I thought it might be fun to break down the 2017 recruiting class by the various measures that I like to employ and some that are mentioned broadly on this board.
For this post (Measure #1), let's take a look at how this class does at improving the overall talent level of the squad. This can be evaluated in totality, but may be best examined when looking position by position. To do this you must look at the players that are being replaced and the young men filling those spots. This is a very difficult evaluation, because with the signees, you have no concrete evidence of how well they will buy into the program, fit, develop, and perform. With those departing, you have the benefit of hindsight (whether in their favor or against) that demonstrates their value at this level.
In light of that nearly impossible set of circumstances, we must all recognize that this evaluation and projection is way more subjective than objective. Still, I think there are some reasonable judgments that can be made based on body type, athleticism, high school/junior college performance, and intangibles.
For every position group where I believe the overall talent level of the position was increased, I will put a "+" in parentheses. If the talent level appears to have fallen off, it will be marked with "-". If it is replacement worthy with no noticeable change, it will be "NC". If the projection or comparison is too difficult to make an educated guess, it will be "?". Let's begin.
QB (+): This one is very simple. The Cowboys had an open scholarship at the position, so any good prospect would have been a net gain. Jelani Woods has some great physical tools, but is not a polished product coming out of high school in the mold of Mason Rudolph. That speaks nothing to his potential upside, but there is a path of development to pursue before that potential can be realized. He has a big time arm, excels at the deep ball, and demonstrates above average mobility/escapability for a man his size, but he needs seem work on his throwing mechanics. There are not a lot of defensive backs that are going to want to come up and tackle him in the open field when breaks it out and starts running.
RB (+): The way Chris Carson emerged down the stretch helped move the bar higher here, but the reality is that the Cowboys significantly upgraded their talent level in the backfield in terms of speed, agility, and breakaway potential. Chuba Hubbard is the type of back the Cowboys have craved and at one point thought they had with Ronald Jones, a long striding back that has speed to take the ball the distance on any play. The ability to pair a speed-back like him with another back or two that can wear down the defense is something that the Pokes have been pursuing for a while. JD King is that heavy-lifter type of back that can carry the load for the offense and soften up the defense. He has the ability to make guys miss and pull away, but he brings the element of being able to get an extra couple of yards beyond what is blocked consistently. He will help the offense stay ahead of the chains. Chris Carson and Rennie Childs were productive players, but the Cowboys signed two potential difference makers in their places.
CWB (?): Blake Jarwin has a fantastic shot at playing in the NFL, so it's unfair to compare incoming players to that standard. He was a fantastic player the past couple of seasons and found a way to impact games even if his number was not called as often in the passing game as it could have been. Zac Veatch emerged as a quality run game blocker. The combination of Baron Odom and Sione Finefeuiaki on the surface does not appear to be an upgrade; however, I believe that Sione brings a different skill set into the mix that will offset what is lost with this year's seniors. He should make a real impact in short yardage and goal line situations. He is a natural lead blocker that has the ability to run the ball effectively and catch it off of play action. Most importantly, he has the tools to be a blitz neutralizer in the backfield. You are replacing Veatch, Frazier, and Jarwin with Finefeuiaki and Odom. I think this is going to be difficult to evaluate given the difference in strengths.
WR (+): The Cowboys lose Austin Hays and Jhajuan Seales who were both productive players, but they have reloaded with a trio of outstanding prospects that are going to upgrade the position. Tylan Wallace is a complete player that could play inside or out, but seems destined to be a player that will work underneath routes against nickel backs. He has a combination of polished route running skills and hands that is going to make him a significant contributor throughout his career. LC Greenwood looms as a potential nightmare for Big 12 corners as a long-striding vertical threat with great size. He is a very intriguing player with NFL type size. Braydon Johnson blends in well with the other mix of skills in this trio. He has very good straightline speed.
K (+): Ben Grogan is being replaced by Jack McClure. You never truly know about kickers until they are put into live game situations, but his leg strength, athleticism, and versatility have the coaches really excited about his long term potential.
CB (?): Ashton Lampkin will have an opportunity to play in the NFL. Lenzy Pipkins provided some rotational help. The numbers work against this year's group, but the lone true CB has the potential to be a standout. I really like Lamarcus Morton and believe he has at least as high of a ceiling as a player as the incoming Lampkin did several years ago.
S (?/+): In spite of losing Jordan Sterns, Derrick Moncrief, and Dylan Harding, I believe that the coaches have increased the overall talent and athleticism at the postion. This is probably the best collection of safety talent in one class that they have signed. Jordan Sterns and Tre Flowers played a lot of quality football, so the bar is set pretty high on a comparison basis, but there are some really good football players coming in. Tre Sterling and Kris McCune have everything you want physically at the position with their physicality and ability to make plays on the football. Thabo Mwaniki and Malcolm Rodriguez are all around football players that should play the role of glue guys in the secondary. They are smart, aggressive athletes that have a nose for the football. I believe there is a much higher upside with this class than with the outgoing seniors, but that potential is a long way from being realized at this point. Obviously, the future is not known, but the indications are good.
