Question for those with more strategery than me...

[trapped_in_tx]

How valid is the theory that Trump's occupation with Twitter, MSM cat fights, engaging critics, sprinkling hyperbole everywhere when he talks, etc. really has more to do with where he wants other people to focus rather than where his focus lies?

I'm genuinely curious if someone could truly accomplish that level of manipulation. I'm inclined to say no, but when you understand someone else's confirmation bias, perhaps it's not as hard as one might imagine?

I'm not inherently a manipulative person so maybe I'm just incredibly naïve.

Thoughts?

 

[Rdcldad]

the dude said FU to party politics and was elected in what tom ryan had to call a referendum and changed the course of our country for the next generation

given those facts what do you think?

 

[poke2001]

I would normally agree, but he has been doing this through 16 R candidates, the Clinton machine, during his first weeks as President Elect and now 2 days in office

I believe it's on purpose.

 

[CBradSmith]

I would normally agree, but he has been doing this through 16 R candidates, the Clinton machine, during his first weeks as President Elect and now 2 days in office

I believe it's on purpose.

Can't argue with this.

I do think he occasionally says some stupid s***. But by doing so he creates the camouflage with in which he places his land mines.

It needs to be noted that he wouldn't be able to do this with any precision if the left tail of the political Spectrum hadn't become so homogenous and predictable in their responses.

Their act really is backfiring on them now. It's in the best interest of the Democratic Party to marginalize the most extreme of their half of the voting Bloc and elevate some democratic politicians that are closer to the middle.

 

[imprimis]

Can't argue with this.

I do think he occasionally says some stupid s***. But by doing so he creates the camouflage with in which he places his land mines.

It needs to be noted that he wouldn't be able to do this with any precision if the left tail of the political Spectrum hadn't become so homogenous and predictable in their responses.

Their act really is backfiring on them now. It's in the best interest of the Democratic Party to marginalize the most extreme of their half of the voting Bloc and elevate some democratic politicians that are closer to the middle.

There aren't too many dems who are close to the middle. Maybe Joe Manchin.

 

[07pilt]

It's in the best interest of the Democratic Party to marginalize the most extreme of their half of the voting Bloc and elevate some democratic politicians that are closer to the middle.

Wrong. The extreme part is the part people actually like, Bernie. People hate the Democrats closer to the middle, Hillary and the identitarians.

 

[Headhunter]

He's smart enough to have realized that the more outraged the MSM and the establishment of both parties are the more the forgotten people of middle America like him for it.

Sure he says things that are obvious exaggerations or mostly false but so what? The only people who really care are the people he wants to tweak.

He knows if he delivers on jobs, taxes, immigration and knocking the hell out of ISIS he'll be wildly popular with the people who count, voters.

 

[CBradSmith]

Wrong. The extreme part is the part people actually like, Bernie. People hate the Democrats closer to the middle, Hillary and the identitarians.

Whose made up all that marching this past weekend?

People hate Hillary. If she wasn't so transparently entitled to win while being known as a 100% corporatist, she very well may have won.

Joe Manchin may have won a few of those blue wall states.

 

[CBradSmith]

Wrong. The extreme part is the part people actually like, Bernie. People hate the Democrats closer to the middle, Hillary and the identitarians.

I consider those that drive identity politics to be extreme, as it is now basically synonymous with all leftist orthodoxy.

You're right that those drivers might not be at the left most tail of the curve....which is why the left wing is so incredibly predictable in their lockstep responses.

 

[07pilt]

Joe Manchin may have won a few of those blue wall states.

We already have a 16 person sample size on Trump beating Republicans.

 

[DrMaseofBase]

the dude said FU to party politics and was elected in what tom ryan had to call a referendum and changed the course of our country for the next generation

given those facts what do you think?

Can I steal this for Facebook fights?

 

[07pilt]

I consider those that drive identity politics to be extreme, as it is now basically synonymous with all leftist orthodoxy.

Not at all. Identity politics is the crutch of the centrists who offer nothing but neocon foreign policy and neoliberal domestic policy. Identity politics is their way of offering something to people without offending their military industrial and Wall St donors.

