In light of the recruiting conversation this week, I thought it would be fun to look back at the most recent class to finish eligibility for OSU football and consider their careers in light of their Rivals ranking and see if some insight can be gleaned.
There were 3-4* players in that class: Ra'Shaad Samples, Marcell Ateman, and Jerel Morrow. Samples combined career numbers for his career at OSU and Houston: 3 receptions for 11 yards. Granted, his career at Houston ended early due to concussions, but he never threatened to be a breakout player. Now his recruiting connections have landed him a spot on the UT staff in some minor capacity. Marcel Ateman lived up to his billing and has a shot at carving out an NFL career after a very productive stay in Stillwater. Jerel Morrow was a major contributor on special teams and rotational player on defense, but never really fulfilled the 4* hype. That said, this guy was a fantastic teammate on and off the field and a very good student. The hit rate for difference makers was 1 in 3; however, three players in the group below were also considered 4* prospects and none of them hit, so the total hit rate of difference making players from this group was 1 in 7 with 2 additional players providing rotational help and special teams play.
The next group of 3* players (ranked 5.7): Naim Mustafaa, Deric Robertson, Darius Curry, Vincent Taylor, and Zachary Crabtree. Of these, the first three were considered 4* recruits nationally by other national outlets. None of them were impact players. Robertson was much hyped but could not crack the lineup after 2-years in the program and left in the summer of 2015 for Southwestern Oklahoma State. Naim Mustafaa (Reggie Rutland's son) wound up leaving three D-1 programs early (OSU, Miami, and Southern Miss) with pretty much nothing to show for his career. The two that were consensus high 3* recruits hit in a major way. Zac Crabtree and Vincent Taylor were difference makers for their college team at positions of great need during their careers. The batting average there is 2 for 2.
The third groups of 3* players (mid range 3*s ranked 5.6): Taylor Lewis, Sam Wren, Corion Webster, Jack Kurzu, and Ben Hughes. Sam Wren was a solid contributor at OSU coming out of junior college. He was able to get some NFL mini camp invites, so he had some talent to go with productivity. The Juco score was 1 for 1. Taylor Lewis did not make an impact before leaving. Corion Webster flunked out of school after his first year and didn't do anything in football afterward, moving back home to Atlanta, TX. Jack Kurzu was hampered by injuries. Ben Hughes completed his eligibility and saw action in only a few games over his career. Among the mid-level high schoolers, none hit. This was 0 for 4.
The fourth group of 3* players (low 3*s, ranked 5.5): Jesse Robinson, Tre Flowers, Ben Grogan, Jordan Sterns, Ofa Hautau, and Vili Leveni. All 6 of these players, 1 JUCO and 5 High School players all played major roles on the team. That is a 100% hit rate for major contributors.
The fifth group included all other players (ranked 5.4 and below): Dawson Bassett, Brandon Garrett, Jaxon Salinas, and Colby Hegwood. These are guys that were taken either late or in trying to address a position of need. Unfortunately, none of them had major roles on the field, leaving the hit rate 0 for 4.
Here are a few things I take away from this:
1) The 2013 recruiting class as a whole was not particularly deep or broad in terms of talent.
2) The types of recruiting profile groups that had the most hits on a percentage basis were: junior college players, high 3* prospects and low 3* prospects.
3) The types of recruiting profile groups that did not fare well were: 4* players on Rivals, 3* players on Rivals that were 4* players elsewhere, mid 3* players, and 2* and below players.
The group that really stands out to me that bears consideration is the abnormally high hit rate and the overall quality of the low 3* group. In my opinion, these are the type of players that Coach Gundy has built a recruiting profile around. Looking at that group in particular might be of some interest. The following year, this category would include people like Cole Walterscheid, Chris Lacy, Justin Phillips, and James Washington. Sione Palelei and Matthew Mucha would be in that class as well, but their careers never got going due to injuries, so it is hard to know what the hit rate could have been, but 4 for 6 would still be pretty high considering that 4* guys like Keenen Brown and Chris Hardeman, and Devon Thomas missed. That low 3* group still had a higher hit rate. Now, Tyreek Hill and eventually Mason Rudolph became the true difference makers that were needed from high profile recruits. Hill was a 5* JUCO kid (again showing the staff's success with that category), while Rudolph committed as a 3* and was later elevated by Rivals to 4*.