LB (NC/?): Patrick Macon comes in highly regarded to fill the vacated roles of Devante Averette and Josh Mabin. He looks good on film, and I hope that translates quickly to game days in Stillwater. I can't say that he looks much different physically than Devante Averette did at the same stage, although he does demonstrate more read and react skills. They are both very physical players that excel in downhill and blitz situations. Until our newcomer proves to be a better prospect on the field, I would see this as replacement level recruiting, especially when you consider he is replacing the combination of Averette and a very underated Josh Mabin (who had to retire from football). I think the same can be said at the Star position, although there are a few that see Brendan Vaughn as perhaps the hidden jewel of the class.
DE (+): Since no players were lost, this is an obvious plus. Hopefully Brock Martin's quickness and explosion carry over to the next level as he continues to add weight to his frame.
DT (-): Fua Leilua appears to be a guy that can plug right into the rotation at DT and perhaps slide into Mote Maile's role, but neither he nor Brendon Evers and Enoch Smith possess the same quickness and size that the Cowboys lost in Vincent Taylor. Vincent Taylor was a high ceiling DT recruit when he signed and he did live up to his potential. The Cowboys were hurt by his early departure. The DT class is solid, but without significant development, I don't think this group raised the talent level relative to what was lost in Vincent Taylor, Mote Maile, and Eric Davis. The Cowboys are fortunate in that they have a pretty deep stable of capable players to rotate through those positions.
OL (?/+): I know that this will be controversial and a surprise to most, but relative to departing talent, the Cowboys raised the level. Securing Tyler Moore is a huge part of this recruiting class, because the staff has been struggling to find a true #2 behind Brad Lundblade for both immediate depth and to groom for a future starting role. Moore secures one of the spots on the 2-deep going forward. The fact that he has 2-years of Big 10 starting experience allows us a better glimpse into his potential. Arlington Hambright arrives in Stillwater as a smaller, more athletic, and nastier blocker than the guy he replaces in Victor Salako. Look for 2 more additions before the summer that will replace Brandon Pertile and Michael Wilson. Until those additions are solidified and made public, I will keep this as a "?", but I expect it to be a "+" by fall camp.
For this post (Measure #1), let's take a look at how this class does at improving the overall talent level of the squad. This can be evaluated in totality, but may be best examined when looking position by position. To do this you must look at the players that are being replaced and the young men filling those spots. This is a very difficult evaluation, because with the signees, you have no concrete evidence of how well they will buy into the program, fit, develop, and perform. With those departing, you have the benefit of hindsight (whether in their favor or against) that demonstrates their value at this level.
In light of that nearly impossible set of circumstances, we must all recognize that this evaluation and projection is way more subjective than objective. Still, I think there are some reasonable judgments that can be made based on body type, athleticism, high school/junior college performance, and intangibles.
For every position group where I believe the overall talent level of the position was increased, I will put a "+" in parentheses. If the talent level appears to have fallen off, it will be marked with "-". If it is replacement worthy with no noticeable change, it will be "NC". If the projection or comparison is too difficult to make an educated guess, it will be "?". Let's begin.
QB (+): This one is very simple. The Cowboys had an open scholarship at the position, so any good prospect would have been a net gain. Jelani Woods has some great physical tools, but is not a polished product coming out of high school in the mold of Mason Rudolph. That speaks nothing to his potential upside, but there is a path of development to pursue before that potential can be realized. He has a big time arm, excels at the deep ball, and demonstrates above average mobility/escapability for a man his size, but he needs seem work on his throwing mechanics. There are not a lot of defensive backs that are going to want to come up and tackle him in the open field when breaks it out and starts running.
RB (+): The way Chris Carson emerged down the stretch helped move the bar higher here, but the reality is that the Cowboys significantly upgraded their talent level in the backfield in terms of speed, agility, and breakaway potential. Chuba Hubbard is the type of back the Cowboys have craved and at one point thought they had with Ronald Jones, a long striding back that has speed to take the ball the distance on any play. The ability to pair a speed-back like him with another back or two that can wear down the defense is something that the Pokes have been pursuing for a while. JD King is that heavy-lifter type of back that can carry the load for the offense and soften up the defense. He has the ability to make guys miss and pull away, but he brings the element of being able to get an extra couple of yards beyond what is blocked consistently. He will help the offense stay ahead of the chains. Chris Carson and Rennie Childs were productive players, but the Cowboys signed two potential difference makers in their places.