 

[CBradSmith]

Not at all. Identity politics is the crutch of the centrists who offer nothing but neocon foreign policy and neoliberal domestic policy. Identity politics is their way of offering something to people without offending their military industrial and Wall St donors.

I may stand corrected, Pilt.

Will ponder this more when I have time.

Since we are in your wheelhouse, are college snowflakes on the fringe or in the middle? Does the left need to double down on the embracing of snowflakes, carving out broader platform planks (safe spaces) within which they can exist, or should the left encourage them to grow up?

 

[07pilt]

I may stand corrected, Pilt.

Will ponder this more when I have time.

Since we are in your wheelhouse, are college snowflakes on the fringe or in the middle? Does the left need to double down on the embracing of snowflakes, carving out broader platform planks (safe spaces) within which they can exist, or should the left encourage them to grow up?

The way Mega feels about the KKK and nazis is the way I feel about college snowflakes. There is already a backlash against them from within the left. I expect that overall they will moderate, and steer clear of the less defensible stuff like making a federal case out of Trump chalking or disciplinary action for professors that forget to give trigger warnings. They will still keep Milo and Richard Spencer from getting paid to speak at their universities which I am fine with.

 

[MegaPoke]

How valid is the theory that Trump's occupation with Twitter, MSM cat fights, engaging critics, sprinkling hyperbole everywhere when he talks, etc. really has more to do with where he wants other people to focus rather than where his focus lies?

I'm genuinely curious if someone could truly accomplish that level of manipulation. I'm inclined to say no, but when you understand someone else's confirmation bias, perhaps it's not as hard as one might imagine?

I'm not inherently a manipulative person so maybe I'm just incredibly naïve.

Thoughts?

I think it's a blend of exactly that (manipulation) AND genuine personality quirks. That's why it works so well because the manipulation is only evident in hindsight.

That's how he crushed the GOP and beat Hillary despite every conceivable disadvantage.

 

[Rdcldad]

Can I steal this for Facebook fights?

i'd be honored

and would like to give humble recognition to polisci prof dr hansen

i remember to this day him covering the new phenomena called political correctness in 90 or 91

gosh what a sht show it has evolved into

 

[MegaPoke]

I would normally agree, but he has been doing this through 16 R candidates, the Clinton machine, during his first weeks as President Elect and now 2 days in office

I believe it's on purpose.

Occam's razor.

At this point alternative theories require a lot more coincidence.

 

[MegaPoke]

Not at all. Identity politics is the crutch of the centrists who offer nothing but neocon foreign policy and neoliberal domestic policy. Identity politics is their way of offering something to people without offending their military industrial and Wall St donors.

Good insight.

 

[MegaPoke]

Wrong. The extreme part is the part people actually like, Bernie. People hate the Democrats closer to the middle, Hillary and the identitarians.

What do you make of Bernie's comments on Trump pulling out of TPP? I found them very interesting. It would be really interesting if Bernie and Trump became strategic allies in that sense.

Follow up question - Do you view Trump as basically a third party candidate? I do. I think he's completely hijacked the republicans as a Trojan horse. Ross Perot 2.0 but with a better game plan.

I'm not even sure I understand your political position but I get the feeling that certain political leanings on this board have shifted slightly i the last few weeks.

 

[07pilt]

What do you make of Bernie's comments on Trump pulling out of TPP? I found them very interesting. It would be really interesting if Bernie and Trump became strategic allies in that sense.

I was fine with Bernie's comments. Worst thing Democrats/Bernie can do is make a big deal about opposing Trump when he does the right thing/something they campaigned on. I am sure Bernie would ally with Trump on enacting all of Bernie's issues.

Follow up question - Do you view Trump as basically a third party candidate? I do. I think he's completely hijacked the republicans as a Trojan horse. Ross Perot 2.0 but with a better game plan.

