We’re down to just two regular-season weekends, and the College Football Playoff picture remains uncharacteristically murky. While a betting person might feel confident slotting No. 1 Georgia and No. 2 Ohio State into two of the spots, there are still so many possible variations for filling out the rest of the field.
Making matters particularly complicated in this eighth season of the four-team format is the possibility of two candidates with profiles never previously selected: an undefeated Group of 5 team (Cincinnati) and/or a two-loss Power 5 team (Alabama).
It would be impossible to list every possible four-team combination still in play. But I ranked the 10 most likely ones based on predicted outcomes of every remaining relevant game, from a final two weeks with no upsets to a final two weeks with many.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State
Everyone’s sleeping on the Cowboys, No. 9 in last week’s CFP rankings, but they have a chance to finish with three top-15 wins against Oklahoma and Baylor (twice), plus a nice non-conference win over Boise State. That would likely bump them above Cincinnati, which will have two Top 25 wins, max. Then it’s a matter of whether the committee will reward the undefeated team with a lighter schedule (Cincinnati) or the two-loss team with a tougher schedule (Alabama).
Note that the Bearcats would have the best win of the two, at 11-1 Notre Dame, and they might even finish with the same number of Top 25 wins, two (Alabama’s being Ole Miss and Arkansas), but Alabama would have six wins over bowl-eligible Power 5 opponents to Cincinnati’s one.
I’m taking the Bearcats against my better instincts.
Would that open the door for the once-forgotten Fighting Irish? … Probably not.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati
Not only is Notre Dame hurt by the lack of a conference championship game, but the Tide would still have a stronger résumé. The Irish will likely finish with just one Top 25 win, against a three- or four-loss Wisconsin team.
In fact, none of my scenarios have Oklahoma making the Playoff.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati
The loser in that scenario is, of course, Cincinnati.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State
Again, this assumes the committee takes Cincinnati over not just two-loss Alabama but two-loss Ohio State. (And the Buckeyes, of course, would be 10-2, not 11-2).
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State
Boy, that SEC rematch won’t tick off fans at all.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Alabama
So much for new blood.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan
… And it somehow results in another Alabama-Notre Dame BCS/College Football Playoff matchup.
I’m sure there are even wilder scenarios than these, but we’ll wrap up our exercise here.
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Making matters particularly complicated in this eighth season of the four-team format is the possibility of two candidates with profiles never previously selected: an undefeated Group of 5 team (Cincinnati) and/or a two-loss Power 5 team (Alabama).
It would be impossible to list every possible four-team combination still in play. But I ranked the 10 most likely ones based on predicted outcomes of every remaining relevant game, from a final two weeks with no upsets to a final two weeks with many.
1. Chalk
In this scenario, undefeated Georgia beats 11-1 Alabama in the SEC title game; Ohio State beats 10-1 Michigan and (likely) 9-3 Wisconsin to finish as a 12-1 Big Ten champ; Cincinnati beats 7-4 East Carolina and 10-1 Houston to finish 13-0; and Oklahoma State beats 10-1 Oklahoma and (likely) 10-2 Baylor in Arlington to finish as a 12-1 Big 12 champion. Also, Notre Dame handles 3-8 Stanford this week to finish 11-1.No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State
Everyone’s sleeping on the Cowboys, No. 9 in last week’s CFP rankings, but they have a chance to finish with three top-15 wins against Oklahoma and Baylor (twice), plus a nice non-conference win over Boise State. That would likely bump them above Cincinnati, which will have two Top 25 wins, max. Then it’s a matter of whether the committee will reward the undefeated team with a lighter schedule (Cincinnati) or the two-loss team with a tougher schedule (Alabama).
Note that the Bearcats would have the best win of the two, at 11-1 Notre Dame, and they might even finish with the same number of Top 25 wins, two (Alabama’s being Ole Miss and Arkansas), but Alabama would have six wins over bowl-eligible Power 5 opponents to Cincinnati’s one.
I’m taking the Bearcats against my better instincts.
2. The Big 12 produces a two-loss champion
It’s not hard to imagine the following happening: Oklahoma State wins Bedlam, handing Oklahoma its second loss, but then loses to Baylor in the conference title game. The Bears finish as 11-2 champions. Or, Oklahoma wins this weekend, then loses a rematch with the Cowboys. Again, everyone finishes with two losses, and the Big 12 is out.Would that open the door for the once-forgotten Fighting Irish? … Probably not.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati
Not only is Notre Dame hurt by the lack of a conference championship game, but the Tide would still have a stronger résumé. The Irish will likely finish with just one Top 25 win, against a three- or four-loss Wisconsin team.
3. Oklahoma finishes as a 12-1 Big 12 champion
The committee has not been keen on the Sooners, especially given they don’t yet have a Top 25 win. They can pick up two in the last two weeks, but they’d come against the same team, Oklahoma State. Is that enough to erase 11 weeks of scraping by the likes of 3-8 Nebraska and 2-9 Kansas? … I think not.In fact, none of my scenarios have Oklahoma making the Playoff.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati
4. Alabama upsets Georgia in Atlanta; Oklahoma State finishes 12-1
The Dawgs have dominated 11 consecutive opponents, while the Tide lost to 8-3 Texas A&M and has had their hands full with everyone from 5-6 Florida to 5-6 LSU to 7-4 Arkansas. But would you really put it past Nick Saban to break Georgia fans’ hearts yet again? It would potentially give Alabama two top 10 wins — same as Ohio State.The loser in that scenario is, of course, Cincinnati.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia
5. Alabama beats Georgia, and the Big 12 knocks itself out
Welcome back, Cincinnati.No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia
6. Georgia beats Alabama, and Michigan wins the Big Ten
Based on recent history, Michigan beating Ohio State should not be on any list of “likely” scenarios, but Vegas believes an upset is within reason. The Wolverines are modest eight-point underdogs. And if they do that, they’d be favorites in Indianapolis.No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State
Again, this assumes the committee takes Cincinnati over not just two-loss Alabama but two-loss Ohio State. (And the Buckeyes, of course, would be 10-2, not 11-2).
7. Alabama beats Georgia, and Michigan wins the Big Ten
Another nightmare scenario for Cincinnati, unless the Big 12 bows out.No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan
8. Georgia beats Alabama, Ohio State beats Michigan and Cincinnati loses a game
The Bearcats were at their best in Saturday’s 48-14 rout of 8-3 SMU, but they’ve had their share of sloppy games against inferior opponents. What if the next one comes on Black Friday at East Carolina — and this time they don’t survive it?No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State
Boy, that SEC rematch won’t tick off fans at all.
9. Georgia beats Alabama, Ohio State beats Michigan, Cincinnati loses a game and the Big 12 bows out
At long last, we’ve found a scenario where Brian Kelly makes his third Playoff in four years.No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Alabama
So much for new blood.
10. Alabama beats Georgia, Michigan wins the Big Ten, Cincinnati loses a game and the Big 12 bows out
At long last, college football has another 2007-type ending …No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan
… And it somehow results in another Alabama-Notre Dame BCS/College Football Playoff matchup.
I’m sure there are even wilder scenarios than these, but we’ll wrap up our exercise here.
Stewart Mandel's 10 possible College Football Playoff scenarios, from chalk to a 2007-esque ending
Alabama beats Georgia ... or Georgia beats Alabama ... and Cincinnati wins out ... or the Big 12 cancels itself out ...
theathletic.com
