Ordinarily, I'd save this for my annual "Way Too Early Line-Up Prediction" Post...
The added traffic on this site seems like a positive and a sign that OSU Wrestling is still important to a great many people.
In the immortal words of Cody Canada, "If I were President":
In order to be in OSU's Starting Line-Up, you must have the ability to:
1. Contend for a Big 12 Championship
2. All-American at minimum. You should be in the Top 8 at your weight class
Times have changed and OSU has been slow to adapt.
You have to appreciate John Smith's Michael Corleone level of loyalty.
That said, it seems the only way to begin to close the gap is to get guys who can go on Day 1. This will lead to some difficult, uncomfortable situations. The bottom line is, others in contention have figured out a way to make it work. Development looks different now. You have to maximize the Portal. OSU should use the Portal liberally for any All-American Candidate who is looking for a better place to compete. Izzak Olejnik is the template.
All that said, here is what it seems to look like as of right now, measuring everyone to the standard listed above (fairly or not).
125: Troy Sprately seems to have all the necessary ingredients to be a Big 12 Champ and AA for the duration of his career. His mistakes were typically mistakes of aggression that should be coachable. He has an appropriate level of nastiness and most importantly the will & determination to succeed. He is able to get in on legs that you need in this new era of the 3-point Takedown. To give you a sense of his ability, he has a Major Decision of the eventual National Champ under his belt. OSU should be fine at this weight for the next 3 years.
Sam Smith & Jayce Mullin are the only other guys on the current Roster to back up. Perhaps Zach Blankenship could make the cut; he's looking pretty thick and still recovering from what looks like shoulder surgery.
133: 1st weight where things start to look interesting. The only returning 133 on the Roster is Reece Witcraft. You've got J.J. McComas & Rin Sakamoto coming in as True Freshmen; which makes this a fascinating situation. Seems like you have to Redshirt Sakamoto with no Folkstyle experience. Unless this guy is just unbelievable from Day 1.
1. Can they compete for a Big 12 Championship?
2. Can they All-American?
I'm Reece Witcraft's biggest fan outside of any relatives. Can he beat Frost from Iowa State? That is the new standard.
What do you do if Nasir Bailey is sitting in the Portal? It seems highly irresponsible for OSU if they don't pursue. Will be an interesting test of how OSU is looking at things and how they plan to manage. Massive shoes to fill here, obviously.
Zach Blankenship & Jim Mullin provide depth.
141: Interesting situation #2; although the answer seems to be on the Roster. Tagen Jamison showed a lot of promise. Carter Young has shown a lot of promise. Cael Hughes is ultra-talented and has to be in the Line-Up. Who can cut and who can bulk? After a year at 141, Young looked smallish. He hasn't been 100% so likely not fair to him...he hasn't been able to beat Jamison or Jordan Williams. Its a good problem to have except for the fact that you might not have a spot for everyone. Someone is going to get left out unless everything goes perfectly in terms of finding the right weight classes. If you could get Hughes or Young to 133, that would help a ton; although that ship seems to have sailed. Could Jamison bulk to 149?
149: Interesting situation #3, although the answer seems to be on the Roster. In a perfect world, you've got "The Guy" in Jordan Williams who answers both Standards Questions. The problem is, as can be seen at 141; how do you fit in other talented athletes? Can Jordan bulk? Obviously you don't do it if that messes him up. So you have, potentially, Williams, Young, and Jamison?
You've got Cutter Sheets here as depth.
157: Interesting situation #4. Everyone (myself included) loves the Nolan Boyd/Preston Weigel types; and it looks like OSU has that kind of athlete in Teague Travis. It also seems like this is a placeholder situation LaDarion Lockett.
1. Can he compete for a Big 12 Championship? Potentially
2. Can he All-American? Hard to tell. He beat Top 10 guys this season. He also looked completely overmatched against Levi Haines.
This is yet another tough situation. Is there anyone that can bulk to 157? Is Teague done bulking? In the pre-portal/NIL era, it seems you let this one continue to play out/blossom. The challenge seems to be, does this allow OSU to compete at the highest level next year? Everyone would like the answer to be yes. This seems to be the perfect test case. What would Penn State and Iowa do here? Would they go into the season with someone like this starting or look to improve? Through different methods, it seems both would be looking for the best possible guy.
I don't know the answer, and it seems increasingly harder to say what the right thing is to do. Fans are demanding championships. Teague has everything you want and are looking for in an OSU wrestler with the possible exception of elite talent.
Other than the younger Manibog, you don't have anyone else on the Roster unless someone bulks.
165: Portal all the way. There is no one else on the Roster. At one point, Brayden Thompson was mentioned as a 165. That ship seems to have sailed. Lee Cotheran stated that Iowa is forcing Patrick Kennedy out. If that is the case; he should be Target #1. Back up Olejnik with another Olejnik. The wrestler from Binghamton has been mentioned as well. There is no other option than the Portal here and it should be an attractive landing spot for the most talented guy out there looking to move.
174: Interesting situation #5. We saw all sides from Brayden Thompson this year it seems. Being a Top 6 P4P Recruit, it feels like it would be a huge bust if he didn't work out somewhere. I like the idea of a Redshirt Year for him to get him to 184 and find a Portal Option. You've also got A.J. Heeg available who was ready to jump in when Thompson was struggling early. Both Thompson and Williams showed signs at certain points during the season; between the 2, Thompson seems to be a big more of a question mark. Will he make the necessary commitments to be great? We will see and time will tell. So the options seem to be either ride with him, Redshirt and either replace in the Portal or go with Heeg.
184: The new leader of the Team. Big 12 Champ and NCAA Finalist. Wish OSU had 5-6 more weights like this.
197: Interesting situation #6. What do you do with a guy like Luke Surber? How much has injury affected him this past season? This guy has beaten BOTH Elam Brothers. He seems like the ultimate OSU guy. Before this season, the answer to the 2 Standards Questions seemed to be Yes. After this season, who knows what to think. Is Christian Carroll going to be at this weight? If he is, and can't beat Surber, will he be willing to be patient? Can Surber beat Carroll? If Carroll is as good as his ranking, and comes in and commands the weight, that would simplify things. What if Surber returns to the form he showed prior to this year? In an ideal world, you have one final season of peak Surber with Carroll coming in behind.
285: Interesting situation #7: If Carroll is indeed at 197, it looks like OSU is headed for one more year of Konner Doucet. The difficult thing about Doucet is that the answer to the 2 Standards Questions unless proven otherwise is No. Which limits OSU's ability to both 1. Win a Big 12 Title and 2. Close the gap with Penn State. I don't know if you go Portal here for a 1 year guy. Merrill likely won't be ready to go on Day 1. Is Surber up for a bulk job again? Which path gives OSU the best chance to answer the 2 Standards Questions? This is murky at best and looking at it today, its hard to see any situation other than Doucet.
This makes guessing extremely difficult. So here goes on a Dual #1 Line-Up (Big 12 Champ Potential/AA Potential):
125: Spratley (Yes/Yes)
133: Witcraft (No/No) OR McComas (No/No)
141: Jamison (Yes/Yes) OR Hughes (Yes/Yes)
149: Williams (Yes/Yes)
157: Travis (Outside Chance with Downey & Chittum/Outside Chance)
165: Portal
174: Thompson (Yes, only Sax ahead of him/Outside Chance)
184: Plott (Yes/Yes)
197: Carroll (Yes, this weight COMLETEY clears out in the Big 12/Maybe?)
285: Doucet (No - Schultz & Heindselman, who has figured Doucet out/No)