Here is my takeaway from this and perhaps it helps explain some of my other comments. There are just as many "hit" players overall in the 3* talent pool as those rated higher, but on the aggregate nationally, they "hit" on a lower percentage. On a micro-level the key is which players in that category are you actually signing. Putting together back to back 4* receivers like Rashad Samples and Keenen Brown looks good on paper but not as good as Chris Lacy and James Washington on the field. The key is which particular prospects do you sign from the recruiting pool. I don't buy for a minute that Lacy and Washington's talent was merely developed. They had the talent to be developed when they were signed. Which staff properly identified it and was capable of doing something with it? The answer is the same staff that missed on Samples and Brown. I believe that OSU has been fine tuning recruiting strategy over the past few years to increase the overall hit rate by focusing more on these type of players in order to build better depth of talent into the program and then to chase after a handful of obvious difference makers to finish the class.
In 2015 the headliners were Darrion Daniels, Louis Brown, and John Kolar while Jalen McCleskey, Jordan Burton, Marcus Keyes, and Za'Carrius Green came from that 'outlier' group. In 2016 the only 4* player according to Rivals was Tramonda Moore who wound up ineligible. The low 3* class was comprised of Dequinton Osborne, Teven Jenkins, Madre Harper, Dylan Galloway, Matt Kegel, Dillon Stoner, Shane Richards, and Cameron Murray. Ok, Harper got kicked off the team for fighting (but demonstrated he could play), and everyone else has basically proven that they can play at this level. The 2016 class had way less star power but way fewer busts overall than earlier classes.
So, it will be interesting to watch the development of guys like: Thabo Mwaniki, Malcolm Rodriguez, Tracin Wallace, Patrick McKaufman, Brenden Evers, Fua Leilua, Baron Odom, Hunter Anthony, Jarrick Bernard, Hunter Woodard, and Jake Ross because they compromise that same class of recruiting profile that seems to be highly effective for OSU.
There were 3-4* players in that class: Ra'Shaad Samples, Marcell Ateman, and Jerel Morrow. Samples combined career numbers for his career at OSU and Houston: 3 receptions for 11 yards. Granted, his career at Houston ended early due to concussions, but he never threatened to be a breakout player. Now his recruiting connections have landed him a spot on the UT staff in some minor capacity. Marcel Ateman lived up to his billing and has a shot at carving out an NFL career after a very productive stay in Stillwater. Jerel Morrow was a major contributor on special teams and rotational player on defense, but never really fulfilled the 4* hype. That said, this guy was a fantastic teammate on and off the field and a very good student. The hit rate for difference makers was 1 in 3; however, three players in the group below were also considered 4* prospects and none of them hit, so the total hit rate of difference making players from this group was 1 in 7 with 2 additional players providing rotational help and special teams play.
The next group of 3* players (ranked 5.7): Naim Mustafaa, Deric Robertson, Darius Curry, Vincent Taylor, and Zachary Crabtree. Of these, the first three were considered 4* recruits nationally by other national outlets. None of them were impact players. Robertson was much hyped but could not crack the lineup after 2-years in the program and left in the summer of 2015 for Southwestern Oklahoma State. Naim Mustafaa (Reggie Rutland's son) wound up leaving three D-1 programs early (OSU, Miami, and Southern Miss) with pretty much nothing to show for his career. The two that were consensus high 3* recruits hit in a major way. Zac Crabtree and Vincent Taylor were difference makers for their college team at positions of great need during their careers. The batting average there is 2 for 2.
The third groups of 3* players (mid range 3*s ranked 5.6): Taylor Lewis, Sam Wren, Corion Webster, Jack Kurzu, and Ben Hughes. Sam Wren was a solid contributor at OSU coming out of junior college. He was able to get some NFL mini camp invites, so he had some talent to go with productivity. The Juco score was 1 for 1. Taylor Lewis did not make an impact before leaving. Corion Webster flunked out of school after his first year and didn't do anything in football afterward, moving back home to Atlanta, TX. Jack Kurzu was hampered by injuries. Ben Hughes completed his eligibility and saw action in only a few games over his career. Among the mid-level high schoolers, none hit. This was 0 for 4.
