Randy PetersonDes Moines Register
The Des Moines Register’s annual Big 12 Conference predictions column means the football season is almost here. Thank goodness. Many of us are eager to start writing about who’s going to be good and who isn’t.
Texas and Oklahoma will join the SEC in 2024 with the momentum of going 1-2 in their final Big 12 Conference season. That’s the bottom line of this 3,000-word exercise of research, facts, opinion and speculation.
Newcomers BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF don’t appear to have the talent to hang with the Longhorns and Sooners.
Kansas State winning its second conference championship game in a row? Coach Chris Klieman’s team should be good, but I’m not certain it’s that good.
TCU playing in the College Football Playoff’s national championship game again? No one saw that coming in 2022, so a repeat would surprise the college football world. Again.
No. 1 Texas
Why the Longhorns here?
Coach Steve Sarkisian’s team is loaded. It’s so chock full of talent that it’s up to Sark and the staff not to mess them up. All-Everything running back Bijan Robinson is gone. One-for-one, he’s irreplaceable. Three-for-one, which is what likely will happen, and the Longhorns aren’t likely to lose much. And we all know that when Texas successfully runs the ball, Texas usually wins. “We've got a roster full of players who quite frankly came to the University of Texas to try to win a Big 12 Championship,” Sarkisian said at Big 12 Media Days. “We've got one more opportunity to do that. Our guys are focused on that.”
Potential issues
Like a basketball team trying to find enough shots to keep multiple scorers happy, how do the Longhorns keep Arch Manning and Maalik Murphy engaged while playing behind the All-American potential of Quinn Ewers? That remains to be seen, but it’s clear who’s No. 1. “Quinn is extremely talented,” Sarkisian told the Big 12 press. “There's not a throw he can't make. He's got a very high football IQ. If things go the way we think they can go, the pundits are probably right. He is a first-round draft pick quarterback.”
Does not face: Cincinnati, UCF, Oklahoma State, West Virginia.
Prediction: 11-1 overall, 9-0 in Big 12 play
No. 2 Oklahoma
Why the Sooners here?Last season didn’t cut it by Oklahoma standards. Records of 6-7 overall and 3-6 in the Big 12 could have had fans calling for Brent Venables’ firing had he not been in his first season as head coach. Losing against Florida State 35-32 in the Cheez-It Bowl wasn’t exactly a great way to end a season, either. I see at least 10 wins this season. Improve a defense against whom opponents averaged 30.0 points a game (99th nationally), and there’s a chance.
Potential issues
Anyone thinking the schedule-maker would intentionally make life tough in the Sooners’ final Big 12 season – well, it didn’t happen. How’s this for a break before heading off to the SEC? No Kansas State. No Baylor. No Texas Tech. No problem? That’s another story. Games against Texas, Oklahoma State and BYU won’t exactly be cinch wins. Veteran quarterback Dillon Gabriel, with 11,000 passing yards and 95 passing touchdowns at UCF and Oklahoma, must stay healthy. The defense must figure out how to stop rushers. “It goes without saying we went 6-7 last year and fell well below our expectations and our standards at Oklahoma,” Venables said.
Does not face: Kansas State, Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech.
Prediction: 11-1 overall, 8-1 in Big 12 play
No. 3 Kansas State
Why the Wildcats here?Winning the 2022 Big 12 Conference championship game became almost like an after-thought after TCU advanced to the College Football Playoff championship game. Remember, though, that Chris Klieman’s team beat those Horned Frogs in the league’s playoff game. Maintaining momentum includes quarterback Will Howard, a veteran despite playing behind Adrian Martinez some of last season. Florida State transfer running back Treshaun Ward had 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns in two seasons before transferring, so he’s got the potential to form a nice 1-2 punch with D.J. Giddens, who played behind all-Big 12 Deuce Vaughn. “They don't need to be Deuce,” Klieman said.
Potential issues
Kansas State had eight-win seasons three times in the past four years,. Doing it again is certainly achievable, especially when you don't have to face Oklahoma. Still, K-State faces tough road games against Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas. “What you did yesterday is great, but it pales in comparison to what you can do today,” Klieman said at Big 12 Media Days.
Does not face: BYU, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, West Virginia.
Prediction: 9-3 overall, 7-2 in Big 12 play
No. 4 TCU
Why the Horned Frogs here?This comment from coach Sonny Dykes at Big 12 Media Days is worth repeating: “We want to fly under the radar a little bit. I think it's a role that we relish. We want to over-perform and under-promise. That's kind of our mentality in our program.” Under the radar? Fat chance, considering the Horned Frogs played in last season’s College Football Playoff championship game. All-World quarterback Max Duggan, who defined the cliché “catching lightning in a bottle,” is gone. He played because starter Chandler Morris hurt his knee against Colorado in the opening game last season. Morris was the starter for a reason. He’s good. He’ll play behind a veteran offensive line, and he’ll throw to receivers that should be very good.
Potential issues
TCU will be good again this season, but national title game good? That’s a stretch. The defense is loaded. The offense, under new coordinator Kendall Briles, will go quicker. Still, eight players from last season’s team were drafted. Can Morris win the close game that Duggan won? “We lost some really good football players,” Dykes said. “Max Duggan finished second in the Heisman Trophy. We had three wide receivers drafted. We had an offensive lineman drafted in the second round. We lost some significant weapons. The thing I love, though, is the guys we have coming back. What happened last year is certainly not going to have any bearing on what's going to happen this year.”
Does not face: Cincinnati, Kansas, Oklahoma State, UCF.
Prediction: 9-3 overall, 6-3 in Big 12 play