First, you cannot judge Trump on his rhetoric since it is so ambiguous. He says contradictory stuff which means he is who ever you want him to be. Which is why his supporters and detractors are so fervent. If you judge him based on his official actions as president, my first instinct is to say you are right, but then I wonder what a republican is. I hesitate to recommend Corey Robin, because he is a lefty, but he has interesting ideas about ideological continuity. https://nplusonemag.com/online-only/online-only/the-politics-trump-makes/. It is a lot to ask you to read so I will summarize: Carter:FDR::Trump:Reagan.
Trump for sure is a repudiation of the most decadent Republican schools of thought, Randian style libertarianism, and neoconservatism. If you think those schools of thought are core to the republican party then your thesis is correct.
Paul Ryan sure doesn't seem like he has been hijacked though.

I'm not even sure I understand your political position but I get the feeling that certain political leanings on this board have shifted slightly i the last few weeks.

Don't get me wrong. I still believe in social justice an political correctness, just not as a basis of politics and certainly not a substitution for politics.
I would probably give up politics if someone were to competently run the economy.

 

[CowboyJD]

Occam's razor.

At this point alternative theories require a lot more coincidence.

Not really.....particularly since his tweeting style hasn't changed significantly during the campaign since the start of social media "career". He's been doing what he's been doing long before he was running for office.

Occam's razor would suggest that his constantly selling of himself as a brand and his Norman Vincent Peale always winning attitude and expression and propensity to fudge the truth and argue over small meaningless grudges......all of which was present well before the campaign started....has simply struck a positive nerve with enough of the public to get him elected.

That's a much simpler hypothesis than some grand "Trump Twitter Troll" political strategy for manipulating and distracting the media and his political opponents.

 

[Colorado_Poke]

Not really.....particularly since his tweeting style hasn't changed significantly during the campaign since the start of social media "career". He's been doing what he's been doing long before he was running for office.

Occam's razor would suggest that his constantly selling of himself as a brand and his Norman Vincent Peale always winning attitude and expression and propensity to fudge the truth and argue over small meaningless grudges......all of which was present well before the campaign started....has simply struck a positive nerve with enough of the public to get him elected.

That's a much simpler hypothesis than some grand "Trump Twitter Troll" political strategy for manipulating and distracting the media and his political opponents.

Agree with all of this.

 

[NeekReevers]

Not really.....particularly since his tweeting style hasn't changed significantly during the campaign since the start of social media "career". He's been doing what he's been doing long before he was running for office.

Occam's razor would suggest that his constantly selling of himself as a brand and his Norman Vincent Peale always winning attitude and expression and propensity to fudge the truth and argue over small meaningless grudges......all of which was present well before the campaign started....has simply struck a positive nerve with enough of the public to get him elected.

That's a much simpler hypothesis than some grand "Trump Twitter Troll" political strategy for manipulating and distracting the media and his political opponents.

Yep.

 

[MegaPoke]

Not really.....particularly since his tweeting style hasn't changed significantly during the campaign since the start of social media "career". He's been doing what he's been doing long before he was running for office.

Occam's razor would suggest that his constantly selling of himself as a brand and his Norman Vincent Peale always winning attitude and expression and propensity to fudge the truth and argue over small meaningless grudges......all of which was present well before the campaign started....has simply struck a positive nerve with enough of the public to get him elected.

That's a much simpler hypothesis than some grand "Trump Twitter Troll" political strategy for manipulating and distracting the media and his political opponents.

I would agree with this if it was a one off election. However, the gauntlet he ran from announcing to winning is a statistically impossible task if it were simply striking a nerve. I don't think everything he says is part of a plan, but I think he instinctively recognizes weaknesses and exploits them.

He went through 12 debates to defeat 16 politicians in the GOP primaries. I would be interested to hear how he did that by simply striking a nerve.

Scott Adams has been a big influence on convincing me Trump is an unconventionslly brilliant tactician. Perhaps not even totally aware of what he's doing - like a savant with instinctive talent, shooting from the hip.

I think Bannon took this scattershot talent and focused it. I believe that team - with Conway as the front woman is lightning in a bottle.

 

[Rdcldad]

I don't think everything he says is part of a plan, but I think he instinctively recognizes weaknesses and exploits them.

He went through 12 debates to defeat 16 politicians in the GOP primaries. I would be interested to hear how he did that by simply striking a nerve.

