Oklahoma State played second-toughest schedule in Big 12
Tyler Waldrep
OSU Sports WriterSTILLWATER — When the season began, it looked like Oklahoma State had received one of the Big 12’s toughest schedules thanks to a back-to-back meeting with preseason conference favorites Utah and Kansas State.
With the season over, it's clear the Cowboys received one of the toughest draws, except Utah was actually the team’s only lucky break.
According to the final standings, Oklahoma State played eight of the nine toughest teams it could have faced this season. If the Cowboys had faced Iowa State instead of Utah, it would have played the worst Big 12 schedule possible.
Kansas was the only other team in conference play to draw eight of the top nine teams in Big 12 play, and the Jayhawks faced each of the top four. From a mathematical standpoint, where each opponent is worth 1-15 points based on the final standings, Kansas is the only team to face a tougher draw than Oklahoma State in conference play.
Only Cincinnati, UCF, Houston and Texas Tech finished within 10 points of the Cowboys. Meanwhile the average Big 12 team's schedule was more than 15 points easier than the Cowboys.
The math might be tough to follow, but on average, the other 15 Big 12 teams faced only 5.3 of their nine toughest possible conference opponents. Considering everyone is guaranteed to face at least two such teams per season, the difference between Oklahoma State’s draw and the rest of the pack is sizable.
To make matters worse, three Big 12 teams had the week off ahead of their game with OSU. Only three other teams faced three conference opponents coming off a bye week and only Texas Tech played in four such games.
Six Big 12 teams played only once, or not at all, at a significant rest disadvantage in conference play. Big 12 teams went 11-7 after a bye week when the opponent played.
Oklahoma State’s games were rarely competitive in conference play. The exception often came following byes. Despite being on the road, with numerous pre-game and mid-game injuries, Oklahoma State lost by only three points in the final seconds to BYU, which finished third in the Big 12.
Oklahoma State’s other bye came against the Red Raiders, who finished seventh in the conference, and the Cowboys' eight-point loss was one of only two other one-possession losses this season. The third was a three-point loss to Utah, the only bad team on the Poke's schedule.
Of course, the Red Raiders had a bye week before their trip to Stillwater, which likely negated at least some of OSU’s advantage in that one.
The other opponents to take a bye before facing Oklahoma State include conference champ Arizona State, which won by 21, and ninth-place West Virginia, which won by 24 in the second-most lopsided game Oklahoma State played all season behind the 52-0 loss to Colorado.
Oklahoma State’s 2024 Big 12 schedule:
Place in Big 12: Loss by (Rest advantage)
Home vs 15. Utah: 3
At 8. Kansas State: 22
Home vs 9. WVU: 24 (West Virginia)
At 3. BYU: 3 (Oklahoma State)
At 5. Baylor: 10
Home vs 1. ASU: 21 (Arizona State)
At 6. TCU: 25
Home vs 7. TTU: 8 (Both had byes)
At 4. Colorado: 52
West Virginia, TCU and Colorado all secured their largest win (by point differential) in conference play against the Cowboys. Of course, Oklahoma State was a bright spot for most. That trio, alongside Kansas State and Arizona State, beat Oklahoma State by margins at least 10 points higher than six, seven or even all eight of its other conference games.
For the most part, the exceptions are the expected games. Only three Big 12 teams either beat BYU or played them closer than the three-point loss Oklahoma State suffered.
Although three teams beat Texas Tech only two beat the Red Raiders by even two points.
Only four teams played Utah better than Oklahoma State from a scoring differential standpoint. Utah actually played Houston and Iowa State equally close, came one point from beating BYU and beat UCF by 14.
The 10-point loss at Baylor was perhaps the biggest anomaly on the list, as it didn’t follow a bye week or come against a team that struggled. Plus, given the road environment and the uncharacteristic penalties Oklahoma State committed that game, it's surprising that OSU played Baylor closer than four of its peers.
The competitiveness of that game is even weirder considering it came in the middle of Oklahoma State's actual toughest three-game stretch, which ties similarly challenging three-week runs for Baylor, Utah and Kansas. Mathematically, those are the toughest any Big 12 team faced.
Then there's the fact that Oklahoma State ended up in the half of the conference receiving only four conference home games this time around.
Even if given an easier schedule, it’s unlikely Oklahoma State emerges as anything close to the Big 12 champion many expected before the season. Multiple opponents don’t have their best game of the year against the same team due to coincidence. However, it seems possible this team could have at least won a conference game or two against a more favorable schedule.
