Revised Oklahoma State AA Probabilities Based On Seeds

[wrestleknownothing]

I calculate the probability a specific seed will achieve AA based on trailing ten years of data. Using the individual probabilities I calculate the groups.

The expect total AAs for Oklahoma State based on seeds is 4.7 and the breakdown from 0 to 9 looks like this:

 

[chasepollard]

I calculate the probability a specific seed will achieve AA based on trailing ten years of data. Using the individual probabilities I calculate the groups.

The expect total AAs for Oklahoma State based on seeds is 4.7 and the breakdown from 0 to 9 looks like this:

This graph is wrong...we AA 9 guys!

J/K, I really enjoy the metrics you bring around here! Keep it up.

Matter of fact, can you do this for every weight with our guys?

 

[wrestleknownothing]

This graph is wrong...we AA 9 guys!

J/K, I really enjoy the metrics you bring around here! Keep it up.

Matter of fact, can you do this for every weight with our guys?

And you can thank Wyatt Sheets for that 1.3% chance of AAing from the #33 spot.

 

[Chasingthirty-five]

How is the expected points done? Is that advancement+placement and an average or is it the average based on 10 years of that seed? Thanks for this fun information!

 

[chasepollard]

How is the expected points done? Is that advancement+placement and an average or is it the average based on 10 years of that seed? Thanks for this fun information!

I would assume this point total reflects non-bonus inputs.

 

[okokzach]

You're the GOAT, @wrestleknownothing !

 

[wrestleknownothing]

How is the expected points done? Is that advancement+placement and an average or is it the average based on 10 years of that seed? Thanks for this fun information!

I would assume this point total reflects non-bonus inputs.

It is expected advancement + expected placement + expected bonus.

It is a model that I build, and revise, off of historical data. By using expected values rather than assuming everything goes exactly to seed (the Flo, Wrestlestat and Intermat method when doing team points), it allows for the fact that guys seeded in non-AA slots sometimes AA, and guys seeded in AA spots sometimes do not.

 

[Cowboy1989]

What is our expected team placement?

 

[Pennstate1985]

What is our expected team placement?

3rd. Iowa is at 76

 

[Chasingthirty-five]

So hopefully even assuming his model is pretty accurate, this team bonuses at a much higher clip than previous teams. Gotta be 3-6 points in there to bump us back to 2nd! Ha

 

[wrestleknownothing]

What is our expected team placement?

Nip and tuck with Iowa and Nebraska

 

[wrestleknownothing]

So hopefully even assuming his model is pretty accurate, this team bonuses at a much higher clip than previous teams. Gotta be 3-6 points in there to bump us back to 2nd! Ha

I am wrong every time, but I am right on average.