Scott Adams has been a big influence on convincing me Trump is an unconventionslly brilliant tactician. Perhaps not even totally aware of what he's doing - like a savant with instinctive talent, shooting from the hip.

I think Bannon took this scattershot talent and focused it. I believe that team - with Conway as the front woman is lightning in a bottle.

this

trump is a fin great white
no he is the great white
he runs barter town
he is master blaster

conway came in and gave direction and boom went the dynamite

trump thanking the clintons for coming to the congressional luncheon the TELLING them to stand was grand. cankles couldn't sit down fast enough

by the way where's newt gingrich?
dude disappeared off his oh we really are going to drain the swamp admonishment

he prolly shining trumps limo heh

 

[trapped_in_tx]

Not really.....particularly since his tweeting style hasn't changed significantly during the campaign since the start of social media "career". He's been doing what he's been doing long before he was running for office.

Occam's razor would suggest that his constantly selling of himself as a brand and his Norman Vincent Peale always winning attitude and expression and propensity to fudge the truth and argue over small meaningless grudges......all of which was present well before the campaign started....has simply struck a positive nerve with enough of the public to get him elected.

That's a much simpler hypothesis than some grand "Trump Twitter Troll" political strategy for manipulating and distracting the media and his political opponents.

Interesting discussion. I'm tempted to agree with this, but...

If this is the case, how much truth could then be ascribed to the notion that Trump's closest advisors are really just using/manipulating him instead of the other way around?

And if the real situation is actually a bit of both (seems most likely to me) how does that dynamic play out within his inner circle as we go forward?

 

[trapped_in_tx]

I would agree with this if it was a one off election. However, the gauntlet he ran from announcing to winning is a statistically impossible task if it were simply striking a nerve. I don't think everything he says is part of a plan, but I think he instinctively recognizes weaknesses and exploits them.

He went through 12 debates to defeat 16 politicians in the GOP primaries. I would be interested to hear how he did that by simply striking a nerve.

Scott Adams has been a big influence on convincing me Trump is an unconventionslly brilliant tactician. Perhaps not even totally aware of what he's doing - like a savant with instinctive talent, shooting from the hip.

I think Bannon took this scattershot talent and focused it. I believe that team - with Conway as the front woman is lightning in a bottle.

I think there is definitely something to this notion as well. I've read Adams' musings as well and his arguments can be quite persuasive.

Of course, I retain a certain required skepticism because he clearly indicates that he is a lifelong student of persuasion, which means his blog posts may well be another case study in persuasion.

I don't normally get too interested in the core motivations and machinations of the political sphere because previously it really didn't seem like anyone was angling toward much of anything other than gaining and retaining power, usually in disgusting and/or corrupt fashion.

Trump is so radically different (or certainly seems to be) that it's actually interesting to try and comprehend what is going on behind the curtain.

 

[MegaPoke]

I think there is definitely something to this notion as well. I've read Adams' musings as well and his arguments can be quite persuasive.

Of course, I retain a certain required skepticism because he clearly indicates that he is a lifelong student of persuasion, which means his blog posts may well be another case study in persuasion.

I don't normally get too interested in the core motivations and machinations of the political sphere because previously it really didn't seem like anyone was angling toward much of anything other than gaining and retaining power, usually in disgusting and/or corrupt fashion.

Trump is so radically different (or certainly seems to be) that it's actually interesting to try and comprehend what is going on behind the curtain.

Agree. 100%

 

[CowboyJD]

I would agree with this if it was a one off election. However, the gauntlet he ran from announcing to winning is a statistically impossible task if it were simply striking a nerve. I don't think everything he says is part of a plan, but I think he instinctively recognizes weaknesses and exploits them.

He went through 12 debates to defeat 16 politicians in the GOP primaries. I would be interested to hear how he did that by simply striking a nerve.

Scott Adams has been a big influence on convincing me Trump is an unconventionslly brilliant tactician. Perhaps not even totally aware of what he's doing - like a savant with instinctive talent, shooting from the hip.

I think Bannon took this scattershot talent and focused it. I believe that team - with Conway as the front woman is lightning in a bottle.

Statistically impossible....that's nonsense.

