NCAA tournament predictions/scoring

[turfpoke]

I started this thread to discuss how the Cowboys stack up in predicted tournament points and what would have to happen to make up the difference between teams above us.

Placement points
1st: 16
2nd: 12
3rd: 10
4th: 9
5th: 7
6th: 6
7th: 4
8th: 3

Advancement points:
Championship: 1
Wrestleback: 0.5

Bonus:
Fall: 2
Tech fall with NF: 1.5
Tech fall no NF/MD: 1

Last year we had a chance to finish 2nd ahead of Penn State if they had zero championships and we had 2.

Penn State finished with 113.5
Oklahoma State finished with 99.5

Penn State reversed their Big 10 losses at 141 and 174. That gained them 8 points.
RBY beat Daton that gained them a net 8 points on us.
184 Brooks won in OT versus Hidlay for another 4.
All of these are results that easily could have flipped the other way.
If they would have flipped we finish at 103.5 and Penn State finished at 97.5.

If you win your finals match do you get the 1 point advancement also? I’ve always been confused on that. Say Daton beats RBY by Dec, would it be plus 4 for 1st place and plus 1 for advancement for a total of plus 5?

With no bonus included currently Flo rankings show:
Penn St 112.5
Iowa 91.5
Michigan 77.5
Oklahoma State 70

How do we make up 42.5 points?

 

[turfpoke]

Last year:
Ok State 99.5
Mastrogiovanni scored 2.0
Fix scored 21.0 2nd
141-0.0
Boo 15.5 4th
Sheets 8.0 8th
Wittlake 15.5 4th
Plott 1.0
Geer 12.5 5th
Ferrari 21.5 1st
Harris 3.5 Rd of 12

Penn State 116.5
Howard 1.5
RBY 22.5 1st
Nick Lee 23.5 1st
149 0.0
Berge 3.0 Rd of 12
Joe Lee 0.0
Starocci 21.0 1st
Brooks 21.5 1st
Beard 9.5 7th
Kerkvliet 11.0 7th

 

[turfpoke]

This year’s predicted scoring according to Wrestle Stat. They predict placement+advancement+bonus. I’m not sure how they come up with 0.66 bonus, but not important.

They also have Iowa ahead of Penn State, but I think Penn State is the favorite.

Ok State/points/WS ranking
Mastro 2.66 9th
Fix 23.75 1st
Young 0 31st
Gfeller 2 9th
Sheets 1.5 16th
Wittlake 5.5 8th
Plott 2.8 12th
Geer 2.0 10th
Ferrari 20.94 1st
Surber 0.0 31st
Total 61.2

Penn State/points/WS ranking
Hilderbrandt 10.0 5th
RBY 17.63 3rd
Nick Lee 17.5 2nd
Bartlett 0.0 19th
Negron 0.0 67th
Berge 1.5 13th
Starocci 15.14 4th
Brooks 18.4 2nd
Dean 17.5 2nd
Kerkvliet 8.94 7th
Total 106.6

 

[turfpoke]

We need Wittlake and Geer to finish where they were last year. They scored 28.0. This year predicted for 7.5. There is 21.5 points.

Need Mastro, Plott, Young, Gfeller, Sheets and Surber to get us around 40 points combined. Are one or two of these guys going to shock the world and make it to the semis or finals? We almost need 2 of them to get on a Semifinal run. We’ve seen it before. Would it really surprise anyone if Plott or Gfeller made the Semis?

Crazy stuff happens in the NCAA tournament. Injuries, weight cutting, illness, matchups, etc all come into play.
Need AJ and Fix to win it for 45 points.
45+28+40=113 points. That will put us in the hunt.

As far as Penn State goes they currently have 4 champs and a 2 at 197 pounds. We need them to underperform. Plain and simple. If one of these guys cannot go for some reason there goes 20 points.

Did anyone expect Alex Marinelli from Iowa as the 1 seed to score 4.0 points? That is what can happen after a long season. Did anyone expect Josh Kindig to make the finals in 2014 as the 11 seed. He was probably predicted to score 2 team points. He scored 16.0.

 

[Wrassler17]

There's no advancement point for winning in the finals, you just get the 4. Also, I believe back points are no longer required for a tech fall.

42.5 points is a big deficit. Even 2 unexpected champs wouldn't make up the difference. But maybe the biggest challenge is that 3 teams are projected higher. So if Brooks lost in the early rounds, it would probably help Michigan more than us. If Starocci lost early, it would probably help Iowa more.

