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STILLWATER — Mike Gundy prides himself as a Nostradamus of college football. Not without reason. Some of Gundy’s predictions come true, notably the Pac-12 emigres to the Big 12.
And the OSU football coach delivered another forecast to the Tulsa World this week: college football’s migration to a National Football League model is coming at warp speed. Gundy’s crystal ball: a 32-team super conference, perhaps by 2027.
“I bet it could happen by ’27,” Gundy said. “I’m just telling you. People are telling me that behind the scenes.”
Gundy says the acceleration centers around the House vs. NCAA settlement lawsuit. Judge Claudia Wilken this week declined to provide final approval of a deal between the NCAA and plaintiff attorneys representing past, present and future Division I athletes. She asked lawyers on both sides to address her remaining concerns within a week.
Most analysts believe Wilken will OK the deal, which could resolve antitrust lawsuits and require NCAA schools to pay $2.75 billion in back pay to athletes, allow schools to share revenue with players on a per-school cap and implement new roster limits.
But Gundy’s intel says the judge will reject the settlement and create more instability in college sports.
“I don’t think it’s going to be what we thought it was,” Gundy said. “And now the challenge is, where is the money going to come from?”
Gundy’s theory: the money will come from a super conference. Thirty-two of the biggest brands in college football, breaking away from their conference affiliations.
“They’re going to go to a 32-team super conference (structured) like the NFL,” Gundy said. “It’s not going to be long. Because it’s the only way it (major-college football) can survive. That’s going to happen.”
For the record, Gundy believes OSU will be in the 32. Our man Bill Haisten will address that issue in the Sunday Tulsa World.
I’ll address Gundy’s overall theory. And while it seems treacherous to counter Nostradamus, I don’t buy the 32-team super conference. At least not now.
In some ways, we’ve already got a super conference. A 68-team super conference. All the members of the Southeastern, Big Ten, Big 12 and Atlantic Coast conferences, plus Notre Dame. They’ve got the vast majority of money and resources, as it pertains to attracting and retaining athletes who literally now are professional free agents.
If you want to be even more direct, we’ve already got a 34-team super structure, with the SEC and the Big Ten, whose revenues supercede those of the Big 12 and ACC by tens of millions of dollars annually.
I see no thirst or motivation from the SEC or the Big Ten to concede that status. I see no thirst or motivation from ESPN or Fox whittle down the inventory and give 32 schools all the negotiating power.
Yes, Alabama and Georgia could make even more money by cutting ties with Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Sure, Ohio State and Michigan are in some ways carrying Northwestern and Purdue.
But all the leagues have contracts that go beyond 2027, and so far, the financial bonanzas for the traditional powers have been more than sufficient to retain longtime conference ties.
There are other reasons for the SEC and Big Ten to remain intact. Namely status and authority.
The SEC, especially, has marketed its way to magnificent heights. The SEC brand is powerful. Beyond team trademarks — Yankees, Lakers, Dodgers, Chiefs, Cowboys — the SEC probably is trumped by only the NFL and the NBA, in American sport.
What is commissioner Greg Sankey’s motivation to give up that real estate?
Speaking of Sankey, he’s built the most authoritative organization in college sports. The SEC, not the NCAA, stands atop college football in terms of direction and clout. Sankey and Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti run the sport.
Gundy’s response?
“The issue we’re having is, we don’t have any leadership, because they don’t have a commissioner” overseeing all of college football, Gundy said.
Gundy said college football needs Nick Saban or Mack Brown to become the czar of college football and get the four major conferences together to cooperate.
“My honest opinion on it is … somebody would give them the authority, because of who they are and their long-term history and their knowledge,” Gundy said. He said Saban or Brown could persuade the power-brokers to compromise for the long-term good of the sport.
“There’s enough money to go around for everybody, if they’ll do it right,” Gundy said.
Again, I don’t see it. Saban is impressively demanding and Brown’s charm knows no bounds. But if they could get the SEC and Big Ten to relinquish power, standing and money, send them to the Middle East pronto. I don’t see Sankey or Petitti giving up their standing, and I don’t see their schools being remotely interested.
“None of ‘em want to give up what they have,” Gundy admitted. “None of ‘em want to say, ‘hey look, let’s work together.’”
Back to Judge Wilken. Her requests for further compromise include:
The collective bargaining issue is something the schools have fought but really is the only end game that makes any sense. Without collective bargaining, the lawsuits never will end.
Maybe what Gundy really means is that collective bargaining will come only from a new organization, outside the NCAA. The problem in the House v. NCAA case, and most any lawsuit that seeks some kind of settlement instead of outright judgment, is that the NCAA is on the hook but has no power to make change. The SEC and the Big Ten are calling all shots.
“There’s nobody in charge,” Gundy said. “We’ll see what happens in a couple of years. I’m telling you. What we do is not recognizable from what you knew even three years ago, and I think it’s going to be that way again in two years, because everybody’s going to get overloaded.
“It’s going to collective bargaining, it’s going to be an NFL system, because nothing else works.”
I’ll give Nostradamus some credit. It’s going to collective bargaining. Maybe even an NFL-type system. But the SEC and Big Ten will survive as separate entities. We’ll see about the Big 12 and ACC.
Coming Sunday: Would OSU make the cut for a 32-team super conference?
Berry Tramel: Mike Gundy predicts soon-coming super conference of 32 teams
- Apr 11, 2025 Updated Apr 12, 2025
Berry Tramel
Sports ColumnistSTILLWATER — Mike Gundy prides himself as a Nostradamus of college football. Not without reason. Some of Gundy’s predictions come true, notably the Pac-12 emigres to the Big 12.