He had a hit tv show attracting millions of people....by just hitting a nerve. I mean, he mostly stood on stage and lying Ted, my hands are plenty big, and big beautiful walled his way through.

I jettisoned Adams and his tactics of influence talk when he started talking of "wizards" and neuro-linguistic programming in evaluating Trump.

I don't think he is a buffoon. I just don't buy the "master" troll and I'm not drinking Adam's "wizard of persuasion" kool-aid.

 

[MegaPoke]

Statistically impossible....that's nonsense.

He had a hit tv show attracting millions of people....by just hitting a nerve. I mean, he mostly stood on stage and lying Ted, my hands are plenty big, and big beautiful walled his way through.

I jettisoned Adams and his tactics of influence talk when he started talking of "wizards" and neuro-linguistic programming in evaluating Trump.

I don't think he is a buffoon. I just don't buy the "master" troll and I'm not drinking Adam's "wizard of persuasion" kool-aid.

Nonsense.

 

[CBradSmith]

Statistically impossible....that's nonsense.

He had a hit tv show attracting millions of people....by just hitting a nerve. I mean, he mostly stood on stage and lying Ted, my hands are plenty big, and big beautiful walled his way through.

I jettisoned Adams and his tactics of influence talk when he started talking of "wizards" and neuro-linguistic programming in evaluating Trump.

I don't think he is a buffoon. I just don't buy the "master" troll and I'm not drinking Adam's "wizard of persuasion" kool-aid.

Double nonsense.

There are entire Industries that rely on the predictive nature in identified markers to influence target segments into buying a product, voting for a politician, etcetera

The key is to identify the markers and what segments they influence.

 

[07pilt]

Nonsense.

The simple solution to this dispute, is to test both JDs and your theories of Trump predictive powers. No need to bet anything.

What will be a good indication going forward that Trump is actually a savant? What is something that he clearly wants done, that probably won't get done?

What will be a good indication going forward that Trump just kind of stumbled into this situation? What is something that it looks like he can get done, that if it doesn't get done will show that he isn't actually a troll master?

Put it to the test.

 

[MegaPoke]

The simple solution to this dispute, is to test both JDs and your theories of Trump predictive powers. No need to bet anything.
What will be a good indication going forward that Trump is actually a savant? What is something that he clearly wants done, that probably won't get done?
What will be a good indication going forward that Trump just kind of stumbled into this situation? What is something that it looks like he can get done, that if it doesn't get done will show that he isn't actually a troll master?

Not really interested in a contest with JD even though he enjoys calling me out lately. It's all fun. However - here are a few clsims to watch if executive orders and job creation aren't convincing Him.

Tighten voter laws.
Reduce inner city crime / urban renewal
New healthcare that works.

 

[NeekReevers]

I don't claim to have any special knowledge of the situation but I am certainly in the JD camp of thought that Trump is who he is and there is no master secret plan behind his tweets, etc. The man has never been able to back down from any slight at all which always leads to childish wars with the likes of Rosie O'Donnell. I swear I feel like when I turn on the news I'm watching someone report on what happened in the 2nd grade classroom at Sangre Elementary. Media says the crowd was small, Trump says the crowd was big.....you have a Doucheacrat Senator asking a nominee in which picture does it look like there is more people. Who gives a shit? I don't care if there was 1 person there or a million people there. I'm so sick of their childish bullshit and for all the talk about draining the swamp I think the swamp smells as bad as it ever has.

 

[07pilt]

Tighten voter laws.
Reduce inner city crime / urban renewal
New healthcare that works.

Voter laws is easy enough to measure. Inner city crime and urban renewal is kind of ambiguous, throw it out. What is your criteria for working healthcare? Something measurable. More people insured? Lower national healthcare spending?

 

[MegaPoke]

Voter laws is easy enough to measure. Inner city crime and urban renewal is kind of ambiguous, throw it out. What is your criteria for working healthcare? Something measurable. More people insured? Lower national healthcare spending?

No, I don't think inner city issues need to be thrown out. I think they are a massive piece of his promises that I expect to see happen. Any suggestions for how to quantify them? How about we start with murder rates and employment rates.

