Ian Boyd thinks it is:
As I expected going in, this was a lopsided matchup that didn’t really offer much intrigue for the state of college football races or even who’d win this particular game but there was the chance we’d get a really fascinating tactical battle when OU’s defense faced the Tennessee offense.
Before diving into the fantastic war between the former deposed Oklahoma assistants while Bob Stoops frowns over there in the corner, let’s talk through some ramifications for Venables’ Sooner program.
It’s over.
It’s not over over but the writing is on the wall.
MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN
The days for the Bob Stoops coaching tree are numbered. They have been weighed and found wanting, the kingdom is to be divided among the Medes and the Persians.
Does this seem extreme? Here’s the deal. The Brent Venables era was heavily contingent on 5-star quarterback Jackson Arnold having a big year in 2025 as a returning starter.
Dillon Gabriel served as a bridge for the Sooners to transition to an era defined by a built up, Venables defense paired with an offense built up from fresh recruits to replace what Riley had left behind. The 2024 season was going to be a rebuild, with a more realized defense helping to carry some of the weight while Arnold and the retooled offense found their feet. Then fall camp saw them lose one key receiver and O-lineman after another…and now:
He did this early in the game. It’s a two-man route. He sees two-high safeties and knows the post is a risk so he throws the crosser. Extremely late. Into the other safety and a sinking cornerback who has absolutely nothing to defend underneath because OU is in a 8/9 man protection so they actually have a chance to get a deep throw off without the quarterback getting smacked. Just a terrible decision and emblematic of a broken offense and broken young quarterback.
It got worse.
A few bad things happened. Jackson Arnold made the right read to keep on a quarterback counter play that was abysmally blocked and fumbled when gang tackled. This reversed the advantage Oklahoma had after strip-sacking Nico Iamaleava inside his own 10. Not good, not entirely his fault.
Then Oklahoma surrendered a safety due to abysmal O-line play.
No matter! The defense sack-stripped Nico yet again. On the ensuing offensive possession, Arnold pulled this out of his bag:
That’s a fumble and Tennessee recovered it and scored a touchdown to make it 19-3. Game over. The Sooners brought in freshman quarterback Mike Hawkins later, who made a few plays with his legs and was able to fight to get it to 25-15 before the end.
I think Arnold forgot this was a run-read all the way. Or maybe he snapped it late and couldn’t get to the flat route on time. If you were throwing the flat route it needed to be at the snap when the overhang blitzed rather than chasing it. I dunno, none of the timing makes sense here.
After the game, Venables was effusive in praise of Hawkins and completely uninterested in protecting Arnold. The “fumble” in particular was noted to have come from a pass that wasn’t even an option on the play. Venables said this was a run, probably because the box count is even for the offense. I sympathize with Arnold some, the designs of the Sooner plays rarely make clear sense.
Arnold just completely panicked and lost his head and now everyone in Oklahoma knows it and wants the freshman quarterback in a desperate hope he can run around (at 180 pounds) in the SEC and make enough magic happen to allow them to win a few SEC games on the strength of their defense.
Here’s the problem.
First of all, Hawkins isn’t going to save them. A 180-pound freshman who’s on the field to play undisciplined ball and “make things happen” is going to kill you or himself with his decision-making, whichever comes first.
Meanwhile, if Arnold is checked out for the rest of this season, then he is likely to bail in the offseason, get pushed out if they feel he isn’t committed to getting better, or perhaps stay but collapse into himself and bust. Is he the type to take a disaster like this, get off the mat, and go to work for the next 300 days committed to ensuring something like this never happens again? I dunno, and it doesn’t really seem like anyone there believes in him.
It appears he’s ruined as an Oklahoman quarterback. This means the NIL investment is a bust and they will need a different quarterback for the 2025 season, assuming Venables can win enough games this year to even get there, which is not a given with their schedule.
The catastrophic nature of this loss is going to kill the long-term plan for Venables football. Can he pivot? Doing so would require taking the following steps:
Brent Venables doesn’t really have an offensive network, he’d need to figure out who to go hire or else have the Oklahoma brass do it for him. Another apple from the Stoops’ tree? Kevin Wilson? Someone Venables coached with at Clemson? Does Bill Bedenbaugh have a connection anywhere? That hire would also need to be able to either help or lead the sale on a transfer quarterback as soon as they came. Who’s going to follow the new hire into that mess? Running it back with Hawkins after whatever unfolds over the following weeks is going to be really tough. Getting Jackson Arnold to buy back in would be difficult as well, particularly when he could just follow Jeff Lebby to Mississippi State and get to play in schemes that make sense again.
It’s possible Venables could win 6-7 games and they could still look at the shape of things heading into 2025 and say, “do we really need to see more? Or should we just cut the cord now?” But if you do that…what’s next? Is the Oklahoma administration and donor class ready to go find another coach from outside the Bob Stoops tree who can take the program into a new era of success in the SEC? Can they navigate that while also observing the results of this season to see if Venables can fight his way out?
I don’t know what they’re going to do but I think each path is totally fraught and doomed. There’s no way out. They gave him an extension in the preseason to help protect themselves and set up 2025 as the make or break year. Well now it’s already broken because they couldn’t get there without collapsing on offense and pinning it all on the quarterback everything was built around.