The fourth group of 3* players (low 3*s, ranked 5.5): Jesse Robinson, Tre Flowers, Ben Grogan, Jordan Sterns, Ofa Hautau, and Vili Leveni. All 6 of these players, 1 JUCO and 5 High School players all played major roles on the team. That is a 100% hit rate for major contributors.
The fifth group included all other players (ranked 5.4 and below): Dawson Bassett, Brandon Garrett, Jaxon Salinas, and Colby Hegwood. These are guys that were taken either late or in trying to address a position of need. Unfortunately, none of them had major roles on the field, leaving the hit rate 0 for 4.
Here are a few things I take away from this:
1) The 2013 recruiting class as a whole was not particularly deep or broad in terms of talent.
2) The types of recruiting profile groups that had the most hits on a percentage basis were: junior college players, high 3* prospects and low 3* prospects.
3) The types of recruiting profile groups that did not fare well were: 4* players on Rivals, 3* players on Rivals that were 4* players elsewhere, mid 3* players, and 2* and below players.
The group that really stands out to me that bears consideration is the abnormally high hit rate and the overall quality of the low 3* group. In my opinion, these are the type of players that Coach Gundy has built a recruiting profile around. Looking at that group in particular might be of some interest. The following year, this category would include people like Cole Walterscheid, Chris Lacy, Justin Phillips, and James Washington. Sione Palelei and Matthew Mucha would be in that class as well, but their careers never got going due to injuries, so it is hard to know what the hit rate could have been, but 4 for 6 would still be pretty high considering that 4* guys like Keenen Brown and Chris Hardeman, and Devon Thomas missed. That low 3* group still had a higher hit rate. Now, Tyreek Hill and eventually Mason Rudolph became the true difference makers that were needed from high profile recruits. Hill was a 5* JUCO kid (again showing the staff's success with that category), while Rudolph committed as a 3* and was later elevated by Rivals to 4*.
Here is my takeaway from this and perhaps it helps explain some of my other comments. There are just as many "hit" players overall in the 3* talent pool as those rated higher, but on the aggregate nationally, they "hit" on a lower percentage. On a micro-level the key is which players in that category are you actually signing. Putting together back to back 4* receivers like Rashad Samples and Keenen Brown looks good on paper but not as good as Chris Lacy and James Washington on the field. The key is which particular prospects do you sign from the recruiting pool. I don't buy for a minute that Lacy and Washington's talent was merely developed. They had the talent to be developed when they were signed. Which staff properly identified it and was capable of doing something with it? The answer is the same staff that missed on Samples and Brown. I believe that OSU has been fine tuning recruiting strategy over the past few years to increase the overall hit rate by focusing more on these type of players in order to build better depth of talent into the program and then to chase after a handful of obvious difference makers to finish the class.
In 2015 the headliners were Darrion Daniels, Louis Brown, and John Kolar while Jalen McCleskey, Jordan Burton, Marcus Keyes, and Za'Carrius Green came from that 'outlier' group. In 2016 the only 4* player according to Rivals was Tramonda Moore who wound up ineligible. The low 3* class was comprised of Dequinton Osborne, Teven Jenkins, Madre Harper, Dylan Galloway, Matt Kegel, Dillon Stoner, Shane Richards, and Cameron Murray. Ok, Harper got kicked off the team for fighting (but demonstrated he could play), and everyone else has basically proven that they can play at this level. The 2016 class had way less star power but way fewer busts overall than earlier classes.
So, it will be interesting to watch the development of guys like: Thabo Mwaniki, Malcolm Rodriguez, Tracin Wallace, Patrick McKaufman, Brenden Evers, Fua Leilua, Baron Odom, Hunter Anthony, Jarrick Bernard, Hunter Woodard, and Jake Ross because they compromise that same class of recruiting profile that seems to be highly effective for OSU.