On health care - a working health care system will be more inexpensive and less punitive for under insured people. I've said it before, but in my personal case, it will be very easy to measure. For a stand alone tiny business like mine (literally mom and pop studio) with three kids, insurance is as much as a mortgage. We have insurance on our kids, but the wife and I are working without a net and have been for several years. It's horrifying. I'm not sure how to quantify it for the purpose of holding Trump accountable, but I'll know it when I see it. His plan to lower the cost of meds and open up competition across state lines is incredibly promising. That will basically enable me to join a trade organization that can leverage lower healthcare costs for me and my family to a point where I don't have to choose between keeping the studio open or insuring myself and my wife. That would be great.

 

[07pilt]

No, I don't think inner city issues need to be thrown out. I think they are a massive piece of his promises that I expect to see happen. Any suggestions for how to quantify them? How about we start with murder rates and employment rates.

The problem is that the murder rate has plunged since the 80s and people are still arguing about what to attribute it to (national number also lag by a year or more). If Trump can get unemployment rates significantly lower than they are now then the whole conversation is moot and Trump will become a legend instead of a controversy. I would say it is a Trump win if he passes a national stop and frisk law, or legalizes drugs (not happening), or anything that all the democrats oppose or half the republicans oppose.

On health care - a working health care system will be more inexpensive and less punitive for under insured people. I've said it before, but in my personal case, it will be very easy to measure. For a stand alone tiny business like mine (literally mom and pop studio) with three kids, insurance is as much as a mortgage. We have insurance on our kids, but the wife and I are working without a net and have been for several years. It's horrifying. I'm not sure how to quantify it for the purpose of holding Trump accountable, but I'll know it when I see it. His plan to lower the cost of meds and open up competition across state lines is incredibly promising. That will basically enable me to join a trade organization that can leverage lower healthcare costs for me and my family to a point where I don't have to choose between keeping the studio open or insuring myself and my wife. That would be great.

Do you remember what the last quote you got for full insurance on your family? Call it a win if you purchase insurance that is 10% cheaper than that.

 

[CowboyJD]

Double nonsense.

There are entire Industries that rely on the predictive nature in identified markers to influence target segments into buying a product, voting for a politician, etcetera

The key is to identify the markers and what segments they influence.

Triple nonsense.

The fact that his election results and polling numbers changed is in no way evidence that his strategy and presentation did. If you want to convince me that Trump's social media strategy with the nature and substance of his tweets changes....point out to me how they changed during the election.

 

[CowboyJD]

The simple solution to this dispute, is to test both JDs and your theories of Trump predictive powers. No need to bet anything.

What will be a good indication going forward that Trump is actually a savant? What is something that he clearly wants done, that probably won't get done?

What will be a good indication going forward that Trump just kind of stumbled into this situation? What is something that it looks like he can get done, that if it doesn't get done will show that he isn't actually a troll master?

Put it to the test.

I'm not even saying he stumbled into this situation.

Hell, he very well may be a social media savant.

All I am saying is that if he is a savant....he was a savant before the election. Hell, he may be the absolute forerunner of how we are going to choose our leaders in the future. I'm just saying he didn't become a savant or have some grand social media strategery change mid-primary.

 

[Rdcldad]

I don't claim to have any special knowledge of the situation but I am certainly in the JD camp of thought that Trump is who he is and there is no master secret plan behind his tweets, etc. The man has never been able to back down from any slight at all which always leads to childish wars with the likes of Rosie O'Donnell. I swear I feel like when I turn on the news I'm watching someone report on what happened in the 2nd grade classroom at Sangre Elementary. Media says the crowd was small, Trump says the crowd was big.....you have a Doucheacrat Senator asking a nominee in which picture does it look like there is more people. Who gives a shit? I don't care if there was 1 person there or a million people there. I'm so sick of their childish bullshit and for all the talk about draining the swamp I think the swamp smells as bad as it ever has.

while all this is going on with one wheel

trump moved the keystone pipeline forward with the stroke of a pen

that stuff that troubles my friend you is swamp fodder. little tidbits for some dumbass congressman from tucumcarri to get facetime while important stuff like pipelines is getting done