I work with 3 stock analysts / brokers and one is outstanding (the other 2 are good), and he is as conservative as can be. Back when Trump ran the first time, he explained why investors were hoarding cash and waiting for Trump to win to get back in, we had more cash on the sidelines in the history of the US at that time, that cash coming off the sideline created the stock market increase. People wanted to see if if a tax friendly Prez was going to win.
Couple of things (first 2 my thoughts, the last from an analyst / broker):
1. If you look at the stock market over the years, it actually does best when you have split control. In other words, a Rep Prez and Dem Senate or House, and vice-versa. That brings the most stability in terms of not having huge policy changes and for either side to not chase the worst of their instincts.
2. Back when Trump was Prez, the Oil and Gas industry invested heavily in exploration, drilling, and production, it worked. Biden took office and it was basically a war on fossil fuels. The domestic oil companies took it on the chin and they did not reap the full return they expected for their capital investment. Shareholders not happy. The oil and gas industry is making money right now, they are not over spending on exploration and drilling, the shareholders are seeing good returns. I read an article from many of the CEO's and they said they can not trust the political environment we are in, and they will never again ramp up production like that again to see the outcome of an election destroy returns. It is true the cost of the energy impacts inflation greatly, and pushing the green agenda is pushing a move towards green energy before it is cost neutral to consumers to do so. Trump to get these oil and gas companies to "drill baby drill"? Unfortunately what Biden did to them may make this impossible. IF Trump really wants this, the government may have to say, we understand you need at least $75 per barrel to invest in more exploration and drilling (or whatever the number is), and the government will guarantee $75 barrel when it dips below that price point and subsidize it. Or, can he convince them? From what I read the answer is no, the CEO's answer to the shareholders.
3. From my analyst / broker - This is related to 1 above. Again, he is a diehard Trump supporter. Wall Street this time is hoping for Kamala to win, and for Reps to control at least the House and also the Senate. Control of the House alone is enough to muck up legislation and keep Harris in check. The reason why? Trump's planned tariff's on China. Short term it will cause an increase in many things we consume and cause inflation, it will hurt the stock market. We are a consumer driven economy and consumers will not be able to consume as many products. Wall Street only worships green. Trump's plan long-term, IF you can guarantee JD wins in 2028, very well may cause manufacturing jobs to return to the US and cause good new jobs, but that takes time.
The problem we have is that we need consistent energy and economic policy from administration to administration to maximize energy and lower its cost, and to protect manufacturing jobs and remain competitive in the global market place.
I am just passing this on as an FYI. I would like nothing better than complete Rep control of the Prez, and all of Congress.
Everything comes with trade offs, and we are not in the same spot as the 2016 election, COVID and so many other things have changed things significantly.
Couple of things (first 2 my thoughts, the last from an analyst / broker):
1. If you look at the stock market over the years, it actually does best when you have split control. In other words, a Rep Prez and Dem Senate or House, and vice-versa. That brings the most stability in terms of not having huge policy changes and for either side to not chase the worst of their instincts.
2. Back when Trump was Prez, the Oil and Gas industry invested heavily in exploration, drilling, and production, it worked. Biden took office and it was basically a war on fossil fuels. The domestic oil companies took it on the chin and they did not reap the full return they expected for their capital investment. Shareholders not happy. The oil and gas industry is making money right now, they are not over spending on exploration and drilling, the shareholders are seeing good returns. I read an article from many of the CEO's and they said they can not trust the political environment we are in, and they will never again ramp up production like that again to see the outcome of an election destroy returns. It is true the cost of the energy impacts inflation greatly, and pushing the green agenda is pushing a move towards green energy before it is cost neutral to consumers to do so. Trump to get these oil and gas companies to "drill baby drill"? Unfortunately what Biden did to them may make this impossible. IF Trump really wants this, the government may have to say, we understand you need at least $75 per barrel to invest in more exploration and drilling (or whatever the number is), and the government will guarantee $75 barrel when it dips below that price point and subsidize it. Or, can he convince them? From what I read the answer is no, the CEO's answer to the shareholders.
3. From my analyst / broker - This is related to 1 above. Again, he is a diehard Trump supporter. Wall Street this time is hoping for Kamala to win, and for Reps to control at least the House and also the Senate. Control of the House alone is enough to muck up legislation and keep Harris in check. The reason why? Trump's planned tariff's on China. Short term it will cause an increase in many things we consume and cause inflation, it will hurt the stock market. We are a consumer driven economy and consumers will not be able to consume as many products. Wall Street only worships green. Trump's plan long-term, IF you can guarantee JD wins in 2028, very well may cause manufacturing jobs to return to the US and cause good new jobs, but that takes time.
The problem we have is that we need consistent energy and economic policy from administration to administration to maximize energy and lower its cost, and to protect manufacturing jobs and remain competitive in the global market place.
I am just passing this on as an FYI. I would like nothing better than complete Rep control of the Prez, and all of Congress.
Everything comes with trade offs, and we are not in the same spot as the 2016 election, COVID and so many other things have changed things significantly.
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