Tramel's ScissorTales: OSU offense rising quickly in Big 12 football efficiency rankings
Berry TramelOklahoman
There’s a fast-growing suspicion that the Big 12’s best football team resides in Stillwater, and most of the support for such a belief lies in the Cowboys’ defense.
OSU has the best defense in the conference. OSU has the best defense the conference has seen in many years.
But we knew that. And that alone can’t lift the Cowboys to a Big 12 championship. Some years, most years, having the Big 12’s best defense doesn’t even lift a team to the Big 12 Championship Game.
You need an offense, too. And it’s looking more and more like OSU has one of those.
The Cowboys routed Texas Christian 63-17 Saturday night, and while yes, TCU’s defense stinks, that’s sort of the point.
In my Big 12 efficiency ratings, OSU’s offense has languished in the second division most of the season. But starting last Saturday, the Cowboys’ final three opponents were TCU, Texas Tech and OU. Defenses that today rank eighth, ninth and sixth in the Big 12.
I’m not saying the ground-oriented, Spencer Sanders offense that Mike Gundy trots out in 2021 is somehow comparable to the Air Raids of Brandon Weeden and Mason Rudolph. But I am saying, OSU’s offense likely is better than we surmised.
The Cowboys are up to fourth in Big 12 offensive efficiency and aren’t that far behind Iowa State and Texas Tech, which are in a tie for second place. It’s quite conceivable that OSU’s offense could be No. 2 in the Big 12 going into Bedlam next week.
And the Big 12’s No. 2 offense, with this OSU defense, is quite a combination.
Remember, I judge offenses and defenses based on how often they score – and whether it’s via touchdown or field goal – compared to how many possessions they get or have to defend.
Here are the weekly ratings:
OFFENSE
1. Oklahoma .521: Still an excellent offense, even though it was stuffed at Baylor. The Sooners scored two touchdowns in 10 possessions in Waco. Missing two field goals didn’t help. Spencer Rattler’s return for two possessions was interesting. In Big 12 games, OU’s offensive efficiency with Caleb Williams is .606. OU’s offensive efficiency with Rattler is .360.
2. Iowa State .438: The Cyclones have an excellent offense. They are going to score on OU. Brock Purdy, Breece Hall, Charlie Kolar. It’s going to happen. The Sooners likely must score big on ISU to win.
2. Texas Tech .438: The Red Raiders beat Iowa State with third-team quarterback Donovan Smith throwing for 322 yards and three touchdowns. Tech’s quarterbacks under Mike Leach rarely were injured. But since then, Tech has a decent tradition of backup QBs playing well.
4. Oklahoma State .411: The Cowboy offense hasn’t really opened up, it’s just running the ball better and Sanders is throwing better. In the last four games, Sanders has completed 66 percent of his passes for eight touchdowns and a solitary interception.
5. Kansas State .405: Give KSU 10 possessions, it will score 28 points. That’s been close to the truth for about 25 years.
6. Texas .404: Maybe it’s time to give Steve Sarkisian some encouragement. His offense doesn’t stink -- .404 is a solid number – and he doesn’t have a top-flight quarterback. So there’s hope for the future.
7. Baylor .403: A bunch of offenses are bunched together. Despite Baylor’s victory over OU, the Bears’ offense wasn’t great. Good. It was very good. But not great.
8. TCU .324: Turns out, Chandler Morris is not manna from Heaven. OSU shut him down rather easily.
9. West Virginia .227: This number is increasingly alarming. You can’t win football games in the Big 12 – or any other league of the 21st century – with this kind of offensive inefficiency.
10. Kansas .215: The Jayhawks’ offensive efficiency jumped 57 percent points after beating Texas. That’s crazy this late in the season.
DEFENSE
1. Oklahoma State .157: A week ago, Kansas’ offensive efficiency for the conference season was .158. Which was historically low. One of the worst offenses in recent Big 12 history. And OSU’s defense now is stopping the entire conference at that rate. Amazing.
2. Baylor .282: The Bears’ defense was great against OU. Simply great. Turnovers, stops, pressure, stuffs, the entire package.
3. Iowa State .299: Strange defense. Seems stout. Often plays stout. Then there are games like at Tech and at West Virginia. I don’t get it.
4. West Virginia .342: Good solid defense, which would really have helped in the Will Grier/Geno Smith eras. But the Mountaineers need a mountain fortress defense to save its offense.
5. Kansas State .343: Middle of the pack. That’s about right.
6. Oklahoma .387: The Sooners played excellent defense for three quarters in Waco, then the dam broke. Now we know for sure that Alex Grinch’s third OU defense is just so-so. Not bad. Not all that good. Not going to win games for the Sooners.
7. Texas .414: The idea that Kansas’ offense could score six touchdowns in 12 possessions against the Longhorns is not something that passes the bounds of believability.
8. TCU .500: My question is, what happened? How did the Horned Frogs go from either great or good defenses year after year, to suddenly this disaster? Did the recruiting stop? Is there a player revolt? What happened?
9. Texas Tech .568: Strange but true. The Red Raiders actually have been stopping the run. Neither OU nor Iowa State, both traditionally strong running teams, reached 100 yards rushing the last two weeks, but the Sooners and Cyclones passed them silly.
10. Kansas .639: The Jayhawks don’t care that they’re bringing up the rear. They beat Texas in Austin.
Predictions
One fun sidekick to the efficiency ratings is a tool by which we can predict the score of matchups. They are not predisposed to predicting blowouts, but they’re fun to scour.