CWB (?): Blake Jarwin has a fantastic shot at playing in the NFL, so it's unfair to compare incoming players to that standard. He was a fantastic player the past couple of seasons and found a way to impact games even if his number was not called as often in the passing game as it could have been. Zac Veatch emerged as a quality run game blocker. The combination of Baron Odom and Sione Finefeuiaki on the surface does not appear to be an upgrade; however, I believe that Sione brings a different skill set into the mix that will offset what is lost with this year's seniors. He should make a real impact in short yardage and goal line situations. He is a natural lead blocker that has the ability to run the ball effectively and catch it off of play action. Most importantly, he has the tools to be a blitz neutralizer in the backfield. You are replacing Veatch, Frazier, and Jarwin with Finefeuiaki and Odom. I think this is going to be difficult to evaluate given the difference in strengths.
WR (+): The Cowboys lose Austin Hays and Jhajuan Seales who were both productive players, but they have reloaded with a trio of outstanding prospects that are going to upgrade the position. Tylan Wallace is a complete player that could play inside or out, but seems destined to be a player that will work underneath routes against nickel backs. He has a combination of polished route running skills and hands that is going to make him a significant contributor throughout his career. LC Greenwood looms as a potential nightmare for Big 12 corners as a long-striding vertical threat with great size. He is a very intriguing player with NFL type size. Braydon Johnson blends in well with the other mix of skills in this trio. He has very good straightline speed.
K (+): Ben Grogan is being replaced by Jack McClure. You never truly know about kickers until they are put into live game situations, but his leg strength, athleticism, and versatility have the coaches really excited about his long term potential.
CB (?): Ashton Lampkin will have an opportunity to play in the NFL. Lenzy Pipkins provided some rotational help. The numbers work against this year's group, but the lone true CB has the potential to be a standout. I really like Lamarcus Morton and believe he has at least as high of a ceiling as a player as the incoming Lampkin did several years ago.
S (?/+): In spite of losing Jordan Sterns, Derrick Moncrief, and Dylan Harding, I believe that the coaches have increased the overall talent and athleticism at the postion. This is probably the best collection of safety talent in one class that they have signed. Jordan Sterns and Tre Flowers played a lot of quality football, so the bar is set pretty high on a comparison basis, but there are some really good football players coming in. Tre Sterling and Kris McCune have everything you want physically at the position with their physicality and ability to make plays on the football. Thabo Mwaniki and Malcolm Rodriguez are all around football players that should play the role of glue guys in the secondary. They are smart, aggressive athletes that have a nose for the football. I believe there is a much higher upside with this class than with the outgoing seniors, but that potential is a long way from being realized at this point. Obviously, the future is not known, but the indications are good.
LB (NC/?): Patrick Macon comes in highly regarded to fill the vacated roles of Devante Averette and Josh Mabin. He looks good on film, and I hope that translates quickly to game days in Stillwater. I can't say that he looks much different physically than Devante Averette did at the same stage, although he does demonstrate more read and react skills. They are both very physical players that excel in downhill and blitz situations. Until our newcomer proves to be a better prospect on the field, I would see this as replacement level recruiting, especially when you consider he is replacing the combination of Averette and a very underated Josh Mabin (who had to retire from football). I think the same can be said at the Star position, although there are a few that see Brendan Vaughn as perhaps the hidden jewel of the class.
DE (+): Since no players were lost, this is an obvious plus. Hopefully Brock Martin's quickness and explosion carry over to the next level as he continues to add weight to his frame.
DT (-): Fua Leilua appears to be a guy that can plug right into the rotation at DT and perhaps slide into Mote Maile's role, but neither he nor Brendon Evers and Enoch Smith possess the same quickness and size that the Cowboys lost in Vincent Taylor. Vincent Taylor was a high ceiling DT recruit when he signed and he did live up to his potential. The Cowboys were hurt by his early departure. The DT class is solid, but without significant development, I don't think this group raised the talent level relative to what was lost in Vincent Taylor, Mote Maile, and Eric Davis. The Cowboys are fortunate in that they have a pretty deep stable of capable players to rotate through those positions.
OL (?/+): I know that this will be controversial and a surprise to most, but relative to departing talent, the Cowboys raised the level. Securing Tyler Moore is a huge part of this recruiting class, because the staff has been struggling to find a true #2 behind Brad Lundblade for both immediate depth and to groom for a future starting role. Moore secures one of the spots on the 2-deep going forward. The fact that he has 2-years of Big 10 starting experience allows us a better glimpse into his potential. Arlington Hambright arrives in Stillwater as a smaller, more athletic, and nastier blocker than the guy he replaces in Victor Salako. Look for 2 more additions before the summer that will replace Brandon Pertile and Michael Wilson. Until those additions are solidified and made public, I will keep this as a "?", but I expect it to be a "+" by fall camp.
