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Returning Points - 2026

W

wrestleknownothing

Recruit
Dec 9, 2024
90
261
53
There is only 1 returning point left in the portal (take a bow Evan Bates - Northwestern), so I thought I would put together the returning points graphic.

These are only points returning from the 2025 tournament. Each bar is broken down by where the points were scored in 2025.

image.thumb.png.847c1d7d4751651ccc8984cd7b66a3b2.png



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With 11 returning scorers for Ohio State, obviously something will have to give.
 
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cowboyfan05 said:
Looks like OSU has the most points lost (not returning)
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Def a tough road. But we add points at 33 and 97. I hate saying that…I love Surber!

We do lose a ton at 74, 84 and 285 that will be hard to replicate.

That said, I think we have more AAs and it’ll be hard to score the same points.
 
chasepollard said:
Def a tough road. But we add points at 33 and 97. I hate saying that…I love Surber!

We do lose a ton at 74, 84 and 285 that will be hard to replicate.

That said, I think we have more AAs and it’ll be hard to score the same points.
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Agreed. Though Ryder could definitely finish top 4, I don't expect he'll score as many bonus points as Plott, at least not in his first year.
 
okokzach said:
Agreed. Though Ryder could definitely finish top 4, I don't expect he'll score as many bonus points as Plott, at least not in his first year.
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It’s for the lineup thread…but we should be points ahead at 33 and 97 only.

In the preseason, we have 10 AAs and score around 200 points. I think Tagen scores more, Dee scores more, Facundo scores less, Ryder scores less, Cody scores way more and Doucet scores significantly less following up a Hodge Winner.

We pick up points at 33 and 97…but it’s tough sledding to duplicate Philly at 2 weights. It will be fun though!
 
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chasepollard said:
It’s for the lineup thread…but we should be points ahead at 33 and 97 only.

In the preseason, we have 10 AAs and score around 200 points. I think Tagen scores more, Dee scores more, Facundo scores less, Ryder scores less, Cody scores way more and Doucet scores significantly less following up a Hodge Winner.

We pick up points at 33 and 97…but it’s tough sledding to duplicate Philly at 2 weights. It will be fun though!
Click to expand...
says every Iowa fan always lol.

Most posters on here knew that when DT went all in on 2025 that 2026 was going to be a leaner year. Every year after that is the climb toward the top. So take next year in stride and remember the long term plan. I remember PSUs 2015 season when we took a reboot. Just had to suck it up as a fan and look to Christmas morning the next year.
 
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Pennstate1985 said:
says every Iowa fan always lol.

Most posters on here knew that when DT went all in on 2025 that 2026 was going to be a leaner year. Every year after that is the climb toward the top. So take next year in stride and remember the long term plan. I remember PSUs 2015 season when we took a reboot. Just had to suck it up as a fan and look to Christmas morning the next year.
Click to expand...

PSU overwhelming faves for the next 2 years. Just an embarrassment of riches and recruiting.
 
vhsalum said:
PSU overwhelming faves for the next 2 years. Just an embarrassment of riches and recruiting.
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I don't see a ton of recruiting quality in 2027. How about 2028? 2025 and 2026 were stellar years. DT hit 2026 while it was hot.
 
Pennstate1985 said:
I don't see a ton of recruiting quality in 2027. How about 2028? 2025 and 2026 were stellar years. DT hit 2026 while it was hot.
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The ebbs and flows of recruiting i guess. But you're right. Not a ton of star power in those classes. TBD on the 2028 class.
 
OK, Illinois is fixed. I was only missing Byrd, Luffman, and Ruth. Other than that...

And I went with the wrestlestat lineup for Ohio State.

And even though I hate doing it, I added in some guys returning from redshirt and used their 2024 points: Welsh PSU, Jack NCST, Arrington NCST.

And to make it more legible I cut it off at OKST. Sorry, Minnesota, Penn, Purdue, Wyoming, Stanford, Michigan, and Iowa State.

image.thumb.png.02f95a8fa93e6365d51fe5a8098d61a4.png
 
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@wrestleknownothing

Not to beg, but kinda beg. Can you take Willie's Big Board, and using his numbers from his Recruiting Bible to project possible points in with the returning points?

Ex. In 2024, 91.5% of AA's were Big Boarders. Using that, and projecting what Fr. and RSFr. possible to lineup for their respective teams and adding them into the point total? Like OSU is has 6 spots open that will be filled by a transfer or recruit. With that number, we should AA 5.49 guys with that probability. Swiderski, Lockett, Facundo, Ryder, Merrill and possibly Vega...assign them the low end of AA average points?
 
chasepollard said:
@wrestleknownothing

Not to beg, but kinda beg. Can you take Willie's Big Board, and using his numbers from his Recruiting Bible to project possible points in with the returning points?

Ex. In 2024, 91.5% of AA's were Big Boarders. Using that, and projecting what Fr. and RSFr. possible to lineup for their respective teams and adding them into the point total? Like OSU is has 6 spots open that will be filled by a transfer or recruit. With that number, we should AA 5.49 guys with that probability. Swiderski, Lockett, Facundo, Ryder, Merrill and possibly Vega...assign them the low end of AA average points?
Click to expand...
Interesting question. I will see what I can do.
 