Alright, I’ll tell you what, let’s do a little more flag football here and I’ll do a big breakdown on Wednesday of how Brent Venables’ Flyover defense (3-3-5 with three deep safeties) gave Josh Heupel’s Veer and Shoot all they wanted and more. Venables is still a great defensive coach.
As I expected going in, this was a lopsided matchup that didn’t really offer much intrigue for the state of college football races or even who’d win this particular game but there was the chance we’d get a really fascinating tactical battle when OU’s defense faced the Tennessee offense.
Before diving into the fantastic war between the former deposed Oklahoma assistants while Bob Stoops frowns over there in the corner, let’s talk through some ramifications for Venables’ Sooner program.
It’s over.
It’s not over over but the writing is on the wall.
MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN
The days for the Bob Stoops coaching tree are numbered. They have been weighed and found wanting, the kingdom is to be divided among the Medes and the Persians.
Does this seem extreme? Here’s the deal. The Brent Venables era was heavily contingent on 5-star quarterback Jackson Arnold having a big year in 2025 as a returning starter.
Dillon Gabriel served as a bridge for the Sooners to transition to an era defined by a built up, Venables defense paired with an offense built up from fresh recruits to replace what Riley had left behind. The 2024 season was going to be a rebuild, with a more realized defense helping to carry some of the weight while Arnold and the retooled offense found their feet. Then fall camp saw them lose one key receiver and O-lineman after another…and now:
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It got worse.
A few bad things happened. Jackson Arnold made the right read to keep on a quarterback counter play that was abysmally blocked and fumbled when gang tackled. This reversed the advantage Oklahoma had after strip-sacking Nico Iamaleava inside his own 10. Not good, not entirely his fault.
Then Oklahoma surrendered a safety due to abysmal O-line play.
No matter! The defense sack-stripped Nico yet again. On the ensuing offensive possession, Arnold pulled this out of his bag:
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I think Arnold forgot this was a run-read all the way. Or maybe he snapped it late and couldn’t get to the flat route on time. If you were throwing the flat route it needed to be at the snap when the overhang blitzed rather than chasing it. I dunno, none of the timing makes sense here.
After the game, Venables was effusive in praise of Hawkins and completely uninterested in protecting Arnold. The “fumble” in particular was noted to have come from a pass that wasn’t even an option on the play. Venables said this was a run, probably because the box count is even for the offense. I sympathize with Arnold some, the designs of the Sooner plays rarely make clear sense.
Arnold just completely panicked and lost his head and now everyone in Oklahoma knows it and wants the freshman quarterback in a desperate hope he can run around (at 180 pounds) in the SEC and make enough magic happen to allow them to win a few SEC games on the strength of their defense.
Here’s the problem.
First of all, Hawkins isn’t going to save them. A 180-pound freshman who’s on the field to play undisciplined ball and “make things happen” is going to kill you or himself with his decision-making, whichever comes first.
Meanwhile, if Arnold is checked out for the rest of this season, then he is likely to bail in the offseason, get pushed out if they feel he isn’t committed to getting better, or perhaps stay but collapse into himself and bust. Is he the type to take a disaster like this, get off the mat, and go to work for the next 300 days committed to ensuring something like this never happens again? I dunno, and it doesn’t really seem like anyone there believes in him.
It appears he’s ruined as an Oklahoman quarterback. This means the NIL investment is a bust and they will need a different quarterback for the 2025 season, assuming Venables can win enough games this year to even get there, which is not a given with their schedule.
The catastrophic nature of this loss is going to kill the long-term plan for Venables football. Can he pivot? Doing so would require taking the following steps:
- Winning at least six games this season and saving his job with either a freshman quarterback or, (stifles laughter), 7th-year Casey Thompson.
- Quickly moving in the offseason in a new direction on offense with a new staff which can get immediate results.
- Navigating the transfer portal to acquire a proven winner at quarterback who matches the new offensive system.
Brent Venables doesn’t really have an offensive network, he’d need to figure out who to go hire or else have the Oklahoma brass do it for him. Another apple from the Stoops’ tree? Kevin Wilson? Someone Venables coached with at Clemson? Does Bill Bedenbaugh have a connection anywhere? That hire would also need to be able to either help or lead the sale on a transfer quarterback as soon as they came. Who’s going to follow the new hire into that mess? Running it back with Hawkins after whatever unfolds over the following weeks is going to be really tough. Getting Jackson Arnold to buy back in would be difficult as well, particularly when he could just follow Jeff Lebby to Mississippi State and get to play in schemes that make sense again.
It’s possible Venables could win 6-7 games and they could still look at the shape of things heading into 2025 and say, “do we really need to see more? Or should we just cut the cord now?” But if you do that…what’s next? Is the Oklahoma administration and donor class ready to go find another coach from outside the Bob Stoops tree who can take the program into a new era of success in the SEC? Can they navigate that while also observing the results of this season to see if Venables can fight his way out?
I don’t know what they’re going to do but I think each path is totally fraught and doomed. There’s no way out. They gave him an extension in the preseason to help protect themselves and set up 2025 as the make or break year. Well now it’s already broken because they couldn’t get there without collapsing on offense and pinning it all on the quarterback everything was built around.
Alright, I’ll tell you what, let’s do a little more flag football here and I’ll do a big breakdown on Wednesday of how Brent Venables’ Flyover defense (3-3-5 with three deep safeties) gave Josh Heupel’s Veer and Shoot all they wanted and more. Venables is still a great defensive coach.
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