloody but he is achieving his goals. That is why the US is looking at having Ukraine use the weapons. It would be much better for all parties to negotiate a peace deal that risk whatever Russia will do.
I know you are invested in Ukraine winning this thing, but at what point is that land worth the fight? A win for Ukraine is survival. The fact that they had a deal on the table and the Biden administration stopped it from going forward means that a deal can be reached. I would prefer Ukrainian survival over a war that is constantly escalating toward world destruction.
Russian will continue to push its weight around in Eastern Europe like it has always done for the last 500-600 years. It's nothing new. We will have to deal with that in the future Putin or no Putin. The UN is useless. NATO has more standing than the UN. Adding Ukraine gains NATO nothing but a bigger headache. Something that the EU can ill afford. Ukrainian membership in NATO would also invite more trouble.
Don't forget that China is willing to take massive casualties to achieve it's goals. They are like Russia in that their people are secondary to their aims. They haven't been posturing with the Philippines for nothing, and they will let N. Korea attack S. Korea until the North needs help. While we have been quietly standing up and updating old WWII bases in the Pacific. But the US is stretched thin all across the world.
Unfortunately, I agree with Trump that we are closer to WWIII than we ever have been. I would prefer to stay out of that until absolutely necessary, and then unleash everything we have. Including our drone tech. The drones have changed the battlespace, but have they made a difference? They are still not impacting the battlespace in any kind of meaningful way, but if the right drone tech was used it certainly may. Honestly, drones are more of a terror weapon, like mustard gas or flamethrowers in Ukraine at this time.
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