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Pennstate1985 said:
says every Iowa fan always lol.

Most posters on here knew that when DT went all in on 2025 that 2026 was going to be a leaner year. Every year after that is the climb toward the top. So take next year in stride and remember the long term plan. I remember PSUs 2015 season when we took a reboot. Just had to suck it up as a fan and look to Christmas morning the next year.
Click to expand...
For sure. It’s going to fun to watch the progression. I have a feeling we will finish better than we are projected.
 
chasepollard said:
@wrestleknownothing

Not to beg, but kinda beg. Can you take Willie's Big Board, and using his numbers from his Recruiting Bible to project possible points in with the returning points?

Ex. In 2024, 91.5% of AA's were Big Boarders. Using that, and projecting what Fr. and RSFr. possible to lineup for their respective teams and adding them into the point total? Like OSU is has 6 spots open that will be filled by a transfer or recruit. With that number, we should AA 5.49 guys with that probability. Swiderski, Lockett, Facundo, Ryder, Merrill and possibly Vega...assign them the low end of AA average points?
Click to expand...
Using Willie's Big Board data I put together the probability of qualifying for the NCAA tournament as a true freshman and as a redshirt freshman based on overall rank. I also calculated expected points for qualifiers. Putting the two together gets us an expected points by rank.

Caveat: The data is VERY noisy. What I am presenting is fitted expected values. There is a pretty wide band of uncertainty around all of this. For example, due to the fitting process the #2 ranked wrestler is expected to score more than everyone but the #1 ranked wrestler. But, in reality the #2 ranked wrestler has only scored the 14th most points.

Once you get outside of the top 10 ranked recruits the odds of a freshman (true and redshirt combined) even qualifying for the tournament are under 50/50.




That severely impacts their point scoring potential.

Only a #1 ranked recruit can be expected to score double digits. And by the time you get to #10 you can expect about 4 points.



But again, remember the noise. Mesenbrink scored 19.5 points as a redshirt freshman from the #59 slot.
 
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oklahomaglory said:
This may change with ISU getting two AAs recently.
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I still don't see ISU getting more than 3-4 AAs and 50-60 points. They have a decent dual meet team but not a lot of high powered guys to run deep at nationals. Maybe three guys with high AA potential and none as a favorite. 141, 197, and heavy.
 
Pennstate1985 said:
I still don't see ISU getting more than 3-4 AAs and 50-60 points. They have a decent dual meet team but not a lot of high powered guys to run deep at nationals. Maybe three guys with high AA potential and none as a favorite. 141, 197, and heavy.
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Eh, I think you may be selling them short?

Poulin - AA
Frost - AA
Frost - AA
(I think both Frosts have AA'd, could be wrong?)
Eche - AA
Paniro - Blood rounder
Zerban - AA
Gaitan - Blood rounder
Dean - R16
Elam - AA
Yonger - AA

So yeah, there are literally 7 guys that have AA'd and 3 more that are right there.
 
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Jordan Williams news is getting out he was arrested Assault, Trespassing and public intoxication happened Friday night
 
chasepollard said:
Eh, I think you may be selling them short?

Poulin - AA
Frost - AA
Frost - AA
(I think both Frosts have AA'd, could be wrong?)
Eche - AA
Paniro - Blood rounder
Zerban - AA
Gaitan - Blood rounder
Dean - R16
Elam - AA
Yonger - AA

So yeah, there are literally 7 guys that have AA'd and 3 more that are right there.
Click to expand...
Let's revisit this in March. You have 7 AAs. I say 4 max. What's the bet?
 
Pennstate1985 said:
You got it patsy. I note that you have jettisoned 7 AAs immediately. 4 AAs is fair. Do you need my address now or do you want the pain to grow over time as I squeeze the life out of you? Your choice Sally.

Honestly, I see 4 AAs as a push.
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That’s cool! 4 push, 5 me.

You can pay me with a crispy in Cleveland at our victory party.
 
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Pennstate1985 said:
says every Iowa fan always lol.

Most posters on here knew that when DT went all in on 2025 that 2026 was going to be a leaner year. Every year after that is the climb toward the top. So take next year in stride and remember the long term plan. I remember PSUs 2015 season when we took a reboot. Just had to suck it up as a fan and look to Christmas morning the next year.
Click to expand...
David did not go all in on 2025, that was Smith as there were some boosters that agreed to step up and pay for a few transfers and David Taylor and staff got the most out of them. My thoughts are DT is not that big on NIL transfers, but wants to recruit kids that want to be in Stillwater.
 
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OSUMatFan said:
David did not go all in on 2025, that was Smith as there were some boosters that agreed to step up and pay for a few transfers and David Taylor and staff got the most out of them. My thoughts are DT is not that big on NIL transfers, but wants to recruit kids that want to be in Stillwater.
Click to expand...
No one will be getting big NIL transfers anymore with the new rules. Deloitte NIL GO is supposed to solve that. Time will tell how it will all work
 
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