I think around 120 points will be needed to win the title. So we'll likely need around 60 points from Daton, AJ & Wittlake and then another 60 from the other 7 guys.

 

[leecothran]

Need Plott and Wittlake to finish top 4. I think both are capable... both just need their confidence.

 

[Wrassler17]

Any status update on Wittlake? Did he weigh in yesterday?

 

[turfpoke]

Any status update on Wittlake? Did he weigh in yesterday?

I thought I heard them say he weighed in. I also think I saw him on the lineup sheet that was tweeted out. Travis has some big matches coming up. O’Toole and Marinelli.

 

[FHOSU]

I thought I heard them say he weighed in. I also think I saw him on the lineup sheet that was tweeted out. Travis has some big matches coming up. O’Toole and Marinelli.

Yep, Wittlake and Harper were introduced in the pregame introductions.

 

[Wrassler17]

Willie has his predictions for Nationals on Rokfin. Calls it his crystal ball and updates it every few weeks. Here's what he's got...
PSU 128
Iowa 99
Michigan 95
OSU 82

In terms of placements, PSU vs the good guys looks like this ..
125: PSU 5th, Trevor 7th
133: 2nd, Daton 1st
141: 1st, Carter DNP
149: R12, G DNP
157: DNP, Wyatt R16
165: DNP (before Berge), Travis 7th
174: 1st, Dustin 7th
184: 1st, Dakota 7th
197: 2nd, AJ 1st
285: 5th, Luke DNP

To realistically make up the difference, we'd need some underperformance by PSU. It's not crazy to think they don't place at 125, 149, 157 & 165. Then at 197, Dean could be anywhere from 2nd to the blood round. If he also doesn't place, things get a little more interesting. Betting against their 133, 141, 174, 184 & 285 is a little tougher.

For us we need Daton & AJ to win obviously. Then Trevor, Travis, Dustin & Dakota to go from 7th to top 5? It's possible. And then G & Wyatt to break through. G is a real sleeper IMO.

 

[chasepollard]

Willie has his predictions for Nationals on Rokfin. Calls it his crystal ball and updates it every few weeks. Here's what he's got...
PSU 128
Iowa 99
Michigan 95
OSU 82

In terms of placements, PSU vs the good guys looks like this ..
125: PSU 5th, Trevor 7th
133: 2nd, Daton 1st
141: 1st, Carter DNP
149: R12, G DNP
157: DNP, Wyatt R16
165: DNP (before Berge), Travis 7th
174: 1st, Dustin 7th
184: 1st, Dakota 7th
197: 2nd, AJ 1st
285: 5th, Luke DNP

To realistically make up the difference, we'd need some underperformance by PSU. It's not crazy to think they don't place at 125, 149, 157 & 165. Then at 197, Dean could be anywhere from 2nd to the blood round. If he also doesn't place, things get a little more interesting. Betting against their 133, 141, 174, 184 & 285 is a little tougher.

For us we need Daton & AJ to win obviously. Then Trevor, Travis, Dustin & Dakota to go from 7th to top 5? It's possible. And then G & Wyatt to break through. G is a real sleeper IMO.

Here's how I see it...even though the only matches I get watch go live for 10 seconds, then buffer for 30 seconds.

125 PSU 8th/Mastro 5th
133 PSU 1st/Fix 2nd
141 PSU 1st/Young R16
149 PSU R16/G 7th
157 PSU DNP, Sheets 8th
165 PSU 4th, Wittlake 5th
174 PSU 1st, Plott 3rd
184 PSU 1st, Charlie Hustle 3rd
197 PSU 8th, Showtime Night Rider 1st
285 PSU 5th, Luke R16

That gives us not winning still...

 

[cowboychuck]

Here's how I see it...even though the only matches I get watch go live for 10 seconds, then buffer for 30 seconds.

125 PSU 8th/Mastro 5th
133 PSU 1st/Fix 2nd
141 PSU 1st/Young R16
149 PSU R16/G 7th
157 PSU DNP, Sheets 8th
165 PSU 4th, Wittlake 5th
174 PSU 1st, Plott 3rd
184 PSU 1st, Charlie Hustle 3rd
197 PSU 8th, Showtime Night Rider 1st
285 PSU 5th, Luke R16

That gives us not winning still...

You have Brady Berge getting 4th? That would be one heck of a tournament for him in a very stacked weight.

 

[chasepollard]

You have Brady Berge getting 4th? That would be one heck of a tournament for him in a very stacked weight.

That is true...put him at 8th.