And the OSU football coach delivered another forecast to the Tulsa World this week: college football’s migration to a National Football League model is coming at warp speed. Gundy’s crystal ball: a 32-team super conference, perhaps by 2027.
“I bet it could happen by ’27,” Gundy said. “I’m just telling you. People are telling me that behind the scenes.”
Gundy says the acceleration centers around the House vs. NCAA settlement lawsuit. Judge Claudia Wilken this week declined to provide final approval of a deal between the NCAA and plaintiff attorneys representing past, present and future Division I athletes. She asked lawyers on both sides to address her remaining concerns within a week.
Most analysts believe Wilken will OK the deal, which could resolve antitrust lawsuits and require NCAA schools to pay $2.75 billion in back pay to athletes, allow schools to share revenue with players on a per-school cap and implement new roster limits.
But Gundy’s intel says the judge will reject the settlement and create more instability in college sports.
“I don’t think it’s going to be what we thought it was,” Gundy said. “And now the challenge is, where is the money going to come from?”
Gundy’s theory: the money will come from a super conference. Thirty-two of the biggest brands in college football, breaking away from their conference affiliations.
“They’re going to go to a 32-team super conference (structured) like the NFL,” Gundy said. “It’s not going to be long. Because it’s the only way it (major-college football) can survive. That’s going to happen.”
For the record, Gundy believes OSU will be in the 32. Our man Bill Haisten will address that issue in the Sunday Tulsa World.
I’ll address Gundy’s overall theory. And while it seems treacherous to counter Nostradamus, I don’t buy the 32-team super conference. At least not now.
In some ways, we’ve already got a super conference. A 68-team super conference. All the members of the Southeastern, Big Ten, Big 12 and Atlantic Coast conferences, plus Notre Dame. They’ve got the vast majority of money and resources, as it pertains to attracting and retaining athletes who literally now are professional free agents.
If you want to be even more direct, we’ve already got a 34-team super structure, with the SEC and the Big Ten, whose revenues supercede those of the Big 12 and ACC by tens of millions of dollars annually.
I see no thirst or motivation from the SEC or the Big Ten to concede that status. I see no thirst or motivation from ESPN or Fox whittle down the inventory and give 32 schools all the negotiating power.
Yes, Alabama and Georgia could make even more money by cutting ties with Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Sure, Ohio State and Michigan are in some ways carrying Northwestern and Purdue.
But all the leagues have contracts that go beyond 2027, and so far, the financial bonanzas for the traditional powers have been more than sufficient to retain longtime conference ties.
There are other reasons for the SEC and Big Ten to remain intact. Namely status and authority.
The SEC, especially, has marketed its way to magnificent heights. The SEC brand is powerful. Beyond team trademarks — Yankees, Lakers, Dodgers, Chiefs, Cowboys — the SEC probably is trumped by only the NFL and the NBA, in American sport.
What is commissioner Greg Sankey’s motivation to give up that real estate?
Speaking of Sankey, he’s built the most authoritative organization in college sports. The SEC, not the NCAA, stands atop college football in terms of direction and clout. Sankey and Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti run the sport.
Gundy’s response?
“The issue we’re having is, we don’t have any leadership, because they don’t have a commissioner” overseeing all of college football, Gundy said.
Gundy said college football needs Nick Saban or Mack Brown to become the czar of college football and get the four major conferences together to cooperate.
“My honest opinion on it is … somebody would give them the authority, because of who they are and their long-term history and their knowledge,” Gundy said. He said Saban or Brown could persuade the power-brokers to compromise for the long-term good of the sport.
“There’s enough money to go around for everybody, if they’ll do it right,” Gundy said.
Again, I don’t see it. Saban is impressively demanding and Brown’s charm knows no bounds. But if they could get the SEC and Big Ten to relinquish power, standing and money, send them to the Middle East pronto. I don’t see Sankey or Petitti giving up their standing, and I don’t see their schools being remotely interested.
“None of ‘em want to give up what they have,” Gundy admitted. “None of ‘em want to say, ‘hey look, let’s work together.’”
Back to Judge Wilken. Her requests for further compromise include:
- Adding collective bargaining with athletes to the NCAA structure;
- Explaining why future athletes should be bound to the 10-year deal;
- Phasing-in the roster limits, rather than an immediate slice — for football, the plan was to get to 105 this season.
The collective bargaining issue is something the schools have fought but really is the only end game that makes any sense. Without collective bargaining, the lawsuits never will end.
Maybe what Gundy really means is that collective bargaining will come only from a new organization, outside the NCAA. The problem in the House v. NCAA case, and most any lawsuit that seeks some kind of settlement instead of outright judgment, is that the NCAA is on the hook but has no power to make change. The SEC and the Big Ten are calling all shots.
“There’s nobody in charge,” Gundy said. “We’ll see what happens in a couple of years. I’m telling you. What we do is not recognizable from what you knew even three years ago, and I think it’s going to be that way again in two years, because everybody’s going to get overloaded.
“It’s going to collective bargaining, it’s going to be an NFL system, because nothing else works.”
I’ll give Nostradamus some credit. It’s going to collective bargaining. Maybe even an NFL-type system. But the SEC and Big Ten will survive as separate entities. We’ll see about the Big 12 and ACC.
Coming Sunday: Would OSU make the cut for a 32-team super conference?
