How Many College Football Head Coaching Hires Actually Work?
With all the college football coaching changes happening, how many coaches last at least 3 years and win 60% of their games?- PETE FIUTAK
- NOV 28, 2023
How Many College Football New Head Coaching Hires Work?
I don’t know Jonathan Smith.He’s supposedly a good guy, and hopefully he becomes the new Mark Dantonio for a Michigan State program that would love nothing more than to be settled at head coach for the next decade.
I know Jeff Lebby well enough to spell it Leddy every single time I type it - including just now. Hopefully he becomes a superstar at Mississippi State and turns it into an SEC superpower.
Hopefully Mike Elko is the one to finally make Texas A&M as good as all of its promise and potential.
Hopefully all the new college football head coaching hires pay off, do wonders for their respective schools, make the fan bases happy, and …
Hopefully the buyouts are only in the low seven figures instead of eight.
Nothing against Smith, or Elko, or Lebby, or Leddy - their great-great-grandkids are set for life - but a bulk of the new hires aren’t going to work.
Maybe they will. Maybe one becomes the next Dabo, or Lincoln, or Kirby.
The odds are far better, though, that they become the next Holgorsen, or Arnett, or … Elko, and it does go well, and the coach goes off to something bigger.
It’s really, really, really, really, REALLY hard to be a winning college football head coach.
This is why if you have one who wins a whole bunch - speaking to you, Penn State and Ohio State fans - you thank your personal gods that you have a guy who can bring Ws, and realize that it isn’t normal.
As grouchy as many are right now, ask USC fans what life was like before Lincoln Riley showed up. Ask Texas fans how hard it is to win at a big-time spot. Ask Florida’s fans.
Hopefully you did a wellness check on your Nebraska loved ones last weekend.
To be loose about it, at the higher levels - and not at a traditional Power Five doormat program - the coach should 1) last at least three seasons, and 2) win six out of every ten games. That doesn’t seem like too much to ask for, right?
60% keeps the heat off. 60% gets you to a restaurant-quality bowl. 60% means there are enough wins to bring hope for the near future. Dip below that, and usually a head coach - especially at a big spot - is a three-game losing streak away from uh-oh.
Of course, some programs have a hard time winning big on a regular basis, much less get to a 60% winning clip.
It’s hard to say that the latest Greg Schiano (39.1%) run at Rutgers isn’t “working” after he got the program to a bowl game. Missouri sure is happy with Eliah Drinkwitz (56.3%) right now, and no one at Tulane wants Willie Fritz (54%) to go anywhere.
However, three seasons, 60% wins. That might seem like a low bar - especially for the big programs - but it's harder to hit than you might think.
Let's start here. How many college football head coaches have been at the same school for more than five years? With Rick Stockstill getting whacked by Middle Tennessee, and Dana Dimel seeing the door at UTEP, we’re at 29.
29 out of 133 coaches have lived up to the stability-myth that every athletic department keeps striving for.
Now, out of those 29, how many have won 60% or more of their games? Again, that shouldn’t be a tough mark to hit. Win 7ish games a year. Not 13-0, not 11-2.
11.
A mere 11 college football head coaches have won 60% or more of their games at the same spot for at least five seasons.
Nick Saban, Alabama 87.7%
Kirby Smart, Georgia 86.1%
Dabo Swinney, Clemson 79.7%
Jim Harbaugh, Michigan 76.9%
KC Keeler, Sam Houston 71%
James Franklin, Penn State 69.8%
Jason Candle, Toledo 66.3%
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State 67.9%
Kyle Whittingham, Utah 67.5%
Kirk Ferentz, Iowa 62.6%
That means 18 head coaches have hung on to their gigs for more than five years, even though they’re losing more than at least four out of every ten games. Just nine of them won half their games, but can’t get to 60%.
Yeah, most of these hires “worked” but they aren't at 60%.
Kalani Sitake, BYU 59.8%
Dave Doeren, NC State 58.7%
Pat Narduzzi, Pitt 56.5%
Jeff Monken, Army 55.6%
Willie Fritz, Tulane 54%
Mark Stoops, Kentucky 53.3%
Matt Campbell, Iowa State 53%
Craig Bohl, Wyoming 50%
Chip Kelly, UCLA 50%
And six coaches are still around after five years, even though they haven’t won half of their games, but there's a reason. These are five Group of Five programs happy to have a big hit every once in a while, and a Power Five gig that would probably be open right now if not for a late run in a 6-6 regular season.
Shawn Elliott, Georgia State 47.6%.
Chuck Martin, Miami University 47.4%
Justin Wilcox, Cal 46.2%
Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan 43.7%
Brent Brennan, San Jose State 42%
Mike Bloomgren, Rice 32.8%
So let’s take this even further.
At the moment, just 51 of the 133 college football programs will go into next season with the same head coach for three seasons or more. Basically, three out of every five coaches who will be hired in this latest cycle probably won’t be around to start the 2027 season.
Out of the 22 current head coaches who have been in the same spot for the last three or four years, nine have won at least 60% of their games.
Ryan Day, Ohio State 88.9%
Curt Cignetti, James Madison 82.6%
Jeff Traylor, UTSA 73.1%
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss 68.8%
Shawn Clark, Appalachian State 66.7%
Mike Norvell, Florida State 65.2%
Chris Klieman, Kansas State 61.3%
Ryan Silverfield, Memphis 61.2%
Tyson Helton, WKU 60%
What does it all mean?
1) Out of 133 college football programs, a mere 20 have been at the same spot for three years or more AND …
2) Succeeded at a 60% winning clip. Even rougher, out of the 20 head coaches who have been at the same spot and succeeded at a reasonable level …
3) Day, Ferentz, Franklin, Gundy, Harbaugh, Kiffin, Klieman, Norvell, Saban, Smart, Swinney, Whittingham. That’s it for the 60% win Power Five coaches. Just 12.
So if you have a head coach who’s winning regularly, relax. You’ve got one.
If your school just hired a new head man, don’t expect anything right away, give it three years, and hope by then he won half of his games or more.
And then be prepared to do this all over again very, very soon.
